thedude11's Blog

          Severe Weather Outbreak Friday?   Well, the models have been showing this severe thunderstorm possibility for a while now and signs are pointing that way. A strong cold front coming in from the Midwest, already giving hail and tornadoes to them, will be heading into our area. Ahead of the front will be a warm, humid flow. Highs Friday could easily touch 80 degrees. Remember the record for Friday in Philadelphia is exactly 80 degrees and we have a shot of breaking it. Once the front moves into the region, we could experience heavy downpours, lighting, hail along with gusty winds. This is Friday so we I will keep an eye on it for you. We clear out for the weekend and it looks spectacular with highs both days in the 70's with sunshine.

          Rainmaker Next Week?   Another possible rain maker might be in the books for next week. The models coninue to show a wave of low pressure developing along a cold front. The low the heads into Southern Canada after giving us a prolonged period of rainfall. This looks to be a Wednesday event. More on this later.

Halloween looks..     The past model runs have shown October 31st dry and relatively chilly. The last model run in shows a strong noreaster with a cold, heavy rain. This is GFS Fantasy land so it is too hard to tell now. I will have more on this forecast in a week.

Heat Stays

Today, we hit around 91 degrees. Tomorrow should be a tad higher as well as Friday. That will make a heatwave. But it won't stop there, it will last into this weekend and possibly into early next week.

Humidity Returns

Tomorrow, it will fell a bit more sticky than today. It will continue to do that everyday until this weekend. This weekend should be pretty opressive with highs in the 90's and high humidity/dew points.

Tropics Come Alive

Chantal has now become extra tropical and will continue to weaken as it heads into cooler waters. No need to watch her anymore as she becomes nothing more then a threat to Iceland. There is two other disturbances that need to be monitored for development. One about 300 miles or so east of the Windward Islands. During the past few days this system has gained covection, and lost it. It has repeated this cycle for a few days now. It will continue to head into dry air and it will not develop much for a few more days. It should be monitored once it gets into the western part of the Caribbean (if it makes it) because it could develop rapidly. The other disturbance to watch is in the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico. It is along a stationary front west of Tampa Bay, Florida. It wil continue to be stationary and whether or not it develops, it will give the Gulf states plenty of rain. But the warm waters below the storm could intensify this system in the matter of a few hours. So it will be continuee to be monitored. Slow development is possible with both systems over the next few days.

Question or comment? Post it here. Thank you! Have a great day guys

Heat Stays

Today, we hit around 91 degrees. Tomorrow should be a tad higher as well as Friday. That will make a heatwave. But it won't stop there, it wil last into this weekend and possibly into early next week. Relief finally comes in the form of a cold front and storms next week.

Humidity Returns

Tomorrow, it will fell a bit more sticky than today. It will continue to do that everyday until this weekend. This weekend should be pretty opressive with highs in the 90's and high humidity/dew points. When a cold front comes through on Saturday, humidity will slowly fall.

Tropics Come Alive

Chantal has now become extra tropical and will continue to weaken as it heads into cooler waters. No need to watch her anymore as she becomes nothing more then a threat to Iceland. There is two other disturbances that need to be monitored for development. One about 300 miles or so east of the Windward Islands. During the past few days this system has gained covection, and lost it. It has repeated this cycle for a few days now. It will continue to head into dry air and it will not develop much for a few more days. It should be monitored once it gets into the western part of the Caribbean (if it makes it) because it could develop rapidly. The other disturbance to watch is in the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico. It is along a stationary front west of Tampa Bay, Florida. It wil continue to be stationary and whether or not it develops, it will give the Gulf states plenty of rain. But the warm waters below the storm could intensify this system in the matter of a few hours. So it will be continuee to be monitored. Slow development is possible with both systems over the next few days.

Question or comment? Post it here. Thank you! Have a great day guys!

As you step outside right now you can feel the humidity in the air. By the afternoon you will feel the heat and humidity combined. Due to heat index values expected to pass the 100 degree level, the following counties are under an Excessive Heat Warning for today until 6PM this evening: NEW CASTLE-MERCER- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA. So for the rest of today you can expect highs in the mid 90's in the entire viewing area, except near the shore where you will remain in the upper 80's. This evening there is a possibility of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms but once the sun goes down they should die quickly. Tomorrow, highs around the area will reach the lower 90's before a cold front makes it's move into the region. Severe weather is now a possibility as parimeters are now very close to strong and severe thunderstorm limits. A few lingering showers could last into very early Thursday morning, but it will clear out and the sunshine should make a come back in the afternoon. Highs Thursday through the weekend should remain in the low to mid 80's. Have a nice day everyone!
-Tyler

Its very hard to tell that anything is coming in the form of rain. As of now temperatures are well into the upper 80's and lower 90's everywhere and a few passing clouds. But if you take a look at the radar in Ohio and western Pennsylvania, yea, the storms are really firing big time. Even in Canada people could expect hail as large as 2 inches in diameter. But as the cold front heads into our area, especially into NJ, it will be dark and we will lose a lot (but not all) of our day time heating and other factors that contribute to the severe thunderstorms. The better chance of severe thunderstorms tonight will be the further west you are. So here is the breakdown:

Eastern PA-- Pop up thunderstorms possible in front of the actual front itself, many of which could possibly be severe as you are under a 15% chance of severe thunderstorms. Then as the cold front itself pushes through, expect thunderstorms. There could be multiple severe cells out there.

Western portion of NJ-- Pop up thunderstorms possible in front of the actual front itself, many of which could possibly be strong to severe as you are under a 5% chance of severe thunderstorms. When the actual front passes through, it could be near mid-night. So the chance of severe storms is not as likely as it is in Eastern Pennsylvania. But in my forecast I will put possible strong storms with the actual front and maybe an isolated severe cell or two.

Rest of NJ--Pop up thunderstorms possible in front of the actual front itself, many of which could possibly be strong to severe as you are under a 5% chance of severe thunderstorms. The cold front will pass your area and it will be after mid-night. I do not expect severe cells at all, but there could possibly be some scattered strong thunderstorms.

After the front clears expect dry and beautiful weather this weekend and up until Wednesday. The humidity and heat might try to make a comeback on Thursday.

Temperatures can be expected in the lower eighties during the beginning of the workweek and maybe into the upper eighties and near 90 degrees by Friday.

Severe Weather --- By this time tomorrow afternoon we will all be watching severe weather roll into the region. I expect severe weather to be a factor especially areas south and east of Philadelphia. Main treat with severe cells will be damaging winds and hail.

Cool Down --- After the storm, expect a cool down into the sixties by Thursday and Friday with a few showers around. By the weekend, it should be dry and temperatures reaching into the mid seventies.

Any Questions or Comments? Leave it here.

Warm Temps--- Tomorrow will be one of the hottest days yet this year with temps ranging from 81 degrees to the north and west to possibly 87 degrees in and around the city if we can get those south west winds kickin'.

Not for Long--- As you know, whatever goes up must come down and you can bet that will be the case. Tuesday will be a very warm day, but as Wednesday rolls in, it will feel cooler but not by much. It will be windy once again but the only difference we will notice is that we could have some pop up thunderstorms in the afternoon. These are not expected to be severe at this point, but tomorrow things could very easily change.

Rain Coming--- Thursday and Friday will be a damp one with off and on rain showers throughout the day. Temps will struggle to reach 70 those days so it will not be pretty. This weekend should clear as the cold front heads out to sea and temperatures warm up into the mid seventies.

ANY QUESTIONS???? LEAVE IT HERE....

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