psu_met's Blog

Didn't think I'd have time for an update today but since RobBen insisted...LOL

Hurricane Dean
As of 2am, 8/19/07: Winds: 145mph G: 180mph
                                       Movement: WNW 17mph
                                       Pressure: 921mb (27.19in.)
                                       Position: 295 ESE of Kingston, Jamaica

Numerous Hurricane/Tropical Storm warnings have been issued.

Dean's current structure is a little in flux. A recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane spotted two eye walls and only measured the top winds at 130mph. The NHC kept Dean at 145mph in case the plane didn't sample the strongest winds and because the pressure keeps dropping. If Dean completes the eye-wall replacement soon and the pressure doesn't rise by then, I think the winds will quickly come back up and Dean could reach CAT 5. A pressure below 920mb is usually the benchmark for a CAT 5 storm.

The computer models are coming into better agreement and confidence in the forecast track is increasing. Dean will pass very near or over Jamaica tomorrow and could be the worst hurricane to affect them since 1832. Right now they are just praying that at the last minute Dean might wobble a bit and just miss hitting the island directly. This is what happened with Ivan in 2004. In about 48hrs. Dean will be making landfall on the Yucatan, probably as a CAT 4/5. It looks like Dean's second landfall will now be south of the border in Mexico. Even the GFDL is now predicting this, as yesterday is showed a landfall in central LA.