psu_met's Blog

Tropical Storm Dean
As of 11pm, 8/15/07: Winds: 70mph G: 85mph
Movement: W 23mph
Pressure: 991 mb (29.25in.)
Position: 625 E of Barbados

Overview: TS Dean is looking healthier by the hour as it continues to move west toward the Lesser Antilles. Wind Shear is down to 10 knots and the only thing stopping Dean from rapidly intensifying is dry air surrounding the storm. Due to the lower wind shear Dean is much more round today and an eye could start to develop soon.
Track Forecast: All of the computer models bring Dean through the Lesser Antilles as the trough moving off US East Coast is weaker than earlier thought. This means that the threat to the Mid-Atlantic and New England is now very small. As Dean enters the Carribbean high pressure will move in behind the trough pushing Dean west, not north. Some computer models bring Dean into Central Mexico, others over Jamaica and into the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on how strong the ridge of high pressure is the east coast of Florida still needs to keep an eye on Dean.
Intensity Forecast: Nothing but dry air stands in the way of a strengthening Dean. By the time he enters the Carribbean, the dry air will be replaced by moist air, further fueling the storm. The NHC has Dean as a hurricane by the time it crosses the Lesser Antilles and a major hurricane in 5 days. The only thing preventing this, would be if Dean is closer to land than presently forecast. The new HWRF model continues to show Dean as a strong CAT 4 over Jamacia.
My Thoughts: Looking at the latest satellite images I think Dean has a chance of becoming a hurricane later tonight and definitely by tomorrow. The Lesser Antilles are just a sitting duck, waiting for Dean. I continue to think the odds are greatest that Dean will enter the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast. There is still plenty of time left to adjust the forecast. (don't you just the love the decisiveness of weather forecasting LOL)

Tropical Storm Erin:
As of 11pm, 8/15/07 Winds: 40mph G: 50mph
Movement: WNW 13mph
Pressure: 1004mb (29.64in.)
Position: 140 SE of Corpus Christi, TX

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Texas cost from San Luis Pass south to Brownsville.
Overview: Tropical Storm Erin formed over the Gulf of Mexico this morning around 11:30am. Wind Shear is only 5-10 knots over Erin, and she is in an ideal condition for rapid development. Luckily, she has only 24 hrs before landfall and will probably due so tomorrow as a 55mph TS. The biggest impact will be 3-5in of rain with isolated amounts up to 8in.

Tropical Storm Flossie: Flossie (50mph) spared the Island of Hawaii as she quickly fell apart overnight. She went from a CAT 2 hurricane to a TS in 6hrs. Radar estimates show only a coupe of inches of rain fell, far less than the 10+ originally expected. The highest wind gust I could find was 48mph along the southern coast. Thankfully for them this turned out to be a near miss.

11pm Update:  Dean:  Hurricane watches has now been posted for the Lesser Antilles.  Dean is very near hurricane strength and it looks like an eye may be beginning to form.  The models are in very good agreement for the next 3 days, moving Dean into the Caribbean.  After day 3, they diverge a little, but generally move Dean into the NW Caribbean btwn Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.  He should continue to steadily strengthen and I think he will cross the Lesser Antilles as a CAT 2.  By day 5 Dean could be a very impressive storm.  An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Dean tomorrow afternoon.
Erin:  She has not strengthened since this afternoon, but may due so slightly by landfall.  Landfall should be near Corpus Christi around 12 noon tomorrow.  The biggest impact will be 3-5in of rain with isolated amounts up to 8in.  Storm Surge of 2-3ft may occur right at the point of landfall. 

Full update tomorrow afternoon.