movealready's Blog

that the U.S economy is dead and it's the Republicans fault. Read on:

The Sky May Be Lower But It Isn't Falling

by BRIAN HAMILTON

January 05, 2009

There is probably something in every generation that makes us think the problems we face are uniquely difficult. 

Much has been written about the economy and, if you accept certain assumptions from what you read, you might think that we are in the midst of a global depression.

 Yet it is important to put the current economy in perspective. We might even try reviewing and analyzing some objective data.

 In the most recently reported quarter, the third quarter of 2008, GDP fell at a rate of 0.5%, which means that the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S. fell by a half of one percentage point from the previous quarter.

 For the first two quarters of last year, GDP grew by 0.9% and 2.8%, indicating that economic growth was relatively flat last year, but that it is not falling off a cliff.

 This isn't the first time GDP has fallen, and it won't be the last. The last decrease in GDP was in the fourth quarter of 2007 and before that was in 2001.  A decrease in GDP after almost six years of increases is not positive, but almost predictable.  

 No economy grows indefinitely and consistently; there are always temporary lapses.

 In fact, if you consider the media coverage of the economy over the past year and the consequent way people have been scared, it's remarkable that anyone is buying anything.

 But we can't just look at GDP, some would say. So let's look at other factors.

 Interest rates remain at historically low levels. This means that if you want to borrow money, you can borrow money inexpensively as a business or as a person.

 Loan volume in the country, according to the FDIC and contrary to what you read about the credit crisis, actually increased last quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Someone is getting loans, and they are not paying excessive interest rates for them.

 How about employment? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment sits at 6.7%. At this time last year, unemployment was 4.7%. The decrease in employment is not favorable, but historically an unemployment rate of 6.7% is not close to devastating. The 50-year historical rate of unemployment is 5.97%.

 Most economists agree that the natural rate of unemployment, which is the lowest rate due to the fact that people change jobs or are between jobs, is around 4%. So, today we sit at 2.7% above that rate. Once again, the very recent trend is not good but it is certainly not horrifying.

 I have noticed many recent media references to the Great Depression (the period between late 1929 and 1938 or so, depending upon the definitions used and personal inclinations). It might be illuminating to note that by 1933, during the height of the Depression, the unemployment rate was 24.9%. During that same period, GDP was falling dramatically, which created a devastating impact on the country.

 Americans have good hearts and empathize with those who are unemployed. Yet it would be easy to go too far in assuming how the working population is currently affected in aggregate. If 6% of the people are unemployed, 94% of the people are working.

 We should always shoot for full employment, but why would we view our efforts as poor when we don't quite make that mark? A good student might try to get straight "A's," but getting an occasional "B" or "C" won't end the world.

 Look at personal income, or that received by individuals from all sources, including employers and the government. It was up last quarter compared with a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Compared with five years ago, personal income has risen by 32.1%. Even considering that inflation was 18.13% over this period, people are generally making more money than they used to.

 This is another one of those statistics that can easily get bent to fit a story. You often hear things like "personal income fell last month by 23%," but writers tend to leave larger and more important statistics out. In this case, would you be more interested in trends over a quarter or a year? Using isolated statistics to fit your view is something that has become accepted.

 Then there's inflation. The inflation rate measures the strength of the dollar you hold today as compared to a year ago. It is currently 3.66%. Over the past 50 years, the inflation rate has averaged about 4.2%. Inflation remains well within control. Yet, would you be surprised to read a story next month citing an X% jump in inflation over the last month? I wouldn't be.

 Skeptics reading this will point to other (and, I believe, far lesser) statistics that validate their gloomy view of the economy and the direction of the country. But if people are employed, are making good wages, can borrow inexpensively, hold a dollar that is worth largely what it was worth a year or five years ago, and live in a country where the value of goods and services is rising, tell me exactly where the crisis is?

 No doubt the economy has slowed, but slowness does not equal death. It's true that the financial markets are a mess (and the depreciation of equities is both scary and bad). But analysts typically go too far in ascribing the fall of the financial markets to the fall of a whole economy.

 The markets are an important component of the economy, but they are not the totality of the economy. No one can say if conditions will worsen in the future. However, we've learned that the American economy has been tremendously resilient over the past 200 years and will probably remain so, as long as the structural philosophies that it has been built upon are left intact.

If you have not been paying attention. Please watch the mortgage rates.....With excellent credit and buy-down of some points, one can get a 4.5 APR refinance.

Enjoy your savings.

This is the best explanation I've heard.  Not sure what it says about me to have to have a Forest Gump explanation to understand this mess.

Mortgage Backed Securities are like boxes of chocolates. Criminals on Wall Street stole a few chocolates from the boxes and replaced them with turds. Their criminal buddies at Standard & Poor rated these boxes AAA Investment Grade chocolates. These boxes were then sold all over the world to investors. Eventually somebody bites into a turd and discovers the crime. Suddenly nobody trusts American chocolates anymore worldwide.

Hank Paulson now wants the American taxpayers to buy up and hold all these boxes of turd-infested chocolates for $700 billion dollars until the market for turds returns to normal. Meanwhile, Hank's buddies, the Wall Street criminals who stole all the good chocolates are not being investigated, arrested, or indicted.

Mama always said: 'Sniff the chocolates first, Forrest'.

Quote of the day from a fund manager:

"This is worse than a divorce... I've lost half of my net worth and I still have my wife.."

The bailout, a different perspective

Back in 1990, the Government seized the Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada for tax evasion and, as required by law, tried to run it. They failed and it closed. Now we are trusting the economy of our country to a pack of nit-wits who couldn't make money running a whorehouse and selling booze?

Keep in mind, this only my opinion...

This woman is a one woman puppy mill, who have completely commercialized giving birth and what it means to be a family. Being one of six, I recognize that there is NO WAY these parents can give the attention to these children that each child needs and deserves. This is a classic situation where the older children are raising the younger children at the expense of their youth. Sure, they'll tell you there tight as kittens in a mitten, but the fact is they have commercialized birth and family, not in the name of God as they say, but in the name of the almighty buck.  I know, if they can afford it, who cares??? I do, these kids are slaves to their parents choices. Who is looking out for them?....Again, this is just my opionion. What say you?

By Alicia Dennis

Originally posted Thursday December 18, 2008 08:10 PM EST

I came across this poll on another site and thought it was interesting  how people vote on how/when to allow government legislation to rule our lives.

Do you think carbon monoxide detectors should be required in all new residential construction, and in homes for sale?

Yes, in new homes only 9%

 Yes, in homes for sale only 1%

 Yes, in both new homes and homes for sale 67%

No, it should be the owner's decision 21%

 I don't know 2%

Thank you for participating in our poll.  

Seems to me, if your not clever enough to make smart personal safety decisions for your family, are you really likely to follow a goverment mandate.  Keep government out of your home!!! No more madates. Only you are responsible for your Family's ultimate safety. BTW, I have two Co2 detectors.....without government mandate.

I hope the Secret Service had the good sense to send that pair of boots thrown at Mr.Bush's head to the forensics lab.............. They could have been laced.

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Josef Stalin said: “Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let our enemies have guns; why should we let them have ideas?” 

America has just voted for the most Liberal Government in our history.

Now, consider the statement above.....No, not the part about guns....the part about ideas.

Where have we gone wrong. Allowing the Liberal agenda take control of our educational system,our childrens minds. History will repeat itself because our children are not educated about their past.

Do you see a problem here.

1)  These folks do not deserve to be offered a better rate than those of us who have worked,struggled and played by the rules to be responsible borrowers. In other words, are responsible borrowers (those not in trouble) going to be offered a 2% refinance option. Fair is fair.

2) what investors are going to invest in mortgages that have a garaunteed ROI (return on investment) of 1-1.5%.........not a good investment.

This plan makes ZERO sense.

Here's my plan.

Let the distressed borrowers lock into a 30 mortgage at 7.5%. Bar them from refinancing for 5 years (penalty for being stupid).  After 5 years they can refinance at will or keep the 7.5 % rate. If the homeowner refinances  after 5 years, the difference between their distresssed mortgage and the new mortgage rate will be calculated and added to the balance of the mortgage. If they keep the 7.5% rate, the difference between the  orginal note and the bailout mortgage will be tacked onto the end of the new mortgage.

This does two things. It keeps private debt private and allieviates the need for Joe tax-payer to bailout the galactically stupid, and it stops the government from penalizing the taxpayer, but best of all it does not reward the irresponsible, but allows them to recover without declaring bankruptcy. What do you think?

Does this scare anybody????

Way to go America....and you know who I'm talking to. You're the person who is so consumed with yourself or you family that you have to be first in line fo a Thanksgiving day sale, the first to stamped through a door to buy your spoiled rotten kid that X-box or PS3. Just to save a few bucks. You're the same person who killed a 35 y/o man with family and friends because of your self serving pig headed belief that your entitled and so are your children. Your the same peson who uses the soft shoulder in traffic jams because you don't care about anything but yourself. You speed in traffic, cut people off. You are disgraceful. You're the person who butts into conversations to interject your question. 

You may not have actually trampled that person, but it's your mindset that paved the way to this mans death.  I'm so small minded, I thought this stuff happened in other countries. What have we become when saving 10% is more important than a mans life. Life truly is cheap. Thank you and good night!

Fact or fodder. Decide for yourself. But be informed.

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