krteacher1's Blog

Good Evening All,

Well, the front came barreling through the Media Delaware County area around 6PM with gusty winds to about 30 mph and much cooler conditions as temps fell a good 5-10 degrees in about 45 minutes.  There were a few sprinkles that moved through but nothing in much in the way of precipitation.  As of now we are sitting at .13 for October here in Media as we have hit a dry spell once again and it looks to continue for the foreseeable future.

Over the next four days or so the trend will be for much cooler conditions with temps around 60 degrees by day and 37-42 by night.  It is not out of the question at all that we see our first frost in parts of the Delaware Valley in the next few days and into next week.

Possible frosty mornings could be Saturday Morning and especially Sunday Morning early.

A bit of a warm up is on tap for Monday through Wednesday before the next cool punch is proceeded by a few light showers middle to latter part of next week. 

As you can see I know the GFS was showing snow a few days ago for October 27th but this simply will not be the case as the end result will probably be just a dry and cooler northwesterly flow with highs in the lower 50's and night time lows in the 30's in the coldest periods.

I think the GFS is over exaggerating the cold and this does appear to be the case for at least the next two weeks looking hindsight at what the GFS was showing in the past two weeks or so.

We say so long and bon voyage to Omar as it did little in the way of damage as it cut through and missed the major islands.  Omar was a very small compact circulation with the highest winds of 125mph extending only 15 miles from the center.  The peak wind gusts on any one island was no more than 70 mph so yea they got lucky down there in the Virgin Islands.  Due to the fast movement of Omar it is likely that any one place in the islands picked up more than 2-4 inches of rain.

Thanks For Reading
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Kevin Reilly
krteacher1

Good Evening all,

Well, the tropics are alive again with yet one more named storm possible. We have seen Marco last week a minute storm hitting the gulf coast of Mexico last week and Nana this week out in the far Eastern Atlantic. Oh what is that southwest of Puerto Rico another depression.... Tropical Depression #15 which will likely become Tropical Storm Omar later tonight or tomorrow. It is possible that Omar could become a category 1 hurricane as it passes by Puerto Rico in route to the Eastern Atlantic. Omar would pose no threat to the United States but does pose a very serious rain threat for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands later tonight through Wednesday Morning. Please see the Caribbean Satellite below towards then end of this blog The GFS: I usually look at this for long range stuff since there is really nothing noteworthy of our weather right now besides the really warm weather from today and the warm weather that will be once again tomorrow. The GFS from October 18th onward till hour 384 shows a very progressive pattern that includes not too much precipitation but does have some close calls for storms especially later in the period. It does show however very chilly air for October standards from time to time especially October 22nd through October 31st! The GFS paints highs near the October 29th time frame in the upper 40's and lower 50's with night time lows easily into the 20's north and west and near 32 in and around the city. The GFS if it is correct looks to give us our first freeze of the season October 27th - October 31st time frame. It is even possible we see some of the first snow flakes of the season well north and west of the city near the Poconos and Great Lakes. This is not a forecast but rather just what the models say beware the GFS is very exaggerative when it comes to October into December patterns. The GFS says wow look at that we have not seen that in a while so it over exaggerates what actually what will happen. No I don't see a snowstorm in the last week of October.

Kevin Reilly
krteacher1

Good Evening All,

Well, congratulations to the Phillies as they have won today 8-5 and have taken a 2-0 lead!!

Seasonal Changes are underway!  This is very apparent as you look at what is going on out in the western states as an early season snow set up is underway which will give plenty of snow to the mountains.  Just checked out Yellowstone and the conditions are as follows:

Light Snow 20 degrees.... They have a winter storm warning for 6-12 inches at lake level, 8-14 inhces in the hills around the lake and then 1-2 feet in the mountain tops.  This is fairly impressive and this situation is about 2-4 weeks earlier than usual. 

Snow will fall in addition through the Rockies and the California Mountains.  There will also be a rather significant Santa Anna Wind developing for Southern California so the fire season will likely erupt this weekend into early next week.

I will not put my winter outlook out until October 31st but it does appear it will be a cold winter Rockies eastward!!!  We will talk snow too a lot more than last year that I guarantee.

GFS What Are You Doing To Me??

If anyone has been keeping tabs on the GFS it brings a boat load of cold air to the Eastern part of the Country especially the Mason Dixon Line, Great Lakes into the Northeast.  The GFS also further out near the 27th of October really pops a storm and the 540 line is around which would be very impressive but for now I think it is all fantasy.  I think the GFS is on to something though for much further down the road in time.

What does it mean?

I think the GFS as usual over plays things especially early in the season and  the further out it gets but one must not ignore its signals as usual.

I think the outcome will be a below normal temperature pattern from October 20th onward into Novemeber with a return to wetter weather pattern.  I guess you cannot rule out some early season snow showers Great Lakes Northern PA northward but I think that is as far it goes and is going out on a limb. 

The end result for the Philadelphia region is probably wet, windy, and much cooler with a few days likely in the upper 40's and lower 50's by day and possibly an early freeze with temps into the upper 20's for some of our northwestern zones.  We shall see just how much the GFS is out in fantasy land or is the GFS picking up on what could be quite a cold spell of weather with snow for someone October 20th to November 1st!!??

Thanks For Reading
Kevin Reilly
Krteacher1

Good Afternoon All,


The Models were way off with the details of our Noreaster system and Kyle.  The overall evolution was not too far off though.  The system down south was definitely tropical when it moved onshore that is my opinion.  

I think the models had a really tough time determining whether that system down south off the Carolina Coast  was tropical or more of a noreaster storm.  I

f the storm is tropical ( and I believe it was) then all the rain and wind would be concentrated around the center and it was. 

The models missed this and said wait the rain and wind will expand from the center and head north.

 This latter did not happen instead the storm went tropical on us and should have been named Tropical Storm Laura as Kyle had already formed in the Atlantic north of Hatti at that time. 

If the storm were a noreaster wind and rain fields would have expanded outward and then moved north and that was not the case.  Quite frankly actually the opposite happened and we were left with little rain and wind on a southeasterly flow of warm moist air off the Atlantic Ocean around the high to the northeast.

Needless to say if it were winter we would have been doubly disappointed:

1: A long fetch off the Atlantic would have surely brought in too much warm air
2: The precipitation forecast in terms of ending amounts in most areas except right along the north central Jersey Shore were off upwards of 3-3.50 inches liquid in most cases.

Thanks For Reading
Feel Free To Drop Me A Line
Kevin Reilly

Kyle I am Trying To Find You?? I do see the Noreaster Though!!
Posted: (September 23, 2008 09:22 pm)   Good Evening All,

I am going to try and keep this brief only becuase I am under the weather and feeling very tired.

Kyle Where Are You!! 

Kyle is having trouble getting started down there in Hatti mainly due to its interaction with land.  What is it with the tropical systems and those islands this year?  The islands act like magnets.  Amazing rainfall down there right now more than 30 inches of rain has fallen in the past three days and we don't even have a named system.

Kyle may eventually develop perhaps to a hurricane but I think it will more likely only get to strong tropical storm strength.  Once again tonight I am trying to find you Kyle but you are not there yet.  Until Kyle develops if it develops and it should the models will do a poor job with it.  I do believe it passes well east of the Jersey shore destined for the east side of Long Island and New England.  The track and intensity are everything.  What may become Kyle will ultimately be steered by another low on the Carolina coast and swing Kyle north  then the high takes over and pushes it rapidly northwards.  All interest from the Delmarva to Maine should remain on alert just in case there is a surprise, but right now I don't see it.

Noreaster:  I SEE YOU NOREASTER!! 

I see you there you are off the Carolia Coast about 175 miles to the east.  Please check out the water vapor below.  This storm will be the main player I think brigning with it gusty winds to the tune of 40 mph wind gusts in the city of Philadelphia and up to 60 mph at the coast.  Flooding rains of up to 3+ inches posible region wide especially Philly burbs southeast.  The winds onshore will cause significant beach erosion and coastal flooding especially at times of high tides.  It is possible that there will be flooding along the Delaware River and Delaware Bay as well at high tides especially.  The noreaster will be the main event for the Delaware Valley as what could be Kyle passes well off the East Coast destined for New England.

Typical winter Noreaster on the way would mean something big if it were winter.

A look at the water vapor map and you see there off the Carolina Coast good phasing going on at this hour and our Coastal Storm is getting going!!  Notice the kink off the South Carolina coast amazing upper level support diving southeast to the surface front right now.

Thanks For Reading and Drop Me a Line
Kevin Reilly
krteacher1

Still Two Systems To Watch One Winter Like The Other Tropical!!
Posted: (September 22, 2008 10:54 pm)   Good Evening,

There is not much change in my thinking from last night.

System One:

Low pressure along a stalled frontal boundary in the Carolina's:

This system will slowly move up the east coast towards the Delaware Valley then move inland south of the area come Thursday night or so.

What to expect from this system:

1- Rain some heavy up to 1 inch possible.  The initial onslaught of rain will make a run to the Delaware Valley then hit a brick wall in the form of a large High Pressure system in New England to its northeast.   There will be a blocking situation going on.  which will make the rainfall forecast tricky at best for most of our area.

2- gusty winds especially at the coast:  Winds up to 30 mph in Philadelphia area due to the  pressure gradient.  Winds up to 45-50 mph at the Beaches due to the pressure gradient as well.

3- Dangerous rip currents, beach erosian, and coastal flooding along the ocean front, bays, and perhaps along the Delaware River especially if the wild card comes into play this weekend see below.

System Two Wildcard Kyle:

At this hour what could and probably will become Kyle is sitting over Hispanola and really not moving.  The system continues to unleash deadly flooding in both Hatti and especially Puerto Rico where some areas have picked up nearly 25 inches of rain in the past 36 hours.

The disturbance will likely become Kyle in the coming 48 hours and may make hurricane status.  With a low running up the coast being blocked inland by a high north Kyle may swing northwest towards the Atlantic Coast somewhere between Virigina Beach and Long Island.  The track and intensity of this storm will determine what happens here. 

There is the potential for a very stormy time from Friday to Saturday night if the scenario plays out and Kyle advances towards the Middle Atlantic Coast.  There are still more questions than answers right now and it will not be ironed out until Kyle does or does not develop.  The players are on the field in highs and lows now how strong they get will determine what is the end result.  It is not time to raise the red flags yet along the Coast but it may turn that way by Wednesday very quickly as whatever storm in Kyle does develops moves very quickly northwards. 

Make no doubt about it one way or another rain, wind, beach erosian, and coastal flooding is on the way sometime Thursday to Saturday evening. 

What could be Kyle right now sits over Hatti as a disturbance at 1004-1006MB that will change once it moves away from Hatti tomorrow.

  Thanks For Reading
Kevin Reilly
krteacher1

When do you think the first flakes of snow will fall this year? 

 

The Early Winter Weather Call but not specific I will not get into specifics until at least Nov. 25th

 

Temps: near normal

Precipitation: below normal

Well,

In talking to David Aldrich Summer Outlooks do not get as much publicity due to lack of any real wild weather such as snowstorms that people do not know how to drive in from time to time.  Well, I am going to give it a go on my first Summer Outlook.  I solely will base this outlook though on what pattern I am seeing now and what I remember from past summers that I have experienced. So here it goes!!??

June 4 days of 90+ degree heat  5 episodes of t storms what are potentially severe

July 7 days of 90+ degree heat 3 episodes of t storms with not only severe weather potential but possibly severe flooding

August 9 days of 90+ degree heat 4 episodes of t storms which would contain severe weather and be severe.... I think we have one tropical system or remnants of which approach the area and eventually affect our area with heavy rain and or wind and waves at the beaches

Sept 3 days of 90+ degree temps.. two more times tropical systems approach the area from the south and or southwest with remnant heavy rain and wind

Well there you have it my Summer Outlook :D

23 days this summer will hit 90+ with T storms from time to time capable of producing severe weather with flooding possible ... three tropical systems or remants of such approach and affect our area in some way.. I must add in here that we will also see a very dry period sometime between Middle May to Middle of July

Kevin
Media

Hi all,

This is Kevin in Media, PA near Philadelphia Pa...

I blog on the fox29.com site up here in PHL. just wanted to all let you know we are expecting snow up here .... it is a blamy 38.4 degrees winds are gusting past 40MPH.. tomorrow's high looks to be about 26 again winds gusting past 40MPH so yea wind chills zero or below.. and to boot how about 2-4 inches of snow..

 

Someone down there in the Kingdom of Mickey please send spring this way... it's cold for March real cold!

 

Kevin Media

Wow, pretty cool site even gives you some of the computer thinking about the February 11th Blizzard 1983

I still think we get one big storm this year like the 1983 Blizzard.. man the storm was very erratic as it moved past say Southern Delaware it acutally made a loop right towards the coast.. here check out and enjoy the read

Kevin ... WE CAN ONLY HOPE WE GET A STORM LIKE THIS!!!!

* February 10-12, 1983

Types of Snowstorms

Snowstorms that affect a major portion of the northeastern coast of the United States can be divided into two types. The first type of snowstorm is called a Type A storm. This kind of storm forms one low pressure center, usually over the Southern part of the United States, near the Gulf of Mexico. This storm then tracks south of the Appalachian Mountains, and proceeds to move up the east coast.

The second type of snowstorm is called a Type B storm. This type of storm forms a primary low pressure center, usually in the Great Plains or Midwest. The storm tracks east or northeast towards the Appalachian Mountains. While this primary low is occluding over the Ohio Valley, a secondary low pressure center forms on the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains, along the coast. This secondary low forms along the warm front of the primary occluded low, and then tracks up the east coast of the United States.

Throughout the twentieth century there have been various storms of both types. An example of a Type A storm, also known as primary development, is the storm that occurred on February 10-12, 1983. This storm developed along the Gulf Coast on February 10, dissipated off of the northeastern coast of Massachusetts on February 12, after dropping a large amount of snow along the east coast, from Virginia to Massachusetts. Anywhere from 13.5" to 22.8" of snow fell in the major metropolitan areas of Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston, but the most accumulation occurred in northern Virginia, Maryland, and northeastern West Virgina. To see the track that this storm took check out this web site CHECK IT OUT VERY ERRATIC http://vortex.weather.brockport.edu/~jmalieka/dblahyj/p
rimarydevelopmentfebruary1983animation.html

Analysis of Northeast Coast Snowstorms

Type A : Primary Development - February 10-12, 1983

The conditions described here are typical for all Type A storms. A surface low forms over the Gulf of Mexico, or near the Gulf coast. The low tracks south of the Appalachian Mountains, and then northward up the east coast of the United States. When this is occurring, if there is a high pressure over northeastern Canada, the clockwise circulation around that high would bring cold air from Canada towards the east coast. As the low pressure center moves up the east coast, the counterclockwise circulation around the low brings with it warm, moist air from the south. As the cold air from Canada, supplied by the high pressure center, meets the warm, moist air from the south, supplied by the low pressure center, a coastal front forms. This front forms an enhanced region of precipitation. The heaviest precipitation falls to the north and west of the center of the low. Since the low travels northward up the east coast, the presence of below freezing air causes precipitation to fall in the form of snow. Hence, the major metropolitan areas of the northeast coast receive a lot of snow.

Upper Air Dynamics

Surface features mentioned above for both types of storms are often assisted by upper level features. A jet streak, which is a region of maximum wind speeds, is situated over the surface low pressure center, helping to increase upward motion, which is needed to form precipitation. There is also another jet streak to the north and east of the previously mentioned jet streak. The two jet streaks actually work together to enhance upward vertical motion even more, therefore, causing more precipitation.

There is also a conceptual model called the conveyor belt that is used to help explain the airflow that is associated with a northeast coast snowstorm. There are three different conveyor belts: the warm conveyor belt, the cold conveyor belt, and the dry airstream (dry conveyor belt). The warm conveyor belt brings warm, moist air northward towards the low, and is what typically forms the "tail" of the comma that is characteristic of a cyclone, and seen on satellite imagery. The cold conveyor belt originates north of the low, within the high pressure system. It brings cold air southward toward the northern portion of the low, and forms the "comma head" that is typical of a cyclone. It is often under the head of the comma cloud that the heaviest precipitation falls. The dry airstream contains dry air that originates west of the low pressure center, and transports that air towards the surface low. It is the dry airstream that helps form the distinctness of the comma cloud shape. It is also at the junction of the dry airstream from the west, and the warm and cold conveyor belts from the south, and north respectively, that one will find the surface low.

Both surface and upper level features are illustrated in the schematic diagram shown below.

Hi all,


Look Beyond the Models:

Well, I have been watching, reading, and listening to Rob over the past 6 years when it comes to forecasting. Rob often comments that sometimes you have to look beyond the models.

Well, I am going to attempt to do that now: I have looked at the water vapor so that I can see even the smallest of little eddies in the over all patter when it comes to the Northern and Southern Branches of the jet stream. I don't know if the models are picking it up but something has caught my eye out near New Mexico an upper level low a weak one but it's there. My theory is that this low comes out in the next week to three weeks and spawns low pressure development over the Gulf Coast States. What happens next?

The high pressure ridge which dominated our November and December with warmth is still down there sitting off the coast of Florida case in point still near 80 across much of the pennisula by day and in the 60's by night... yes for Florida standards it's warm. Even Florida does cool down with day time highs in the low 60's and nights in the low to mid 40's usually during this time of the year but it is still well above average down there in the temperture department.

I believe this eddie (upper low) over New Mexico eventually ejects out and forms a storm in the Gulf,,, This storm in response to the upper ridge along the southeast coast begins to move Northward up along the East Coast as the rige pushes up against it forcing it up the coast.... Then our negative NAO gets involved causing the storm to slow down and bomb off the Carolina Coast. The rest is history as the storm rides north northeast from here and PHL receives on average 15-20 inches of snow on average acroos the region less at the shore becuase of the ocean influence.. Also due to the Temp gradient I will throw in some Thunder snow (convective developement) I believe this to be our fate sometime between now and Feb 12th... The above is what I think may happen not a forecast... I am truly thinking beyond the models and what's out there currently in the pattern (that is the players on the field)

Wild Card:

Of course in all of this above mentioned snow the "Wild Card" is the upper low over New Mexico and it's eventual movement east.... just a theory not a forecast

1982-83:

I was 9 years old this year... I do remember it was a warm winter relatively... what I will not forget is the huge storm we got on Feb. 11th that year 22.5 inches at the airport...thunder lighting, drifting snow... you name it... but remakeably much warmer as the storm departed... this I believe is our fate when the -NAO moves back towards neutural or positive.. just a hunch... lots of cold air around out in front of this storm though.. which bodes well.. yes we are being missed to the south and east with storms now... but it's just a matter of time until the ridge on the southeast coast begins to flex it's muscels again and sends a monster snowstorm up the East Coast... Time will tell..

Hey Rob or anyone that knows what were or was the weather like leading up to the huge storm in 1982-83....??? was the winter at like this one I think it was but again I was only 9 years old here living in Norhteast Phila at Tabor and Adams not far from Sears and Roebuck on Roosevelt and Whitaker if you remember that big buiding huge

Kevin from Media