ALL MY NEW BLOG POSTING's will be POSTED ON THE NEW SITE ONLY EFFECTIVE IMMEDAITELY.

If you are changing your blog name, please let me know for the next two weeks at the end of the comment who you were before on this site.

My new blog name is Doug Melegari.

Thank you.

See you on the blog.

This was a true winter storm. It is about over for the region. The storm system was one of low confidence from the start as computer models shifted from an inland storm loaded with rain to an ocean storm with only a touch of snow in our region. But in the end, we dealt with a line of low presure, trough, an upper level low, and a secondary low with a coastal storm offshore.

This energy was able to produce some banding. I give props to David Aldrich, Joe Bastardi, and Rob Guarino who picked up on this well. While this was showing up on the NAM for more than 24 hours, it did not show up on future doppler radar and the GFS until yesterday evening.

We dealt with some banding throughout yesterday. The first banding occured in Ocean, Burlington, and Monmouth counties. However, this occured during the day so the areas that got the banding last night when it was colder (Philadelphia, Camden, Gloucester, Delaware counties to the shore) were able to pick up decent snowfall quicker and thus there totals are just as high if not higher than the areas that saw banding earlier in the day.

We actually still have a band of snow this morning in extreme Southern New Jersey and Northern Delaware. These areas will pick up a coating to 2 inches of snow through the morning.

The other problem this morning is shallow freezing fog in parts of the region reducing visibility.

There are numerous school closings and delayed openings in our region this morning due to the bad road conditions with temperatures in the twenties and locally heavy snowfall.

Philadelphia International Airport picked up the most snowfall of the season for a single event so far, eight inches of snow. This was also the most snow in several years to occur at the airport. The snow drought has officially ended in Philadelphia and across many portions of the viewing areas.

My totals as of Monday Morning were good for New Jersey, but not high enough for Pennsylvania counties.

So how did you do bloggers? Did you get heavy snow or did you get ripped off?

Doug

The rate tonight is going, we are going to end up with seven or eight inches of snow in some places. The heavy snow was over parts of the region today, but now it is still over parts of the region and the temperature is much lower now and there is no sunshine. Thus, some areas that did not have much snow on the ground after the evening commute could have more snow on the ground than those who had more snow than them on the ground before the evening commute.

I am watching this feature by Harrisburg. I have had my eyes on it since this afternoon. This piece of energy has been interacting with the coastal energy and upper level low energy this evening and has developed some intense snow bands and snow showers in Central Pennsylvania. These will move across our Central Pennsylvania and Western Portion of Eastern Pennsylvania and then potentially into Delaware. While this band is expanding, it is barely moving.

Then we have the spinning moisture which just does not want to disolve because of the energy out to the west feeding it. Philadelphia into Southern New Jersey (north of the Delaware Bay) is getting some moderate to heavy snow.

Any snow falling at this point is sticking. Therefore, some areas may get an additional 1 to 4 inches, depending on where these bands set up.

Snowfall totals in our region will range from a coating to eight inches by the time this snowfall event is done.

Doug

Region wide, there has been a coating to 5 inches of snow. The highest totals are currently in Burlington, Bucks, Berks, Chester, Ocean, and Monmouth Counties. I would say the counties hit hardest with a widespread heavy snow have been Chester, Burlington, and Monmouth Counties.

The higher snowfall amounts in these counties have all depended on whether banding setup or not and the actual surface temperature.

Roads in every county where it is still snowing are becoming snow covered or slushy at this point since temperatures are dropping well below freezing now and we have lost the sun.

There are bands of moderate to heavy snow north of the Delaware Bay and New Castle county. It will take until at least Midnight to clear all this snow out of the region. Snow has ended for the most part in Central and Southern Delaware, extreme Southern New Jersey, and Lancaster County.

Some areas may pick up an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow, with some areas receiving higher amounts.

This is a changing situation. Obviously if it is late tonight and we still have a band of snow, it still could put down more accumulating snowfall.

Doug

The winter weather advisory is continuing for most of the region until at least Midnight.

The snowfall totals have not been updates in quite awhile. There have been these bands of locally heavy snowfall, as predicted, throughout the day.

It would appear as though the snow is starting to lighten up as a trough of low pressure has now moved into the area and the low pressure area moves to the north and east.

But some energy from out to our west still lingers and this concerns me a great deal. The future radar and the computer models show this band of snow extending from the Lehigh Valley down into Atlantic City will into the evening hours.

We will see what happens. But expect region wide, an additional coating to 2 inches of snow. Where any of these bands setup, we could be talking about additional locally hefty accumulation. There is a convective element to this, so it is not set in stone. Think of it as a lake effect snow band or a thunderstorm.

Doug

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, Philadelphia, Northampton, Lehigh, Middlesex, Mercer, Hunterdon, Burlington, Ocean, Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May, Camden, Salem, Gloucester, New Castle, Kent, Sussex, and Monmouth Counties.

The future doppler radar that I use (very similar to FOX Futurecast and Futuretracker 6) last night handled the snow situation better than the future radar update this morning.

The snowfall amounts will defintely be the greatest in our Eastern New Jersey Counties. The anafront snow this morning has now combined with the secondary low pressure snow to really fill in the radar, even back to the west.

Lancaster, Western Chester, Berks Counties:

Coating to 2 inches. The higher amounts occured mainly last night.

Kent and Sussex Counties:

Coating to 3 inches of snow.

Eastern Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, Philadelphia, Mercer, Somerset, New Castle, Gloucester, Salem,  Northampton, Lehigh, Carbon, and Monroe Counties:

2 to 4 inches of snow for a storm total. Locally higher amounts along the Delaware and in the Poconos quite possible. This includes last night.

Atlantic, Burlington, Ocean, Monmouth, Middlesex Counties:

3 to 6 inches of snow. Locally higher amounts possible.

Updates to come!

Doug

So how much snow did you get so far ?  Here's your chance to tell us. 

Not sure if you're going to clean off the driveway ?  Temperatures will soar to spring-like values this weekend, melting all of it away.

Thank you for your input.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, Philadelphia, Northampton, Lehigh, Middlesex, Mercer, Hunterdon, Burlington, Ocean, Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May, Camden, Salem, Gloucester, New Castle, Kent, Sussex, and Monmouth Counties.

I have observed myself a very heavy snow band that has setup across Eastern New Jersey. This may shift eastward overtime, but the radar could very well keep filling in keeping the snow over New Jersey until this afternoon when the heavier snow is currently expected.

Travel has already become quite slippery and hazardous in Eastern New Jersey. Once the heavier snow begins the rest of this afternoon, expect widespread hazards on the roads.

I expect intense banding to occur today in some areas. In fact, the NAM picked up on this last night. This is where these amounts that I expect below could be locally higher by as much as three or four inches in some spots. There will be a 15:1 snow ratio today and as temperatures drop, the ground will be able to accumulate the snow quicker.

Lancaster, Berks, Carbon, and Monroe Counties:

A coating to three inches of total snow accumulation. Most of this already fallen.

Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Lehigh, Northampton:

1 to 3 inches of snow with some locations getting locally higher snow amounts.

Philadelphia, Delaware, New Castle, Mercer, Northwestern Burlington, Hunterdon, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Kent, and Sussex Counties:

2 to 4 inches of snow with some locations getting locally higher snow amounts.

Central and Southeastern Burlington, Ocean, Monmouth, Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland:

2 to 6 inches of snow with some locations getting locally higher amounts. The immediate coastline could see less with the impact of the ocean.

Please stay tuned for updates...

Doug

We’re certainly NOT going to live Groundhog Day over again….

Big changes from yesterday’s 54-degree high and all that sunshine.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for just about our entire viewing area, in effect until midnight.  

It looks as if the brunt of this storm will move offshore, but we’ll get some of it, and even though the intensity could lessen, we’re still seeing accumulating snow.   And as you’ve heard,  there’s another storm coming out of the northwest.  That will factor into the forecast, too.

Rain began last night.   Colder air is starting to filter in from the northwest, and we’re going to see that light precipitation change over to snow.

The snowfall really gets cranked up after noon, and could make for a messy evening rush hour.    Roads that are untreated could be snow-covered by later in the day.

We’re still seeing anywhere from 2 – 4” of snow for most of the area.

Some places in New Jersey, since it’s a coastal storm, will see a bit more, but right along the shore, the ocean influence means more rain mixed in and lower accumulation amounts.

More updates on the Comments section below as we get them.

Also, make sure to note that we’re changing where we put our blogs.  Details are under another heading on the main blog page.

Sue Serio  - 2/3/09

“Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men’s blood…Make big plans, aim high in hope and work.

-Daniel H. Burnham

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Delaware, Philadelphia, Northampton, Lehigh, Middlesex, Mercer, Hunterdon, Burlington, Ocean, Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May, Camden, Salem, Gloucester, New Castle, Kent, Sussex, and Monmouth Counties.

There will be periods of light snow this morning. This will cause just enough of a coating on the roads to create slippery conditions this morning.

After noon, travel will become hazardous. The evening commute will be dangerous to some degree with the chance of snow covered roadways and heavy snow. There may be enough wind to blow and drift the snow and to cause whiteout conditions locally.

I expect intense banding to occur today in some areas. In fact, the NAM picked up on this last night. This is where these amounts that I expect below could be locally higher by as much as three or four inches in some spots. There will be a 15:1 snow ratio today and as temperatures drop, the ground will be able to accumulate the snow quicker.

Lancaster, Berks, Carbon, and Monroe Counties:

A coating to three inches of total snow accumulation. Most of this already fallen.

Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Lehigh, Northampton:

1 to 3 inches of snow with some locations getting locally higher snow amounts.

Philadelphia, Delaware, New Castle, Mercer, Northwestern Burlington, Hunterdon, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Kent, and Sussex Counties:

2 to 4 inches of snow with some locations getting locally higher snow amounts.

Central and Southeastern Burlington, Ocean, Monmouth, Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland:

2 to 6 inches of snow with some locations getting locally higher amounts. The immediate coastline could see less with the impact of the ocean.

Please stay tuned for updates...

Doug

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for the following area: Atlantic, Cape May, Ocean, Burlington, Delaware, Philadelphia, Gloucester, Camden, New Castle,  Salem, Cumberland, and Kent Counties.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for Berks, Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton, Monroe, Chester, Bucks, Mongtomery, Mercer, Somerset, Middlesex, and Hunterdon Counties.

It is important to note that the snow warning criteria is 4 inches for Philadelphia and points south and east and 6 inches north and west of the city.

A cold front has been very slow to pass through the region. This is significant. This means that the coastal low pressure area will not be as far offshore as previous projected by computer models and as previously forecast. Therfore, confidence is increasing in a moderate severity snow event. However, there appears to still be no signs of a significant snowstorm of 1 feet to 2 feet of snow as some predicted. I hear the anger has been so bad on one site, the site had to shut down temporarily.

This has been a very tough storm to forecast. To recap this potential snow event. Late last week the computer models indicated significant snow in the Western Pennsylvania area with significant ice in Central Pennsylvania and significant rain in our region. Over the weekend, models shifted the storm well out to sea with light to moderate snow potential in our area. On Sunday Morning, models displayed a significant snowstorm in our region with blizzard conditions. Last night, it appeared no part of our region would see more than a coating to an inch on the computer models. Today, the models have shifted back to a moderate snow event. Based on the placement of the cold front and the movement, it appears it will end up being a moderate snow event.

For two consecutive days the temperatures have been in the 50s. Since this will end up being one of the coldest January months on record and we have just been temporarily defrosted for bitter cold, the ground temperature is only a few degrees above freezing and is actually still supporting ice on paved surfaces where there is shade. So as temperatures fall tonight, the ground temperature will begin to drop back towards the freezing mark and below freezing throughout the day on Tuesday. The sun being at a higher angle may at first stop the snow from accumulating, but the snow intensity will be good enough to make it accumulate, especially on grassy surfaces. Sun has not been a significant factor until typically March.

There may not be much in the way of snow on the ground for the morning commute. The actual moisture with the cold front is still centered back to our west. As this approaches this evening, this will mark the true drop in temperature. Rain will quickly mix with sleet and wet snow, if not already wet snow. Flurries and periods of light to moderate snow will occur during the morning commute.

The greater concern lies for the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. The low pressure area will be throwing back snow into our area, with the most impact from the coastal low pressure area in our eastern counties. A line of low pressure will approach from the west and potentially interact with the coastal low, filling in snow back to our west.

Here is my latest call on snow totals...

Note that the ranges you see are what I have confidence in as to being widespread snow amounts. There could be some locally higher amounts where banding occurs and this will be tough to forecast.

Lancaster:

Coating to 2 inches of snow.

Carbon, Monroe, Lehigh, Northampton, Chester, Western Bucks, Western Montgomery:

1 to 3 inches of snow. Some locally higher amounts of 4 or more inches are possible in the Poconos.

Eastern Bucks, Mercer, Hunterdon, Eastern Montgomery, Philadelphia, New Castle, Delaware:  

2 to 4 inches of snow. Some locally higher amounts are possible where any enhanced banding occurs.

Camden, Salem, Northwestern Burlington, Gloucester, Mercer, Somerset, Sussex:

2 to 5 inches of snow. Some locally higher amounts are possible where any enhanced banding occurs.

Central and Southeastern Burlington, Monmouth, Cumberland, Ocean, Cape May, Atlantic, Middlesex, Kent:

3 to 6 inches of snow. Some locally higher amounts are possible where any enhanced banding occurs.

This is a very changable situation and thus keep it tuned.

Doug

Here we go again.  Our southern storm looks impressive on radar.  This storm will NOT be a direct hit for Philadelphia.  But the good news for snow lovers is that it does not have to be.  What is playing into the equation, as described in detail on this blog two days ago, is the Great Lakes trough or low pressure that has to swing down.  This disturbance is working in tandem with the upper-level low.  Therefore, we will see snow accumulation.  I emphasized that last night at 10 PM, despite my on-air and online critics.

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has even posted Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches.

2 to 4 inches of snow, I still think, will be possible area wide on Tuesday with the heaviest of snow coming Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Some additional flurries and perhaps a leftover snow shower will be possible on Wednesday, but no big deal.  The main event is obviously on Tuesday.  

Keep it right here and in the comment section for more updates.

Remember this may start as a light mix of rain or sleet before quickly changing to all snow in the overnight.

Start time has been delayed.  Looks like a 10 PM to Midnight start time for Philly and I-95 corridor.

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Sunshine will give way to increasing cloudiness as a cold front approaches the region this evening.

Rain will develop this evening and tonight. The colder air will be quick to come in as the cold front pushes through and thus the rain will change to a mixture of wet snow, sleet, and rain to eventually all rain.

An area of low pressure is already forming in the Gulf Coast States along the frontal boundary and will move up along the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region. By Tuesday Morning, the low pressure area will be up to our angle, but the front will be offshore by that time and that means the low pressure area will be at least 100 miles offshore. I still expect some snow, especially along the coast.

The latest NGM, 6z GFS, and the 6z NAM both support a period of moderate snow if you live in Eastern New Jersey and Delaware with light to moderate snow in the city. Elsewhere, snow showers and snow flurries.

What I am carefully watching is this line of low pressure coming in from the Great Lakes. This could interact with the low off the coast and cause snow to fill in on the radar in our western areas that would otherwise not really be impacted too hard from the coastal low pressure area.

The other uncertainty is the ground temperature. The ground has been so cold over the last few it has supported snow accumulation staying around for some when temperatures rised into the 50s yesterday. WIth another day well above freezing, I think the ground temperature will rise a few more degrees. There was some melting yesterday that occured, so the ground did arrive above freezing at some point yesterday. I feel that temperatures will have to drop to at least 30 before the snow will stick on the ground. Of more concern is the fact that the ground may be covered in liquid from rain. It will take air temperatures of 28 and below to get the water on the ground to freeze up because usually that is the air temperature that gets the warmer surfaces to freeze up after a few warmer days.

Based on the latest thinking I have adjusted snowfall totals some. Last night the model runs did not have even light to moderate snow over the region. These numbers are subject to change so come back tonight for more information. In fact, the 18z GFS last night showed nothing more than snow flurries and snow showers.

Based on the latest computer model guidance here is what I see...This is what I believe will be the outcome.

The point I was trying to convey to David Aldrich last night is that I do not think that every county and every town will see snow amounts in excess of two inches. There will be places not so lucky and that will get numbers between 1 and 1.9 inches.

One thing is for sure...regardless of the outcome...those that were playing blizzard hype and volcano/model hype are not the best sources.

I think it will be quite windy on Tuesday. I am forecasting 20 to 30 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 50 mph. This will certainly cause blowing and drifting snow if these accumulations are realized.

Lancaster, Chester, Berks, Carbon, and Monroe Counties:

A coating to an inch of snow from the cold front and coastal low. The line of low pressure could deliver another coating to an inch of snow. Snow showers may be ongoing in the Poconos during this period due to local effects and thus two inches may occur with the line of low pressure.

Northampton, Lehigh, Western Bucks, Western Montgomery Counties:

A coating to an inch of snow from the cold front and coastal low. The line of low pressure could deliver another coating to an inch of snow.

Eastern Bucks, Eastern Montgomery, Delaware, Glouscester, Salem. Camden,  New Castle, Kent, Sussex, and Philadelphia Counties:

1 to 4 inches of snow from the cold front, coastal low interaction, and the line of low pressure. The higher numbers will mainly be in Camden, Kent, and Salem Counties.

Burlington, Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, Cape May, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Somerset:

2 to 6 inches of snow accumulation possible from the cold front, coastal low interaction, and the line of low pressure.

Doug

After that, with colder air moving in, we see a switch to accumulating snow by Tuesday morning.  Several inches…maybe as much as 2 – 4”, could be on the ground by lunchtime.    This could cause some school closings and / or delays tomorrow.    Check  for the complete list on Good Day Philadelphia, and here on myfoxphilly.com.   As soon as we get the information, we get it to you.

Yesterday’s high, by the way, was a springlike 53-degrees.  If it were going to stay that warm, we’d only be talking about rain with this storm.  But its track will allow that colder air to move in, and that’s why we’re talking about several inches of snow accumulation tomorrow.

Then, on Wednesday, it’s another storm.  This one is a clipper system, moving out of the northwest, and it’s going to add an additional dusting to an inch of snow to what’s already on the ground.

Speaking of “ground,’  this is party day in Punxsutawney, PA,  out in the western part of the state.   Even though I spent two memorable Groundhog Days at Gobbler’s Knob, I have to look up the folklore every year:    Here’s the deal:

If the groundhog sees his shadow:   six more weeks of winter. 

No shadow means an early spring.

MY FAVORITE QUOTE FROM THE MOVIE:  “GROUNDHOG DAY:”

“What if there is no tomorrow?  There wasn’t one today.”  -Phil Connors

 And here's the famous DJ exchange that Phil hears over and over again when his alarm clock goes off each day....that's the same day:

First D.J.: Okay, campers, rise and shine, and don't forget your booties 'cause it's cooooold out there today.
Second D.J.: It's coooold out there every day. What is this, Miami Beach?
First D.J.: Not hardly. And you know, you can expect hazardous travel later today with that, you know, that, uh, that blizzard thing.
Second D.J.: [mockingly] That blizzard - thing. That blizzard - thing. Oh, well, here's the report! The National Weather Service is calling for a "big blizzard thing!"
First D.J.: Yessss, they are. But you know, there's another reason why today is especially exciting.
Second D.J.: Especially cold!
First D.J.: Especially cold, okay, but the big question on everybody's lips...
Second D.J.: - On their chapped lips...
First D.J.: - On their chapped lips, right: Do ya think Phil is gonna come out and see his shadow?
Second D.J.: Punxsutawney Phil!
First D.J.: Thats right, woodchuck-chuckers - it's
[in unison]
First D.J.: GROUNDHOG DAY!
Second D.J.: GROUNDHOG DAY!

If you have to repeat today, I hope it's a good one for you.

Sue Serio

2/2/09

 So far, no watches or warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service.

Here we go again.  With our southern storm now taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico, it does appear that the storm will NOT be a direct hit per se for Philadelphia.  Could it change ?  Of course, it could.  But right now, it does not appear likely.  What does play into the equation, as described in detail on this blog yesterday, is the Great Lakes trough or low pressure that has to swing down on Wednesday.  Right now, these two features (the southern storm and the Great Lakes low and trough) do not appear to "phase" or come together.  In other words, the secondary low is coming late to the party.

We will still get snow, however.  Let me emphasize that again.  Snow is coming to Philadelphia this week.  But the crazy high amounts that have been illustrated on the GFS and NAM models, for example, are not realistic, in my opinion.

2 to 4 inches of snow, I think, will be possible area wide on Tuesday with some additional accumulation possible on Wednesday with snow showers.   Keep it right here and in the comment section for more updates.

Start time for this event appears to arrive in Philly and the I-95 corridor between 4 PM and 7 PM Monday evening.  A light mix of rain or sleet will quickly change to snow by later Monday night.

Tonight:  27 to 32 degrees from suburb to city.

Mostly clear, fog developing by morning.

Winds:  SW to VRB 3 - 8 mph.

Monday:  41 to 45 degrees from suburb to city. 

Early fog, increasing clouds, late mix to snow.

Winds: VRB / NNW 5 - 15 mph.

TUESDAY:  Snow, 2 to 4 inches area wide.  Windy.

Check back for more updates as the storm track may change and significantly reduce or increase the totals.

High near 35 degrees.

WEDNESDAY:  Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy, windy.

High near 29 degrees.

In case you are wondering, no winter storm watches will be posted this afternoon and this evening.

Temperatures have efficiently warmed as a southwest flow has moved into our region. This southwest flow will be with us until a cold front moves offshore on Monday Evening.

I expect overnight low temperatures to remain at or above freezing for most areas, except in the far northern areas or in the Pine Barrens where things will radiate quite well early this evening, before increasing cloudiness settles in for early on Monday Morning.

For Monday Morning, clouds and sunshine can be expected. By the afternoon hours, the clouds will lower and thicken out ahead of a cold front. This may very well be another day of high temperatures exceeding 40 degrees, especially with a strong southwest wind flow ahead of this front. I do think some morning sun will occur and help to rais temperatures to 50 or higher in a few places. Even without the sun, I do not think the clouds will hold too much of a grip on temperatures. Winds could turn quite blustery on Monday with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

For Monday Afternoon and Evening, showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will occur with the frontal passage. Some may label this as rain, but generally expect up to .25" of total rainfall from the frontal passage.

Behind the cold front lies the potential trouble. As the cold front moves offshore, an area of low pressure will form along the cold front and become a powerful coastal storm or ocean storm. Computer models are still having trouble handling the system.

The 6z NAM had 10 to 16 inches of snow for much of the region. The 6z GFS had 11 to 24 inches of snow. The 12z NAM had 4 to 9 inches of snow. The 12z GFS had a coating to 2 inches of snow. The model runs from yesterday had basically a coating to three inches of snowfall, with a far eastern track.

Last Sunday Morning, before the middle of the week storm, computer models also spit out 1' to 2' of snow. They were quick to change at the 12z run last Sunday Evening to light to moderate snowfall, with ice going over to rain. The correct solution was a mix of snow, sleet, ice, and rain with snowfall generally 1 to 4 inches.

I took a look at the NGM model which only goes out to 48 hours and updates twice a day. The 12z run had significant snowfall for our region. Although the model run does not provide projections for more than 48 hours, based on what the track was with the storm and the QPF output already at hour 48, I would believe 12 to 24 inches would be the eventual outcome on this model run for total snowfall.

Now let us examine the overall seasonal pattern. It is not supportive of significant snowfall or a "Blizzard". It is a weak to moderate La Nina winter. I already believe it has become a moderate phase, but the actual phase will not be set in stone until late February.

All season long the pattern has favored inland storm tracks, which bring plenty of rain and wind. The other storm track that has been favored has been a track that takes the storm far to the east and out to sea with some minor snowfall in our region, unless there is a boundary to interact with which causes locally enhanced snowfall. The only other way we have gotten snowfall this winter is when a boundary swings through and interacts with a flow off the Great Lakes.

With this upcoming event, accumulation will not occur suddenly. It will take time for the temperatures to drop, at least three hours. The ground will be warm with two days of well above freezing temperatures. The ground will also have puddles of water from rainfall. Finally, while there could be some high rations of snow, it will be a wet snow which will be easier to melt. The biggest player here is the potential impact the sun and sun angle will have with the snow that falls after Sunrise on Tuesday with temperatures not too far below the freezing mark. I estimate the sun will have little impact if temperatures 27 and below.

As someone told me a few years ago "I would rather forecast with caution and have a good outcome, rather than be the first and perhaps eat crow."  This especially holds true for this Winter season.

The latest 18z GFS and the latest 18z NAM have little or no snow accumulation in our region. Therefore, I have confidence now that this is what will happen and it goes along with the pattern we have seen all season long.

Based on the above, here is the percentages as I see it:

1. The Storm goes out to sea with just some flurries and snow showers here. 60%.

2. The Storm tracks just enough west for light to moderate snowfall. 30%.

3. The Storm tracks closer to the coast and delivers a significant snowfall. 10%.

So, I think the Northeastern and Eastern Counties will see the most snowfall regardless of the track. If the track does come closer to the coast, it would dump heavier snows inland and bring the sleet to the immediate coastline.

Based on the latest computer model guidance here is what I see...This is what I believe will be the outcome.

Lancaster, Chester, Berks, Carbon, and Monroe Counties:

Flurries or snow showers, localized accumulations.

Northampton, Lehigh, Western Bucks, Western Montgomery Counties:

Snow showers, a coating or less.

Eastern Bucks, Eastern Montgomery, Delaware, Glouscester, Salem. Camden,  New Castle, Kent, Sussex, and Philadelphia Counties:

Coating to an inch or two of of snow accumulation possible.

Burlington, Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, Cape May, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Somerset:

1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation possible.

Doug