Vince_Condella's Blog

I heard a great add on the radio today.  I think it was for a window company or a furnace company or somebody that has something to do with selling winter weather-related products.  "The experts are calling for another harsh winter", the add begins.  "Be ready for the worst that nature has to offer by buying...."  etc., etc.

So I got to thinking about the so-called experts and their winter forecasts.  Who could that be?  Hmmmmm.  A-hah!  Then it hit me.  It's got to be the Old Farmer's Alamanac, or perhaps just The Farmers' Alamanac.  There are two you say?  Oh yes, and each one claims to be pretty good at predicting the weather.

First there is the Farmers' Almanac, now in its 191st consecutive year in print.  It began in Maine in 1818 and claims to have a weather forecast accuracy of 80% to 85%.  Hey, that's pretty good.  I'd better buy one of those.  They are predicting a split winter this year: cold east of the Mississippi and warm west of the Mississippi.  For those who live near the Mississippi - I guess that would be us - the weather will be variable, with many changes along the way during winter.  Hey, that's a bold forecast, eh?

Then there is the Old Farmer's Almanac, the oldest continuously published periodical in North America.  It began in New Hampshire in 1792, founded by Robert B. Thomas.  In the 216 years since they began producing forecasts, they are accurate 80% of the time.  Yep, that's what they say.  And how do they achieve these fantastic numbers?  They use local folklore and a super-secret scientific formula.

Folks, let's be real honest about this.  The almanacs are fun books with lots of really cool information in them.  They make great bathroom reading.  Leave a copy in the john for those times when you will be in there for a few minutes, and the almanacs become wonderful short-term reading.

But if you are going to base your planning on their long-range forecasts, well.....good luck with all of that.  As you know, the truth is that there are no secret scientific formulas.  And folklore is simply that:  folklore.  It is all about the marketing and, of course, tradition.  In the early days when these two publications began, weather forecasting was all about folklore and some "secret" formula passed down from previous generations.  With today's worldwide weather data and computer models, that marketing ploy just doesn't fly.  But the almanacs are still popular, especially for their gardening tips and astronomical information.

Want to make your own almanac just like the big boys?  Take a blank calendar for a future month.  For each day on the calendar, write down a weather word, e.g. rainy, windy, sunny, cloudy, etc.  Remember, one word for each day.  When that month arrives, note how well you do with your advanced forecasting.  You might be surprised.  No doubt you will hit a few of the forecast days with 100% accuracy.

There.  Now I've told you the super-secret scientific formula.