RobBensalemSnow's Blog

First off I want to state I am a proud American citizen happy I live in the best country on our planet.

However over the past 15-20 years there has been an alarming trend which in my opinion threatens the fabric of our society and our American Spirit. No, it is not terrorism or Global Warming, it is POLITICAL HATE.

This country is now reduced to:

Red State vs. Blue State
Bill O’Reilly vs. Keith Olberman
Conservative vs. Liberal
Republican vs. Democrat

The political hate spewed in either direction is sad and embarrassing. This country has thrived on differing views and contrary opinions debated in a friendly, intelligent manner. That is what has made us what we are, from the Lincoln/Douglass debates to the Nixon/Kennedy debates.

Now we are reduced to the name calling of Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter on the right and Bill Maher and Al Franken on the left.

Two words GROW UP and stop demolishing the American Spirit!!!!

In a time of war and terrorism we all need to come together and not roll on with the politics of hate. We will not win any war unless we are united!

So what does this have to do with Global Warming???

In the weather blog’s I frequently see Global Warming headings. This is to be expected. The problem to me is the comments show political hate instead of scientific, knowledgeable discussion. There is nothing wrong with debating the science of Global Warming, is it happening? What are the causes? The problem exists when everyone with POLITICAL agendas bring up Al Gore’s name or post films which are inspired not by science but by politics.

Fact is the planet is warming. Now let us all SCIENTIFICALLY examine why and see how concerning it is or is not instead of spewing political hate speech inspired by political ideologs.

God Bless America, let us be united!

You will wake up Sunday and put on the NEWS and hear "Barry" headed our way and while this is true it is not what you think.

 

We are in store for at most a nice Spring Rainstorm....nothing more, nothing less.

 

Many blogs will warn of impending doom, um NO......not even close!

 

What will we see.......

 

Rain beginning tommorow mid-day through tommorrow night becoming more intermittent Monday Morning.

 

Total Rainfall 1-2" Locallized 3"

Winds 15-25 inland 20-35 in the coastal areas.

Very little if any thunderstorm activity.

 

We are not getting anything close to a Hurricane or a Tropical Storm here....it is a Spring Rainstorm.

 

Now that I said that prepare for doom.......LOL.......I am only an amateur and could be wrong!  I just wanted to get my forecast on record.

 

Check out David A's Weather Discussion and Video Blog for Analysis from a Meteorologist.

As stated this Morning NO SNOW...this is a RAIN/WIND Storm...A Nor'Easter!

 

The Question is how strong of a Nor'easter will it be, the 12Z Model Runs are in and WOW!

 

Lets take Model by Model, my numbers are for Philly:

 

NAM

2.4" of Rain

25-30 MPH GUSTS 50

984 MB Lowest Pressure

 

GFS

3.81" of Rain (2.3 in 6 Hours from 8 AM- 2PM Sunday)

20-25 MPH GUSTS 45

980 MB Lowest Pressure

 

Canadien

4" of Rain

30 MPH GUSTS 50

978 MB Lowest Pressure

 

Here is my call at 2PM Saturday.....

1) 2-4" of Rain Region wide.....locally 5+"

2) Winds sustained 20-30 MPH Inland Gusts to 50, 30-40 MPH Coast Gusts to 60

3) The low looks to be about a 980MB, which is strong.

More updates today!!!!!

 

Stay inside tommorow!

So as you know for days now many on the blog have been calling for "doomsday" and "disaster" and many have been hoping for the miracle April Snow.

 

First off if you live East of Harrisburg FORGET SNOW!!!!!!

 

This will be a rain and wind event, a typical Nor'Easter.

 

The Question is how strong of a Nor'easter will it be.

 

We ARE NOT talking death and destruction here, however this storm will be fun to track and could be dangerous especially by the coast.

 

Here is what I see at 11AM Saturday.....

1) There will be NO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW in the Philadelphia area, maybe some wet flurries at the end.

2) Closest place with a chance of a decent snow is State College, thats pretty far.

3) The low looks to be in the range of 980-990MB, which is strong.

4) Look for 2-3" of Rain with Flooding, Winds of 20-30MPH with gusts to 40-50MPH.

 

I will have a few updates today!!!!!

 

Stay in tommorow!

I am back!!!!!

 

Florida was great and the warm weather came back with me for now.

 

Temps should stay warm until next week when the cold will return, will it be a Winter return????  Stay tuned......

 

Temps reached 80+ in many areas today as forecasted by David A on Fox.......props!!!!!!

 

David A. has a great blog up I recomend for all to read.........Forecasting is more than spitting out Model input!!!!

 

Here was my comment to David:

 

David,  one of the best posts I have read on this site....AMEN I say....I totally agree that many forecasters in this area give you the model output and use it as gospel to form there forecast.

That is why I watch FOX, Rog G, yourself, and Jim N use the modles as guidance along with personal experiences and years of learning to give a true forecast.

Again Superb Post!!!

 

See you soon on the blog!

 

RobBen

What a storm!!!!

As you will see below on the blog this why by far our biggest Winter Storm of the year.   I have never seen such high sleet totals. 

 

The disappointment for most was that it was sleet not snow however even the sleet toals were impressive.

 

Here is a breakdown of my forecast versus the final totals:

 

Forecast for Philly Metro S&E was:

Sleet/Freezing Rain and alot of it accumulating 2-5" changing to Snow with 1-2" of snow! (If there is more freezing rain than expected watch out!)

 

Final Numbers for Philly Metro S&E:

It never changed to snow so I was wrong there however my amounts were not bad.  Here are some official NWS Amounts: Philadelphia = 3", Wilmington = 2.4", Mount Laurel = 3.5", Mount Holly = 3.5", Drexel Hill = 4", Media = 3", Roxborough = 4.8"

 

I give my forecast a B here 2-5" looks right on!!!!

 

Forecast for N&W Burbs of Philly:

Sleet Heavy 3-6" changing to Snow with 1-3" more.

 

Final Numbers for N&W Burbs of Philly:

I was pretty good with this forecast.  Here are some official NWS Accumulations:  Warminster = 5.5", Bensalem = 6.25", Glenmoore (Chester County) = 6", Downingtown = 3", King of Prussia = 5.5", Willow Grove = 4.8", Royersford = 4.1"

 

Not to gloat but i get an A here WOOHOO!!!

 

Forecast for Lehigh Valley, Berks County, Lancaster County:

Sleet and Snow 6-12"

 

Final Numbers for Lehigh Valley, Berks County, Lancaster County:

Again not bad!!!!  Here are the NWS numbers:  Reading = 8.5", Birdsboro = 6.5", Slatington (Lehigh County) = 10", Allentown = 8.5"

 

Again I get a B+, A here too WOOHOO!!!!!

 

Forecast for the Poconos:

Snow 12"+

 

Final Numbers for the Pocono Region:

Again not bad.  Here are the NWS Numbers:  Pocono Summit = 13", East Strousburg = 13.2", Effort (No Idea where it is LOL) = 18", Albrightsville = 18"

 

I think this is a B+, A as well!!!

 

Wow I really did well with the totals, I thought it would be more of a slow sleet total and in most places it ended up being mostly if not all sleet.  However much better with this storm for my forecasting!

 

Final Grade = B+

 

Well Clearwater in 2 DAYS!!!!

 

Happy St Patties Day!!!!!!!!!!!!

The coastal low pressure has taken shape and the cold air is locking in.....this will be worse than I though.

 

This looks to be a classic nor'easter and with these storms you get surprises, I am sure these are to come!  This storm will be very fun to track.

 

I caution anyone traveling in the are tonight..DONT!!! Stay home!  Be extremely careful if you have to drive.  Road conditions are awful and accidents are piling up!

 

The heaviest part of the storm will be from now until 10 PM tonight!!!

 

My current thought for Philly Metro S&E is:

Sleet/Freezing Rain and alot of it accumulating 2-5" changing to Snow with 1-2" of snow! (If there is more freezing rain than expected watch out!)

 

My Current thought for N&W Burbs of Philly:

Sleet Heavy 3-6" changing to Snow with 1-3" more.

 

My Current thought for Lehigh Valley, Berks County, Lancaster County:

Sleet and Snow 6-12"

 

My Current thought for the Poconos:

Snow 12"+

 

BE CAREFU!!!!!

So for all us Snowlovers we get ONE MORE!!!!!

 

The front is in the process of going through and temps are tumbling, that trend will continue with showers.  The threat of Thunder Storms is waning and now it is time to watch for SNOW???

 

The GFS and NAM models are right on the border with temps Rain/Snow.....it is real close if you look at the models......if temps end up being lower than what the models show we are hammered with Snow......if temps end up being higher than what the models show we end up with a heavy rain storm.....if the models have the temps right we have a mixed bag.

 

My thoughts as have been all along is Philly Metro will see a more WET event than a FROZEN event.  The models have been too low with temps for the last 3-5 days and that is common in March.  If that is the case here we get heavy rain.  That is where I am leaning.  I do think the backend would be Wet Snow however back end snow is very tough to call.

 

My current thought for Philly Metro S&E as of 2:30 PM Thursday is:

Rain 1-1.25", Wet Snow on the backend changing over late Friday Morning 1-2"

 

My Current thought for N&W Burbs of Philly:

Rain 1", Wet Snow on the backend changing over Friday Morning 2-4"

 

My Current thought for Lehigh Valley, Berks County, Lancaster County:

Rain changing to Snow by Daybreak 3-6"

 

My Current thought for the Poconos:

May begin as rain with a quick changeover to Snow........6-10"

 

I will be updating around 6-8PM tonight......alot to Nowcast, another fun Storm!!!!

 

Just wanted to update my blog with the details of the 0Z and 12Z Model runs.  All have backed off the GUNG HO 18Z GFS snow from yesterday. 

 

The forecast looks to be very warm today and into tommorow with a cold front pushng through tommorow afternoon, this will bring some rain and perhaps some strong storms to the area tommorow afternoon.   As the colder air tries to spill in another wave of Low Pressure forms off the coast and rides the front. 

 

The 12 Z Model Runs today are bothe consistent showing the cold air never really getting in place in Metro Philly to be SNOW.  The NAM does show some light back end snow, he GFS does not.  Looks like a good Rain Storm in Philly. 

 

However if you live in the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, NYC, Berks County West this bears watching.  That is where I see the rain snow border setting up with this storm.

 

I think chances of accumulationg Snow in Philadelphia Metro are around 10%. 

 

Why?

 

1)  Temperatures today will push 75 in the metro area and without a cold surface the snow will have a very hard time accumulating even if it snows!

 

2)  If this happens it MUST be at night, if it is during the day FORGET ABOUT IT! 

 

 

We shall see but one thing for sure we have a cold weekend ahead!!!!

 

FIVE DAYS TILL I AM IN CLEARWATER WITH THE PHILLIES!!!

Just wanted to update my blog real quickly to mention the Snow idea being floated by the 12Z and 18Z GFS.  The 12Z and 18Z GFS paint a much colder picture with some moisture from a developing coastal low.  This would mean a decent Snow in the Lehigh Valley with a possible light snow accumulation in Philly Metro.

 

The 18Z NAM (GARBAGE RUN) is the first one in range for Friday and shows nothing!!!!!

 

I want to see what the 0Z runs tonight show before I totally discount the notion however I think chances of accumulationg Snow in Philadelphia Metro are less than 10%.  The lehigh valley could see a light accumulation and the poconos should watch the situation closely.

 

Why?

 

1)  Temperatures tommorow will push 80 in the metro area and without a cold surface the snow will have a very hard time accumulating even if it snows!

 

2)  If this happens it MUST be at night, if it is during the day FORGET ABOUT IT! 

 

 

We shall see but one thing for sure we have a cold weekend ahead!!!!

Figured I would get a Blog update out to show the way the workweek and weekend are looking.

 

Next week at this time I will be in Clearwater enjoying the Phillies!!!!!

 

The forecast over the next 6 days will be full of clouds from warmth to rain to windy and cold.  To borrow David A's phrase lets ride the Roller Coaster!!!!!!

 

Tuesday - Cloudy, High 60/ Low 40

Wednesday - Partly to Mostly Cloudy, High 70/ Low 50

Thursday - Cloudy with Showers, High 68/ Low 55

Friday - Rain, some storms 1" rain possible, High 60/ Low 48

Saturday - Partly to Mostly Coudy, High 50/ Low 35

Sunday - Mostly Cloudy Windy and COLD, High 40/ Low 28

 

The early part of next week looks chilly with a warmup towards late week. 

 

Talk to you all on the blog, feel free to comment!!!!!  Peace!

So the Clipper is over and as with any Mid-Atlantic snow event some are disappointed and some of us are quite pleased.  This was not the Super Clipper and basically averaged what most strong clippers do in the Philly metro area. 

 

My 2-4” call throughout ended up being a little high however many counties averaged right around 2” as I will outline below. 

 

What caused the lower amounts than I expected?  The March Sun!!!!  I mentioned on my first blog on this storm on Sunday that TIMING was key, we needed a late afternoon-overnight storm or the Sun’s Angle could hurt us.  As the system approached I felt the very cold temps would even out with the sun’s angle.  Well lesson learned, the March Sun is critical for daytime snow events and will hold down accumulations no matter how cold it is.

 

I give my forecast  a B-  for this event!

 

Listed below is the average Snowfall by county from the NWS for PA, NJ, and DE:

 

 

PA

Philadelphia 1.5”

Delaware 1.7”

Bucks 2”

Montgomery 1.4”

Chester 1.5”

Berks 1.9”

Lehigh 1.5”

 

NJ

Camden 2”

Burlington 1.5”

Gloucester 2.1”

Cape May 2.5”

Atlantic 2.2”

 

 

DE

New Castle 1.7”

Sussex 2.2”

For the past week the GFS and NAM have been showing a decent clipper coming through tommorow.  Now some of the model runs showed some crazy high amounts which I did not buy.  We just do not ussually see huge snow amounts from a clipper.  I saw this as a strong clipper from the get go 2-4".

 

Last night the 0Z Model runs really backed off the QPF numbers and slid the storm further south.  I remembered Rob G's lesson "dont forecast model run to model run" and I decided to stick to my forecast!

 

Well the 0Z Model Runs are in and here is the breakdown, thanks Dan888 for the help!!!

GFS- up to .25 QPF, this would be 3-5" at 15:1 Fluff Factor

NAM- up to .19 QPF, this would be 2-4" at 15:1 Fluff Factor

NGM- QPF up to .22, 2-4" at 15: Fluff Factor

 MM5- QPF about .23 or so, 2-4" at 15:1 Fluff Factor 

 

2-4" was the call Sunday morning, it was the call Monday when the GFS showed .6 QPF, and it is the call now!!!!

 

Snow will start between 8-10AM and end btween 4-6PM.  Higher amounts south and east, lower amounts north and west. 

For the past week the GFS and NAM have been showing a decent clipper coming through tommorow.  Now some of the model runs showed some crazy high amounts which I did not buy.  We just do not ussually see huge snow amounts from a clipper.  I saw this as a strong clipper from the get go 2-4".

 

Last night the 0Z Model runs really backed off the QPF numbers and slid the storm further south.  I remembered Rob G's lesson "dont forecast model run to model run" and I decided to stick to my forecast!

 

Now the 0Z NAM shows QPF's up again and the storm further north like 90% of the previous 4 days model runs.

 

2-4" was the call Sunday morning, it was the call Monday when the GFS showed .6 QPF, and it is the call now!!!!

 

Well the 0Z NAM and GFS runs are in and they have shifted slightly south and are drier which if you read my previous blogs I expected.

 

Here are the QPF's

NAM has .19 for Philly with temps around 20, snow would start Wednesday Morning and end Wednesday night.  2-4" Looks like the call here.

 

GFS looks to have about .17QPF down from the 12Z run of .40, snow would start Wednesday Morning and early morning Thursday.  This model would show 2-4" as well.

 

The models have really come together on QPF and temps, they have come down a bit which is common on clippers.  The models always overdue these early and then come back down.  The reason we get the accumulation is the cold air. 

 

SJ and DE look to be on the higher end of the 2-4", PPhilly and north on the lower end.

 

The Workweek Forecast    

                                                    
 

TUESDAY- Partly Cloudy and Cold!  High 28  Low 15                      

WEDNESDAY- Cloudy with Snow begininging in the AM 2-4".  High 22 Low 13

THURSDAY-Clearing and very cold.  High 23 Low 10                   

FRIDAY- Sunny and Clear, warming up.  High 38 Low 13