RobBensalemSnow's Blog

For the past week the GFS and NAM have been showing a decent clipper coming through tommorow.  Now some of the model runs showed some crazy high amounts which I did not buy.  We just do not ussually see huge snow amounts from a clipper.  I saw this as a strong clipper from the get go 2-4".

Last night the 0Z Model runs really backed off the QPF numbers and slid the storm further south.  I remembered Rob G's lesson "dont forecast model run to model run" and I decided to stick to my forecast!

Well the 0Z Model Runs are in and here is the breakdown, thanks Dan888 for the help!!!

GFS- up to .25 QPF, this would be 3-5" at 15:1 Fluff Factor

NAM- up to .19 QPF, this would be 2-4" at 15:1 Fluff Factor

NGM- QPF up to .22, 2-4" at 15: Fluff Factor

 MM5- QPF about .23 or so, 2-4" at 15:1 Fluff Factor 

2-4" was the call Sunday morning, it was the call Monday when the GFS showed .6 QPF, and it is the call now!!!!

Snow will start between 8-10AM and end btween 4-6PM.  Higher amounts south and east, lower amounts north and west.