Raysmom's Blog

 I don't think the rest of the Country realizes just how big a flood there was in Iowa.  These pictures certainly reveal some of it. 

Where are the Hollywood celebrities holding telethons asking for help
In restoring Iowa and helping the folks affected by the floods?

Where's the media asking the tough questions about why the federal government hasn't solved the problem?

Why isn't the Federal Government relocating Iowa people to free hotels in Chicago?

When will Spike Lee say that the Federal Government blew up the levees that failed in  Des Moines? 

Where are Sean Penn and the Dixie Chicks?

Where are all the looters stealinghigh-end tennis shoes and big screen television sets?

When will we hear Governor Chet Culver
say that he wants to rebuild a 'vanilla' Iowa ,
because that's the way God wants it?

Where is the hysterical 24/7 media coverage complete with reports of cannibalism?

 
Is there really  that big a difference between  the people of Iowa and the people of  New Orleans?

YOU DECIDE.

There is an old joke among economists that states:

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.

A depression is when you lose your job.

I'm not addressing the term depression in this blog, I just tossed that in because my son is taking Economics and thought that was funny!

In macroeconomics, a recession is generally associated with a decline in a country's real gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth. According to widespread definition, a recession occurs when real growth is negative for two or more successive quarters of a year.

The US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%,  meaning that the US does not meet the widely accepted definition of a recession. However, some economists attempt to define the word "recession" differently, and suggest that the US is already in one.  The standard definition is unpopular with some economists for two main reasons. First, this definition does not take into consideration changes in other variables. For example, this definition ignores any changes in the unemployment rate or consumer confidence. Second, by using quarterly data this definition makes it difficult to pinpoint when a recession begins or ends. This means that a recession that lasts ten months or less may go undetected.

While some economists are confident about a recession, others are not as easily convinced.  Some believe that the current slowdown will at best be a mild and brief recession, and there is always an anticipation that the economy may start recovering in the later part of 2008.

Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on April 6, 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession." However, Anatole Kaletsky has argued that a recession is unlikely if the US economy gets through the next two months without contracting.  He is aleading economist in the UK who specializes in foreign markets, and he has this to say about Wall Street:   "The markets may simply be wrong about the economic outlook and about the value of financial assets, as they have been many times in the past. Hence the adage that “Wall Street is a great economic forecaster - it has predicted six of the last three recessions”. "  LOL!

So, I suppose we could be in a recession, or be in one and not know it yet, or maybe not, depending on your take on what a recession is!.   This is very convenient for politicians and their rhetoric, don't you think?

Strategies for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. While Keynesian economists may advocate deficit spending by the government to spark economic growth, supply-side economists may suggest tax cuts to promote business investments.  Laissez-faire economists may simply recommend the government remain "hands off" and not interfere with natural market forces.

What do you think? 

There has been a lot of noise in Congress lately about regulating the O&G industry, and crticism of O&G executives for their profits.  Many think we should end subsidies to this industry, also.   Democrats think we should be able to control speculators, sue foreign countries that create monopolies, and limit production to save the environment.  Why just O&G?

Let's look at some numbers from the Ethanol industry.  This is the most highly subsidized  industry in the country, with the bulk of the(bi-partisan, in all fairness) 300 Billion $$$ Farm Bill going to producers of corn for ethanol production, while corn is selling at an all-time high, with no relief in sight.  Bush threatened to veto, but once again, special interests won out.

George Soros is the single largest individual investor in this ethanol  industry.  Will he be facing Congress and gov't controls any time soon?   Will subsidies to corn farmers be questioned?  Why aren't environmentalists screaming about the 750,000 acres of Brazilian rainforest being lost every 6 months due to ethanol production?  Or the world-wide food shortage attributed to using corn for fuel instead of food?  Or rising food prices in this country?

Rules for some and rules for others, I suppose, because rich executives are bad and rich land owners are good.  Right?  

THE ETHANOL REPORT  2007 v. 2008

Year Ago   This Week        Difference

Ethanol ($/gal)

Iowa $1.94           $2.73                             40.46%

Neb. $1.96             $2.67                             36.22%

S.D. $1.92              $2.65                            38.38%

 Corn ($/bu)

 Iowa $3.24        $6.30                               94.29%

 Neb. $3.59          $6.43                               79.11%

S.D. $3.30           $6.31                               91.06%

Distillers Grains ($/ton)

10% Moisture

Iowa $95.00    $197.50                     107.89%

Neb.     n/data             $195.00           
           no data

S.D.  $95.00    $187.50                       97.37%

65% Moisture

Iowa $36.88   $68.75                          86.44%

Neb.  $47.00  $71.00                        51.06%

S.D.   $30.00   $58.00                          93.33%

Source:  AMS/USDA