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There's no doubt about it, Hillary Clinton won a decisive victory over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania. But let's make sure we keep things in context: she didn't score a knockout. Her best chance of vying for the nomination was to win Pennsylvania so overwhelmingly to cause a conflagration of doubt over Obama's electability--one that would lead superdelegates to wonder whether she might not be an infinitely stronger candidate to battle McCain in November. But her numbers in Pennsylvania have declined in the last few weeks; in the wake of revelations about Obama's relationship with Pastor Wright, Clinton was ahead by as much as 20 percent in polls. By contrast, her victory last night reflected a lead of 9.4 percent.

Obama, of course, cut into Clinton's lead by outspending her two-to-one on advertisements. But Clinton seriously impaired her own chances by going negative on Obama during the April 16th debate--and probably, too, by her subsequent ads. It's hard to know for sure, but the polls seem to show that these tactics cost her, especially among white college-educated voters who don't like to think of elections as bar brawls.

And so Clinton struggles to remain relevant in the Democratic race. She's still hanging on, waiting for a miracle--whether a huge gaffe on Obama's part, or some sudden halo-inducing episode of her own. For now, undecided superdelegates seem unlikely to ignore Obama's advantage and risk a massive and bloody civil war among Democratic voters.

But Pennsylvania wasn't just about Hillary and Obama. The specter of McCain loomed large as issues about Obama's overall electability were called into question. While Obama was able to curtail Clinton's advantage, he couldn't erase it. And even though he campaigned extensively among white working class Pennsylvanians, he still couldn't crack this constituency. He lost every white working class county in the state. He lost the greater Pittsburgh area by 61 to 39 percent. And, he did poorly among Catholics--losing them 71 to 29 percent. He also lost ground among the upscale white professionals that had helped him win states like Wisconsin, Maryland and Virginia. Some pundits are saying Obama's weaknesses as a general election candidate are growing more obvious with each successive primary; that his suspect associations--whether with Reverand Wright or former Weatherman Bill Ayers or real estate developer Tony Rezko--may have tarnished his image, and ultimately undermine his ability to attract middle class Republicans and Independents.

So, what are your thoughts about the candidates' chances now that Pennsylvania has spoken? Do you think Clinton has any chance of overtaking Obama's delegate lead and capturing the nomination, or do you think Obama's pretty much got it locked up? Finally, do you think either Democrat stands a chance of rising to the challenge of beating McCain come November?

Leelila_Strogov's Blog

Pennsylvania Weighs In

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