Jim Nichols Weather Blog

Gerald Kolpan reminded me the other day of a famous New Jersey radio station that used to feature "weather in a word." Well, if I were to sum up this storm for the weekend in just one word, it'd be: Everything.

That's right, we have a little bit of everything setting up for this weekend…rain, sleet, snow and perhaps a touch of freezing rain. The computer models did us a favor by coming to some sort of consensus, which is always helpful. I am a bit hesitant on the final call for this storm because 1.) The models have been forecasting way to warm recently, 2.) We are depending on a yet-to-form Low off the NC coast 3.) We are banking on the primary storm to phase into the coastal storm...which is always tricky. Anyone who follows coastal storms knows that where it forms and where it mergers a highly volatile.

However, you just can't ignore the very strong warm signals the data is providing. Upper level temperatures surge above freezing even through the Lehigh Valley. The storm's timing seems to have slowed a bit, with a nighttime arrival but on the heels of a day's worth of warm air. When faced with such factors, it is always important for a forecaster to rely on the data, run the most probable cause and eliminate any personal "want" or "desire" for either snow or rain. With that said, the best data supports a snow start in Philly and North and West with a quick changeover to rain Saturday night. A wintry mix is anticipated to be the "major" impact further north in the Lehigh Valley and significant snow is to be expected in Northern Pennsylvania and New York state. Any accumulations of the first snowfall locally (at the storm's onset) or at the end of this storm will be difficult to substantiate. The rain will most likely washout any snow to start and the ground will be well saturated and therefore, slower to cool as the snow showers arrive on the storms departure Sunday. With that said...a simple shift in the storm track can dramatically change all of this, but it seems now that rain will be the dominate factor for most of the area with icy conditions in the Northwest suburbs.

Once this storm moves out, cold, windy conditions set in. The sun will make an appearance on Monday and stick around through the end of the week.

Enjoy!