Glenn_Richards's Blog

O.K.  Here we go again!

Looks like Hanna will be a thorn in our side on Thursday.  Latest models keep Hanna just offshore...but not by much.  That would put us on the weaker side...but still near enough to get 40+ mph winds along the coast and lesser winds inland.  That'll mean the much more beach erosion than we received from Fay, plus another shot at 2"-5" of rain.  Unfortunately, most of that rain would fall on the east side of the state...i.e. St. Johns river.  So flooding may get worse and keeps the mosquitos fat and juicy.

Latest info. looks pretty good for us with regards to Gustav. The high pressure that is sitting over Florida is pretty well established and will not be giving way to Gustav.  Instead, Gustav will go around our high...and should scoot into the Gulf this weekend.  Big question will be the upcoming cold front that may sweep up
Gustav early next week and could accellerate him towards the northern...possibly northeastern Gulf.  If the front is strong enough...and our high pressure weakens enough on the western periphery...then it could head up towards Mobile and bring some minimal impact to us?  Should be a fun one to watch..and see how the computer models adjust each day.

Looks like that "spin" that came across Florida the last 3 days is going to be our next tropical depression.  Recon plane is passing through and should find a closed circulation along with some falling pressures.  The visible satt. picture is pretty impressive showing the exploding thunderstorms wrapping around the center.  Looks like it will creep northeast along the GA and Carolina coastlines this weekend.  They'll get some severe storms....some wind...some minor erosion.   We get the opposite...more sun and extra hot as drier air is pulled down from up north for the weekend.  Don't expect a drop in humidity...just a reduced chance for storms.

As of tonight it still looks like the "real" start to our rainy season is at least 10 days away.  That would put it back to mid June....making it the latest start to our rainy season since the spring of 1998!  The extremely large area of wet weather out west is being compensated with a very large dome of dry air across the southeastern U.S.....which shuts down our rainy season.  Lets get some rain down here before we start to get more fires!!

So far this year we have had the most tornadoes ever!  Usually the U.S. averages about 200 through April.  Last year there were 517....this year we've had 708!  What's rough is the fact that May is by far the most active month of the year for tornado production.  The greatest # of tornadoes occurred in 2004 when there were 1,600 tornadoes produced across the U.S..  Right now we are on track to break the all-time record!  Yikes!

Check out the graph below that I nabbed off of the NWS website. 

I heard at a recent hurricane conference that most of the "long term" computer models push the jetstream location a few hundred miles farther north for this hurricane season compared to last year.  If that holds true...then the extra wind shear that helped us out locally last season will be gone...and the steering currents which also kept turning the canes north last season....also will be gone.  The jetstream never locks itself down in a permanent location...but it does meander in set pattern for months.  Right now the jet is located farther north....and has shown signs these past 3-5 weeks of hanging in the midwest.  Hopefully the long range models are off a bit....and we keep steering those bad boys away from Florida.  However, it would be nice to get a few weak tropical depressions to pass over the state and give us some well needed soaking rains this year!

I don't know if it's my imagination, but it seems to me that ever since the real-estate tax was lowered, there have been many more cops handing out tickets on the side of the road.  It makes sense to me that most cities are running very lean due to the drop in their tax revenue....so are they pulling double duty in handing out tickets?   Are they now pulling people over for just going 1-3 mph over the limit?  Obviously, this would make up for some of their lost $$.  If that is the case I'd rather keep the tax rate up higher....at least I can write that off on my tax return. 

I don't plan on speeding anytime too soon....

Looks like 4 new nuclear power plants have been given the thumbs up from the state!  That means our power bills will begin to go up by about 4% per year for the next 10 years to pay for the construction.  Check out the article:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyI
d=89169837

The warming continues!  I still can't figure how some "scientists" claim that the earth has been cooling for the last 20 years??

On the western Antarctic Peninsula, the Wilkins Ice Shelf is disintegrating. (Photo by Jim Elliott courtesy British Antarctic Survey)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Climate warming has increased the volume of summer meltwater on glaciers, which has weakened ice shelves, the scientists say. Sea ice, which protects ice shelves from ocean swell, has reduced also as a result of warming temperatures.

The Wilkins Ice Shelf began retreating in the 1990s. A major breakout occurred in 1998 when 1,000 square kilometers of ice was lost in a few months.

The Wilkins is one of a string of ice shelves that have collapsed in the West Antarctic Peninsula in the past 30 years. The Larsen B became the best known of these, disappearing in just one month in 2002.

The Prince Gustav Channel, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, Wordie, Muller, and the Jones Ice Shelf collapses also underscore the unprecedented warming in this region of Antarctica.

Professor Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey said, "Climate warming in the Antarctic Peninsula has pushed the limit of viability for ice shelves further south, setting some of them that used to be stable on a course of retreat and eventual loss. The Wilkins breakout won't have any effect on sea-level because it is floating already, but it is another indication of the impact that climate change is having on the region."

Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse Blamed on Warming Climate

BOULDER, Colorado, March 26, 2008 (ENS) - An Antarctic ice shelf the size of Manhattan that has been in place for several hundred years is collapsing and falling into the sea because of rapid climate change in a fast-warming region of Antarctica,

I'm still trying to get a good handle on where the 3 main candidates stand with regards to environment and global warming?  I know McCain has voted in the past towards pollution control/pro environment.  Cinton has too....  What about Obama? 

I'd like to get some input and some web links with some unbiased information regarding their views and voting history.

Looks like another round of big storms on Friday night.  Current forecast models bring it across the area between 11am and 4am early Sat. morning.  Since the parent low is located farther south than the previous two....it is possible that these storms will become severe and possibly produce a tornado.  If you have a weather radio.....use it the wx alert mode before you go to bed Friday night!

Looks like we've got 2 periods of rain on the way.  The first one is for late Tuesday with our cold front.  About 1/2 inch is possible.  The 2nd arrives on Thu/Fri with the cold front shifting back up over us from South Florida.  When warm moist air overruns cooler air....it's called overrunning rains.  That is what will take place on Thu./Fri..  Right now it looks like another 1/2 of rain for those 2 days.  This is normally our dry period ....so we'll take it!

I had the opportunity to tune into the National Geographic Special "6 Degrees" this past weekend.  I believe it was an excellent show that explained what worldwide changes would occur with a 1 degree...2 degree...and up to a 6 degree increase in worldwide tempeartures.  What I liked is that it  was not making a political statement claiming that the world "would" warm by a certain amount...but rather gives us some insight as to what would occur with each warming scenario.  

Many of you know that I do believe that global warming is occuring ....the question now is how much, how fast and what percentage of the warming is mad-made.  If you get a chance to view it....I believe it is very accurate and gives you some things to ponder.

Once again...my favorite web site concerning this issue is:

www.realclimate.org

 

Finally, we have a storm system developing in the western gulf of mexico and this should pull up plenty of rain for us beginning Tuesday afternoon.  This is great news because we still have an average rainfall shortage of 6"-9" for the last 12 months.  Unfortunately, there is a slight risk of severe storm with this system for early Wed. morning.  Right now there appears to be a chance for rotating storms which could produce a small F0-F1 tornado.  The upper level winds are not strong enough....nor is the low pressure center strong enough....to produce stronger tornadoes.

It is only fitting that since this our Severe Weather Awareness Week across the southeastern U.S.....we've got a big tornado outbreak developing on Tuesday.  Not for us!  But instead it looks like some 12+ tornadoes could develop across Louisiana, Arkansas, Tenn., KY, and Miss..   The ingredients are all coming together for some big one's too!  F3-F4 types.  So if you are traveling....or have family up that way...give them a heads up and watch them grow.

As normal for this time of the year...we'll end up with a dying cold front and only a few showers on Wed/Thu.  Nothing heavy...nothing bad.