WINTER WEATHER CENTRAL (GETVTHUNDERBOLT's) Blog

For Thursday's cold frontal passage, I think the area will just have a period of scattered showers. Unless you live in the Poconos, I am very doubtful you will see any wet snow mixed in with the rain. I also think the Poconos would be lucky to get a coating of snow out of this. I think the chances of the Lehigh Valley to the Shore of observing wet snow mixed the rain is very minimal and would only occur late in the evening if there is any heavy precipitation.

My eyes on Saturday Night into Sunday. An alberta clipper and a stalled front off the Carolina coast could lead to an Alberta Clipper transferring energy and developing a coastal low pressure area along the front.

I think New York City and Cape Cod will have a chance at picking up a decent shot at accumulating snow. I think in our region, Burlington, Middlesex, Monmouth, and Ocean Counties will observe the highest snowfall totals with some snow accumulation possible elsewhere. I do not think this will be a winter storm event, but rather a significant winter weather event. The track and timing will be very key.

The second storm to watch will be Tuesday. There will be a warm front involved. The warm front will likely move from South to North. Will the front get held up and how fast does it move?

Obviously, the north will have the longest duration of snow. However, I think, unlike Sunday, the temperatures will only rise to the point it ends the snow/freezing rain/sleet when the warm front arrives in your area. We could be talking about lower to mid thirties on the north side of the front and lower fifties on the south side of the front. It could be 52 in Shamong and 37 in Wrightstown one hour and 56 in Shamong and 53 in Wrightstown by the next hour.

Sunday is your best hope for snow. We have a chance at some icing/sleet accretion on Tuesday to rain.

Sunday will be a very windy day.

Doug

A strong arctic cold front will approach on Thursday. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the lower to mid fiftties on Thursday and behind the front, highs will be in the mid thirties on Friday. The Poconos and Lehigh Valley can shave 5-10 degrees off the numbers I expect for Philadelphia and the shore points can add 3-4 degrees.

An Alberta Clipper with perhaps some sort of warm frontal feature will create numerous and widespread snow showers on Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. The timing could change, so keep it tuned.

However, if the warm front does develop and the low pressure area can find a good source for moisture, light snow accumulation is possible.

As December moves on, there appears to be a stronger storm system next week that may begin as a wintry mix with perhaps a changeover to freezing rain or rain.

Doug

Throughout the afternoon and evening, enough instability developed today for not only scattered showers, but a few thunderstorms.

As of 8:00 p.m., a thunderstorm was officially recorded at Philadelphia International Airport.

With temperatures in the upper thirties and lower forties, and still a decent band of showers and thunderstorms moving east-northeaast, in a band almost similiar to a streamer in length and width, some hail, grapuel, or sleet is possible.

Some areas this evening have already had or will have enough grapuel, sleet, hail to cover the ground briefly.

Any t-storm could produce a gust to 45 or 50 mph, locally.

Thursday will be our next system with some more rain showers or a thunderstorm.

Saturday Night into Monday, there could be periods of snow or snow showers.

Doug

TOBYHANNA, in Monroe County, Pennsylvania got .35" of ice accural. I was the ONLY forecaster who called for .25" to .40" of ice accural in that area.

Sleet accumulations did approach one half inch in the Lehigh Valley and I will assume there likely was a bit of icing in the higher elevations of the Lehigh Valley.

Philadelphia reached 58 degrees this morning, most likely our high temperature for the day. We may get back up into the fifties briefly, before scattered showers develop this afternoon.

The BIG STORY today will be strong winds. Winds will become sustained out of the Southwest, 20 to 30 mph. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are likely. The highest terrain and the coastline could have stronger gusts. I have been forecasting strong winds with this system for a few days now.

Doug

It is 30 at Mount Pocono with freezing rain.

This seems to be the only location still hanging onto below freezing/freezing temperatures.

A winter weather advisory remains in effect until midnight for this area.

Winds should kick up to 15 to 25 mph and then 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph.

Very impressive line of severe t-storms went through Florida today and even produced a tornado or two. FYI: It is a 2 hour flight to Florida on a good weather day.

Looks like some developing fog across the FOX 29 area.