SEVERE WEATHER CENTRAL (GETVTHUNDERBOLT's) Blog

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0830 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN THROUGH NRN VA...S-CENTRAL/ERN
   PA...MD...ERN WV...DE...ERN NY...NJ...DC...VT...WRN CT...WRN MA.
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643...645...
  
   VALID 300130Z - 300330Z
  
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   643...645...CONTINUES.
  
   SEVERAL BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD
   ACROSS WW AREAS DURING REMAINDER EVENING.  MOST CONCENTRATED SVR
   POTENTIAL -- MAINLY DAMAGING WIND WITH ISOLATED HAIL -- WILL BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...EVIDENT AT 0110Z FROM
   CLINTON COUNTY NY SWWD TO CUMBERLAND COUNTY PA.  FAVORABLE FACTORS
   WILL INCLUDE DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES -- E.G. 0-6 KM SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT...AND SUBSTANTIAL NORMALCY OF MEAN WIND
   COMPONENT RELATIVE TO ANY N-S OR NNW-SSE ALIGNED BOWING SEGMENTS.
   CAPE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL -- E.G. ROUGHLY 750 J/KG MLCAPE IN 00Z ALB
   RAOB THAT SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING -- BUT
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SVR WIND POTENTIAL AS LONG AS EFFECTIVE INFLOW
   LAYER PARCELS REMAIN SFC BASED OR VERY NEARLY SO.  MODIFIED ALB AND
   LWX RAOBS INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
   AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION.  CURRENT GEOMETRY OF BUOYANCY FIELDS
   INDICATES AIR MASS STABILIZING WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
   TOWARD COAST.  THIS TENDENCY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH REMAINDER
   EVENING HOURS AS NEAR-COASTAL AIR MASS -- ALREADY OVERTURNED BY
   PRIOR CONVECTION IN MANY AREAS -- COOLS DIABATICALLY AT SFC.
   THEREFORE...SVR POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY E OF WW.
  
   FARTHER S ACROSS WRN VA...SBCINH APPEARS TO INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT
   TOWARD AIR MASS AFFECTED BY EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIP....BUT NEARLY 500
   J/KG MLCAPE AND SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS REMAIN IN MODIFIED RNK
   RAOB.  WHILE SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS SFC
   COOLS...DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
   MOST INTENSE CELLS MOVING EWD ACROSS/E OF MOUNTAINS.
  
   REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640 REGARDING NEAR-TERM POTENTIAL
   ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE MCS INVOF VA/NC BORDER...IN SERN PORTION WW
   643.
  
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/30/2008
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
  
   36778035 38517966 40007919 40867836 41217628 42507521
   44797519 45037147 42367272 41157320 40527392 38787506
   38227514 38037632 36947849