WINTER WEATHER CENTRAL (GETVTHUNDERBOLT's) Blog

The Storm Prediction Center has placed three-quaters of the area under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 11 p.m.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southern counties in our area or the other one-fourth of the area under SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 12 a.m.

The severe weather threat is taking time getting here. I think isolated to scattered severe weather will be possible after these expiration times.

I think Mesoscale Discussion 1638 sums this up very well.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0613 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN WV...CT...EXTREME SERN
   OH...VT...PA...NH...NY...NJ...MA...EXTREME WRN MAINE.
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638...642...
  
   VALID 292313Z - 300045Z
  
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   638...642...CONTINUES.
  
   SEVERAL BKN LINE OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
   GENERALLY EWD ACROSS WW AREAS...PAST 00Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 638
   OVER PORTIONS PA.  FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE LINE INITIALLY OVER
   CENTRAL/NRN NY SHOULD PERSIST WITH SVR GUST POTENTIAL E OF WW 642
   INTO PORTIONS VT/NH/MA AND PERHAPS EVEN EXTREME WRN MAINE THROUGH
   LATE EVENING.  THEREFORE...WE ARE CONSIDERING REPLACEMENT WW TO
   CONSOLIDATE WW COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA AND EXPAND IT EWD SOMEWHAT.
  
  
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF RELATIVELY WARM AIR LINGERING IN AIR
   MASS E OF NY BAND...SWWD OVER MUCH OF PA...THAT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
   UNPERTURBED BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  SFC TEMPS UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F WILL
   COOL GRADUALLY...HOWEVER MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL
   FOR SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS.
   MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THIS REGION IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
   FRAGMENTED...WITH POCKETS OF DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 50S PORTIONS
   WRN PA...LOW 60S F OVER NERN PA AND NY ADIRONDACKS...TO 70S OVER
   PORTIONS SERN PA...NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.  MOIST AXIS IS
   ANALYZED THROUGH HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE RELATIVELY WEAK/BACKED SFC
   WINDS ALSO MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD REMAIN
   COMMON ACROSS REGION AS MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ONT...LE
   AND OH PIVOTS EWD/NEWD.  SVR THREAT THUS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER
   DARK...INDICATING NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.
  
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2008
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...
  
   39538127 42107863 42897838 44977502 44997126 44047050
   42687083 40837364 39817496 39717919 39358006