SEVERE WEATHER CENTRAL (GETVTHUNDERBOLT's) Blog

Lancaster County has been placed under a severe thunderstorm watch until 8:00 p.m.

This is very strange as the Local WFO State college has been extending the weather watch well to the east of the original watch box issued by the Storm Prediction Center. I am not sure why the SPC did not issue a new watch box. It can be confusing and misleading.

T-storms should arrive in Lancaster County between 6 and 7:30 p.m. and then move into the rest of the Lehigh Valley and Eastern Pennsylvania between 8:00 p.m. and 9:30 p.m., and into the rest of the area after 9:30 p.m. Thunderstorms could lose their intensity as the sun sets, however very unstable air is existing ahead of this cold front as highs today reached well into the nineties. I would suspect at least isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail even late tonight.

Thus far, this line has had a history of wind damage in Western Pennsylvania.

Doug

Tropical Storm Bertha is becoming extratropical at this hour. The last advisory on the system was issued this morning as it races north and east at 36 mph with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Bertha was the longest living tropical storm/hurricane in July.

Tropical Storm Cristobol is coming very close to the coastal areas of North Carolina. However, the strongest winds are on the east side of the system. Strong winds associated with squalls will occur tonight along the coastal North Carolina region along with thunderstorms. The rain falling with this system is actually beneficial. In our region, the biggest effects will be high surf, dangerous rip currents, and high waves. It will also interact with a cold front on Monday and increase the moisture ahead of it. Therefore, we have an enhanced risk of torrential rains and thunderstorms on Monday.

Tropical Storm Dolly formed this morning. This system will strike the Yucatan tonight in Mexico and then reemerge on Monday in the southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. The other portions of Mexico and Texas need to pay close attention to the future forecasts of this storm. It could loose most of the punch it has once it hits the Yucatan tonight, especially if it goes right over the higher terrain.

Meanwhile, today we should rise into the mid ninties with heat index values at or above 100 degrees. Isolated thunderstorms are more than likely. There are already some forming along a sea breeze front. Torrential rainfall, dangerous lightning, high winds, and hail are possible with some of the thunderstorms. Additional development is possible inland after 3:00 p.m.

Doug

Hurricane Bertha continues to maintain its strength as of 5 p.m. It has yet to become extratropical and maintains hurricane force winds of 75 mph. This hurricane will probably begin a slow weakning/extratropical trend on Sunday. Bertha is the longest tropical storm ever for July. The 67th advisory has been issued on the storm. This is a category one on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane scale.

Tropical Storm Cristobol has increased in strength as of 5 p.m. Sustained winds of 45 mph are now estimated by the National Hurricane Center. Slow strengthening of this system is likely. We will have to watch a building trough to see if it makes the storm turn or slide a bit more left. You must always look at the cone. The cone suggests the storm can be as close as 65 miles from Atlantic City and as far as 330 miles from Atlantic City.

Here is MY latest probabilities.

Rough Surf: 100% chance

Rip Currents: 100% chance

Coastal Flooding/Tidal Flooding: 70% chance

Front and Storm interacting enhancing t-storm potential: 80% chance

Tornado Potential caused by the storm: 10% chance

Heavy Rain: 40% chance

Strong Winds: 30% chance

As of 2 p.m., Tropical Depression 3 has become Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is investigating the storm right now.  This tropical storm should aquire additional strength.

Satellite imagery and radar imagery into early afternoon suggests a better organized tropical system this morning. As of 11 a.m, this system had 35 mph sustained winds according to the National Hurricane Center. The system should become a named tropical storm later today.

The latest track of the system shows the chance for tropical storm force conditions is low, but when looking at the entire cone, we are still vulnerable.

Here is MY percentage chances....

Rough Surf: 100% chance

Rip Currents: 100% chance

Outer band/Squalls: 60% chance

Heavy Rain: 30% chance

Strong winds: 30% chance

Tropical System interacting with front producing enhanced t-storm activity: 80% chance