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by David_Aldrich from FOX 29

Last Post 3 hours Ago


"Kyle" Anyone ?
Sep 21, 2008 | 8:51 PM
Category: Weather
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Remember, summer may be over, but hurricane season is not.

Since late last week, I have been tracking what appears to be our next Tropical storm into the Philadelphia area.  "Kyle" and "Laura" are the next two names on the Atlantic storm list.  Given the drop-off in shower activity between Jamaica and Panama, it appears the storms around Puerto Rico are now the only game in town, so to speak.

If this area of low pressure forms into a tropical storm, it will be assigned the name "Kyle."

 

The timing of this coastal storm (let's assume it's "Kyle") still seems favorable for Friday and Saturday, September 26th and September 27th for the Philadelphia area.

For the latest discussion on this developing storm...

CLICK HERE

 

Compare this new system with Hanna's track.  They are very similar.

Storms that originate from this location make New Jersey, Delaware and Southeastern Pennsylvania vulnerable.

CLICK HERE

 

Below is a copy of my detailed prediction, dated last Friday morning.

_________________________________________________>

 

something Tropical ?

Sep 19, 2008 | 6:20 AM
Category: Weather


It's just after 6 AM on Friday morning.

There is a distrurbing trend on the models that I wanted to share with you regarding next weekend, specifically Friday and Saturday, September 26th and 27th.

Whether it's the GEM, GFS or ECMWF, many of the models are not sure what to do with the area of low pressure that is currently sitting offshore.  (This weekend, a few showers may "dog" the beaches in North Carolina, but obviously no big deal here.)

There is a possibility of something TROPICAL or even subtropical forming offshore of New Jersey by Friday and Saturday, September 26th and 27th.

The next few names on the Atlantic Storm List include:  Kyle and Laura.

If Kyle forms from the disturbance near the Lesser Antilles, our system may be given the name Laura.

It's WAY TOO EARLY to commit, but in a worst case scenario, we could be dealing with another "Hanna" type storm here in the Tri-State by Friday and Saturday, September 26th and 27th.  This would mean HEAVY RAIN, WIND and even isolated tornadoes (remember East Allentown ?)

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Member Comments Total Comments: 12
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B_Don read my blog
Sep 21, 2008 | 9:53 PM

If you aren't right about this, I lose money.

I placed a bet on this storm for next Saturday.
David_Aldrich read my blog view my photos
Sep 21, 2008 | 10:42 PM

LOL.

What do I get ?

Money or grief ?

You want rain, I'll give you rain. :-)

I'll guess you'll be going to SUNY-Brockport then, eh ?
krteacher1 read my blog
Sep 21, 2008 | 10:47 PM

Hey David!!

Long time no talk! The situation developing along the East Coast is a very complicated one and is two fold. We have what could be Kyle? We also have what could be another tropical or subtropical storm along a stalled front in the southeastern States. Does the subtropical or tropical system along the stalled front and high to the north Steer what may be Kyle to the East Coast? It will be interesting. I was just watching you on Fox there.

We talked at the blog party at Chickie and Petes what seems like an eternity ago.

Thanks for the updates on Kyle and Laura?

Kevin Reilly
krteacher1
Media PA.

What do you see happening? And What do you see the affects as being here in the Philadelphia region. I say gusty winds from pressure gradient a few showers and coastal flooding and beach erosion.
David_Aldrich read my blog view my photos
Sep 21, 2008 | 11:56 PM

Hey Kevin (krteacher1) !

So good to see you here again. Don't be a stranger.

Yes, I think coastal flooding and beach erosion are a good bet, regardless. Obviously, the damaging wind and flooding rains would be the headline if we take a direct hit.

As you know, there are dozens of models runs between now and this upcoming weekend. Fine tuning the track is job one. I think once this cluster of storms near Puerto Rico is given Tropical Depression status, people will take it more seriously.

BTW,
Carnivale of the Dogs (Rittenhouse Square) event, which was postponed due to Hanna, was re-scheduled to this Saturday, Sept. 27th. Kinda ironic that "Kyle" may threaten this time.

Also, the Alzheimer's Memory Walk in Wilmington is scheduled for Saturday morning, Sept. 27th.

Preseason Spectrum match-up of Flyers and (of course) the Carolina Hurricanes is scheduled for Saturday, Sept. 27th. Now that is ironic.
B_Don read my blog
Sep 22, 2008 | 5:01 AM

If I lose the bet, I guess I will end up going to SUNY-Brockport. LOL.
krteacher1 read my blog
Sep 22, 2008 | 4:21 PM

Thanks David,

I will be around

Kevin Reilly
krteacher1
krteacher1 read my blog
Sep 22, 2008 | 4:21 PM

I will be around for updates and give updates tonight.

Kevin Reilly
B_Don read my blog
Sep 22, 2008 | 6:10 PM

Hey Kevin...not sure if you remember me or not, but I remember you. Haven't seen you around here lately.
krteacher1 read my blog
Sep 22, 2008 | 9:37 PM

Two Things To Watch: 1- Kyle?? 2- Tropical Development Along Stalled Front??

Good Evening all:

Well, it has been quite tranquil in the Atlantic Ocean Basin now for a little over a week or so. It has also been very quiet across much of the United States too. Well, all of that could change by the end of the week?

1: Kyle?

Right now we have a very impressive tropical disturbance just southeast of Puerto Rico dumping plenty of rain on the island to the tune of 10-15 inches on the southeast side of Puerto Rico. The disturbance seems fairly organized and does look to have a center as witnessed on the radar and IR satellite. I think it is just a matter of time until we have a depression or we go right to Tropical Storm Kyle. I think that this system will not develop until it gets on the north side of Puerto Rico as it will be rather close to land and or cross over Puerto Rico overnight into tomorrow afternoon. This system right now is invest 93L and does need to be monitored. Now first look at the models and it appears what could be Kyle is destined to go west of Bermuda but well east of the East Coast of the United States.

There is a complication to this situation though as the models will not pick up until two things happen. One Kyle develops and also models see what to do with another tropical like system developing along the front stalled off the Southeast Coast of the United States.

If Kyle were to develop it does have the potential to develop into a hurricane a rather strong one too perhaps up to Category 2 strength.

2: Tropical Development Alon
krteacher1 read my blog
Sep 22, 2008 | 9:38 PM

Hey B_Don,

I remember you. As Rob went I went but I am branching out again.

Thanks,
Kevin
krteacher1
krteacher1 read my blog
Sep 22, 2008 | 11:26 PM

Hey all,

I posted a blog you can all check it out. An update on the weekend situation.

Kevin
David_Aldrich read my blog view my photos
Sep 23, 2008 | 12:19 AM

Good analysis, Kevin. (see Kevin's blog)

However, rainfall, I think, will be closer to 3 to 5 inches locally here. The track is everything.

Who gets the name "Kyle" first?

Door (system ) # 1

or

Door (system) # 2

Sounds like a game show. Isn't this fun ?

I am kidding, of course.
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David_Aldrich

Hi, I'm David Aldrich, the Weekend Meteorologist for Fox 29. I'm a "weather geek" at heart and love to talk about all aspects of Philadelphia weather. I joined the FOX 29 Weather Team in October 2005, as the "Ten O'Clock News" weekend weather anchor. I also produce and report on the weather three days a week on "Good Day Philadelphia." In August 2006, I was upgraded by the American Meteorological Society to their Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) designation, a professional recognition of the quality of my weather broadcasts. I also hold the Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association.Born and raised in Wilmington, Delaware, I attended the University of Delaware before transferring to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I received my Bachelor of Arts degree in radio, television and motion pictures in 1992. I then attended North Carolina State University where I received my Bachelor of Science degree in meteorology in 1999.

Member Since: 10/25/2006


 

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