Dan’s Weather Dialogue

It's looking a little more likely that much of North Texas will take a chilly plunge this weekend behind a strong cold front that will sweep through North Texas Friday evening. The Canadian blast will likely keep temps in the upper 50s on Saturday, and then as high pressure settles over the area early Sunday morning, the DFW area could very well see its 1st freeze of the Fall season. (Before you send me an e-mail....I realize many areas to the north and west of the Metroplex have already seen their first freeze) Temps should quickly warm-up on Sunday afternoon as winds turn to the south. By the way...the average date of the first freeze for the DFW area is November 22nd.

It was just what the doctor ordered....a nice soaking rainfall for most of North Texas. In fact, DFW measured it's highest daily rainfall total, 1.51", since March 18th! That should tell you how dry it's been this year! In the wake of today's heavy showers and t-storms, we'll see a few light showers or sprinkles on Thursday morning followed by gradual clearing. Beautiful Fall weather then is in store this weekend with cool mornings and mild afternoons! Here are a few of today's rainfall totals:

Corsicana: 2.21"

Grand Saline: 1.80"

Cleburne: 1.79"

DFW: 1.51"

Commerce: 1.00"

Midlothian: 1.00"

Duncanville: .75"

Coppell: .73"

The Colony: .61"

Forney: .60"

Gainesville: .25"

W. Fort Worth: .20"

Plano: .16"

 

Fortunately for most North Texans, Ike brought little more than some gusty winds and brief, heavy rain. (DFW only gusted to 35 mph and only measured .23" of rain!) The reason is that Ike tracked just far enough to our east to keep it's torrential rains in East Texas, and it's expansive wind field shrunk considerably after making landfall, particularly on its western side.

Still, Ike's wrath was felt in areas far removed from the coast with tornadoes in northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, and hurricane force wind gusts as far away as Louisville, KY! The good news for folks in Galveston, Houston, and SW Louisiana is that dry, tranquil weather will continue for the next few days and there are NO active tropical systems in the Atlantic for the first time in a month!

That's the million dollar question as I write this blog late Friday night. It does appear a majority of computer models are favoring a landfall on the central coast of Louisiana early next week. One of the big determining factors will be a developing ridge of high pressure to the north of Gustav over the eastern U.S. At the present time, it appears a weakness in the ridge will allow Gustav to continue a northwest track toward Louisiana. If the ridge is stronger and builds farther south toward the central Gulf coast, Gustav could be steered farther west, closer to Texas. At this point, it appears like much of Florida is "out of the mix". As far as how strong Gustav will be at landfall...again, there is some uncertainty. As of right now, it appears a distinct possibility that Gustav will achieve Category 4 status at some point in the Gulf of Mexico, and possibly even Cat 5 status. What typically tends to happen though is as the hurricane moves closer to shore, the depth of warm water decreases, and the storm loses a bit of its punch. That was the case with Rita and Katrina. However, it's not as clear cut as that. There are many other factors such as wind shear, dry air that can be sucked into the storm, and the changeable inner dynamics of the storm that can all have an impact on the hurricane's intensity. All North Texans are urged to keep an eye on Gustav as it could eventually move into East Texas as a tropical storm by the middle of next week. Stay with FOX 4...We'll keep you 4-Warned!

Last week we took a trip back East to visit friends and relatives and wrapped up our vacation in Washington, DC. No doubt, the highlight of the trip was my family's visit to the White House! A friend who works on Capitol Hill arranged our tour. While we didn't catch a glimpse of President Bush (he was out of town), we did get to see perhaps the most famous office in the world...The Oval Office. By the way...Did you know that President Bush uses the same desk that his father used and that President Kennedy used? Yes, the same one you've seen in the famous picture of John Jr. crawling through the door underneath the desk. In fact, beautiful photos graced the walls of all the hallways we walked through. The pictures are changed on almost a daily basis, highlighting the President's daily routines from meeting foreign leaders to shaking hands with a school teacher in Omaha. We also got to see the famous White House Rose Garden...I was surprised to see the lack of rose bushes! It  still made for a great photo op. Coincidentally, there were only 2 places "inside the White House" you could snap photos...The Rose Garden and The White House Press Briefing Room. We took a picture of our 3 year old sleeping in her stroller! Now she can always tell her friends she got to sleep at the White House! We spent the next day strolling around the Monuments and ended our day with a visit to Arlington National Cemetery where we witnessed the famous Changing of the Guard at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. What a powerful, moving ceremony! Friends, if you haven't made a trip to D.C., I highly recommend it!

A tropical-like air mass continues to spread northward into North Texas as Tropical Storm Dolly crawls through Deep South Texas. While most of North Texas was rain-free today, there is some hope for a bit of drought relief for parts of North Texas on Thursday.  Southern areas such as Stephenvile, Meridian, Hillsboro, and Corsicana will stand a little better chance (30%) of seeing an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm. Those rain chances diminish to no better than 20% in the immediate DFW area, and then quickly fall to near zero north of Denton and McKinney. Not the best of news, but at least it's a chance of rain. While we continue to keep our fingers crossed for some tropical downpours, folks down in the Rio Grande Valley are hoping for just the opposite. City officials in Cameron County are concerned the levees may not withstand the 10-20 inches of rain expected in the next 24 hours. The last time a hurricane took a similar track through Deep South Texas was in 1967...Hurricane Beulah devastated the Rio Grande Valley.  Prior to this month, South Texas was experiencing severe drought conditions. By tomorrow, there will likely be widespread flooding. It's kind of cruel how weather works sometimes.

That's how my yard fared with yesterday's "pop-up" storms. They missed my house by no more than 3 city blocks! I recorded no more than a trace of rain at my house, but no more than 1/4 mile to my east they had a good 1/2 to 1" of rain! Ugggh!! Yes, even the weatherman gets very frustrated with Ma Nature!

One peek at the DFW record books is all you need to quickly realize just how scorching hot it was during the Summer of 1980....42 consecutive 100 degree days...69 total 100 degree days....37 record highs broken/tied....and a total of only 1.96" of rain for the entire Summer! Whew!  Here's a little "snippet" from WikiPedia about the "Endless Summer" of 1980....

The 1980 United States heat wave was among the most devastating natural disasters in terms of deaths and destruction in U.S. history. The heat wave claimed at least 1,700 lives[1]. Also because of the massive drought, agricultural damage estimates neared US$44 billion (1998 dollars). It is among the billion-dollar weather disasters listed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

I spent that summer in the cooler confines of southern Delaware. A quick poll of my FOX 4 colleagues revealed that most everyone was living somewhere else at the time. However, Clarice Tinsley remembers it vividly. It was her first Summer in North Texas! Clarice tells me it was so hot you didn't even want to leave the house. Any native North Texan bloggers remember the Summer of 1980? Feel free to share your thoughts....

It's not too often we talk about the potential of a cold front slipping south of the Red River a week into Summer, but this weekend may be one of those rare cases! The cold front will slowly ease south of the Red River Saturday night into Sunday, setting the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe. Right now, it appears the stormy weather will hold off until at least late Saturday afternoon. While the severe weather would most certainly NOT be welcome, the cooler air we may see behind the front on Sunday would be! In fact, if some of the latest computer model projections are correct, parts of North Texas, especially north of DFW, may not get out of the 80s on Sunday. Stay tuned...

WInds won't be quite a strong this weekend as they have been the last few days when 40-45 mph gusts have been the norm. Look for winds to range between 15 and 25 mph with gusts of 30 mph. The strong winds of late have been a result of areas of deep low pressure forming to the lee of the Rockies with high pressure anchored over the Southeast U.S. The pressure difference between the High and Low have put North Texas in a very favorable area for persistent, strong winds out of the south. The continued south-southeasterly flow will continue to also pump Gulf moisture into North Texas. The combination of temps in the 90s and dewpoints around 70 will result in heat index values over the century mark...Stay cool!

Yes, many of you were probably asking that question this morning after a surprise 1 to 3 inch deluge in North Texas. While the heavy downpours did create some rushhour headaches, the rain was very welcome! DFW had only seen .01" rain in the past 13 days!

The rain came as a result of an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System)...in layman's terms, a thunderstorm complex. The MCS made a right turn in Oklahoma and headed southbound on I-35 into North Texas. These thunderstorm complexes are pretty typical this time of year and often are nocturnal, feeding off Gulf moisture that is pumped northward late at night by winds around 1-2,000 feet called a low-level jet. They can fire up as far away as the High Plains of Southeast Colorado late in the afternoon and then track southeast, often not making it here until well past midnight.

Enjoy the rain...after tomorrow, the ridge gets reestablished and so does the heat and dry weather!

A TORNADO WATCH continues for much of North Texas through 9pm this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to fire ahead of a retreating dryline out in Young County, about 70 miles northwest of Fort Worth, and down south in Brownwood, about 100 miles to the southwest. The Young County storm looks very impressive with large hail (over 2" in diameter) and some strong rotation. While I do not anticipate any severe weather in the DFW area through 9pm, storm chances will increase overnight as a cold front slowly pushes in from the northwest. With a tropical-like airmass in place, any storms that do develop will be capable of producing torrential rain. In addition, the threat for severe weather will continue well past 9pm, and there is a good possibility a second Watch box will have to be issued for at least part of North Texas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado or two will still be possible. Wednesday is likely to be quite active so stay tuned!

10:30 pm Tuesday update...

All of North Texas remains under a "SLIGHT" risk for severe weather tomorrow morning through at least mid-afternoon. While the setup for this next round of storms does not look quite as impressive as a few episodes earlier this Spring (storms are arriving before peak heating and cloud cover should limit overall instability), the Pacific Storm in the upper atmosphere is very strong and will likely track right over North Texas early tomorrow afternoon. The primary severe weather threats at this time appear to be damaging wind gusts of up to 70 mph and large hail, perhaps up to golfball-size. A few isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

Storms are already underway in West Texas in advance of the Pacific trough and will impact western portions of North Texas first...perhaps as early as 7am. Storms will likely intensify as they move east ahead of the dryline, and should be in the DFW area by late morning, and then in far eastern sections of North Texas by early afternoon. 

Stay tuned to FOX 4 for the very latest information.

Wow, we're not used to this. Cool, comfortable mornings with bright, sunny, warm afternoons and not a cloud to be found! Well, slowly but surely our tranquil break will give way to more stormy weather. I think we'll see a few scattered storms sneak south of the Red River Thursday night into early Friday morning. While a few storms could be severe, the bulk of the severe weather will stay well to our north. By Sunday, another Pacific storm will settle into the Desert SW, and with a front likely "in the neighborhood" and Gulf moisture streaming northward, we could be in for a 2-3 day period of stormy weather...Stay tuned!

Little league baseball season is well underway and I again have the privilege of coaching my son's team. (I'm actually the assistant coach) Anyway, while coaching first base last weekend I wintnessed my son's first "over the fence" homerun! As they say, he got all of it! I gave him a big high-five at first base and he was beaming from ear to ear! Of course, it was the one game my wife and my daughters were not able to make so they had to settle for the play-by-play account from me and a look at the game ball. I have agood feeling about our team this year! I think we could go far into the playoffs. But whatever the outcome, I'll always look fondly back on the moment and remember that smile on my son's face when he knew he'd hit his first real homerun!