CristyLi

New Study Shows Polling Significantly Understates Support for Traditional Marriage


September 18, 2008
Sacramento – A new study comparing polling in 26 states – including California – measuring voter opinion on ballot initiatives to define marriage as being between a man and a woman, shows that support for these measures has been under-estimated by an average of seven percentage points. In some cases, polls have under-estimated support for traditional marriage by as much as 21 percentage points.

"Recent polls published by California media outlets claim that Proposition 8 to restore marriage in California as between a man and a woman, is trailing among voters. These polls, including the Field Poll released this week, suffer from the same historic problem that other polls on this subject around the country have had: they do not accurately reflect the true support for traditional marriage," said Frank Schubert, campaign manager for ProtectMarriage.com – Yes on 8, the sponsors of the California marriage initiative who released the study today. "For example, the Field Poll showed that support for Proposition 22 in 2000 was at 53% right before the election, yet over 61% of voters supported the proposition."

The study looked at the same-sex marriage issue in 26 states where it has appeared on the ballot, going back to the first such campaign in Hawaii in 1998. Surveys published by news media outlets before an election under-estimated support for traditional marriage by an average of seven points. In only two states (Texas and South Carolina) did pre-election surveys a