Weather or Not

 Well here we go....the last few days of 2008...and what a strange year it has been.  The Spring floods, the general lack of significant severe weather, below normal summer temperatures, the April earthquake, the two big thundersnow events last winter...and the biggest news of all...the all time record for rainfall not just broken... splintered into many tiny pieces!  And then with the post Christmas severe weather and tornadoes...we could all use a break (at least I can) so let's enjoy the next two days of mild and sunny weather...we deserve it!  The jet stream flow will no longer be in that cross-polar flow...instead it's blowing in off the Pacific.  The temps will trend back toward normal late in the week as the flow becomes somewhat more amplified...but still progressive.  This will lead to a shot of colder air returning and perhaps a little light rain/snow mix late Thursday night into Friday.

*** HANG ON FOR A WILD RIDE ***

The time has come to put the old blog to bed and really start to focus on the upcoming eventS.  Yes, I said events…and they may not all be winter.  A very dynamic period of weather is on the way with plenty to keep track of.

Lets start with the short term…Thursday Night…A fast moving clipper will zip down the Missouri River and cut across Missouri.  The upper level energy looks like it will be weakening some as it shears southeast…and over or just west of STL.  This system is pretty weak as far as Clippers go and I’m not too enthusiastic about accumulations late tonight or early Friday.  Possibly a dusting to an inch…just about anywhere…but mainly focused along the Missouri River.  The biggest issue could be the timing…heading through the morning rush.  Overall…I’m not terribly impressed but there still could be some slick roads in spots in the morning. That’s event #1.

Then to the weekend…switch to spring mode!  Warmer air floods north by Saturday.  Temperatures look very mild for this time of year.  Tempering the warm-up will be an extensive shield of lower clouds as models are showing a lot of low level relative humidity.  If those clouds break up…temps in the 60s are not out of the question…especially on Sunday.  With such a strong warm air advection regime, there may be some isolated showers along and ahead of the warm front…but I’m not expecting long duration rainfall over the weekend.  By late Sunday, attention turns to impressive arctic front that will be propelled south by a strong surface low pressure system in the northern plains.  Models are now indicating a healthy amount of instability aloft along and just behind the front so thunder looks like a good bet with the frontal passage Sunday evening.  And, the potential for isolated severe weather cannot be discounted either as the wind fields will be strongly sheared and there may be enough instability present.  In the cold season, you don’t need much instability to support severe…so I’m watching this carefully.  The threat for freezing rain will follow hot on the heals of the thunderstorms and its possible we could have severe thunderstorm warnings for the eastern part of a county with freezing rain falling in the west…it’s that kind of pattern!

It certainly appears there will be enough lift immediately behind the front for freezing rain to continue…and its not out of the realm of possibility that thunder storms with freezing rain will occur…as the cold air surges east under the instability.  The period from midnight into the Monday morning rush could get very interesting.  Fortunately, the ground temps will be quite warm so the initial impact will be on trees and powerlines.  However, once sleet begins to mix in, the roads will chill much more quickly and that’s when the bigger issues will begin.

After the initial round of ice/sleet and some snow…I expect freezing drizzle to set-up for a long stay until the next wave arrives.  That appears to be Tuesday night into Wednesday as a respectable 500mb shortwave ejects out of the southwest and rides over the top of the cold dome.  Currently models seem to show much of this falling as snow…but I have my doubts.  Chances are they will underplay the warm layer aloft and we end up with snow to sleet to freezing rain…or some mix of all three.

That’s enough for now…plenty  more to talk about past the mid-week time frame too… but have to pace ourselves.

First a recap of the first accumulating snow for St. Louis...and rouhgly 1/2  to 2/3rds of the viewing area.  The total at Lambert was 2.4" ... a record for November 30th.

The week starts cold with scattered flurries and snow showers.  I think they will linger into the afternoon hours.  In fact, a quick burst or two of heavier snow showers isn't out of the question.  The 500mb temperatures are very chilly...-30 to -32c....and with moisture still hanging around...some instability enhancement isn't out of the question before skies clear out Monday night.

Tuesday looks like a nice day....with a cold start.  I'm not sold yet on a huge warm-up...but it should at least make it into the lower to mid 40s.  If we can get the southwest wind machine going in the afternoon...we may push into the upper 40s.  But that is questionable right now.

So on to the Wednesday system...

I'm a little more interested in this system now. It's not so much a classic memphis low as it is a strong frontogenetically forced system...supported by two seperate 500mb shortwaves. The lead wave passes to our south...while the trailing wave goes just to our north. It looks like scattered showers will develop along and ahead of the surface front... but what's interesting is the amount of moisture lagging behind in the strong low level thermal gradient behind that front. This zone trails the southern 500mb wave...and is in advance of the more northern wave. Set-ups like this can create a situation where rain quickly changes to snow...with a 2-3 hour quick burst of decent snowfall rates. It's a scenerio I'll have to look more closely at Monday when I have more time to digest the next round of model data. It's entirely possible the models are under-estimating the strength of the southern 500mb wave ... an error that has already occured several times in the past month or so.

Overall...a pretty active first week of December.

*** Much Colder Air on the Way ***

*** First Accumulating Snow Possible for Some by Saturday Night - Sunday Morning ***

Here we go again.... this winter's first decent chance at accumulating snow is another storm that will be developing and intensifying almost right over us.  This leads to lots of complicating factors that make this a bust potential forecast.  Fortunately we are still far enough out that I can edge this one way or another... but my first thoughts on potential accumulations are in the image below.

While similar, the models are offering a wide variety in the small details that should come together to produce accumulating snow for at least a portion of our viewing area by Sunday evening.  I don't have a great feel for the model of choice right now.  But taking a broad approach with the key features shows a track for the primary 500mb vort max over Southeast MO up into southern IL.  The system only begins to close off at 500mb as it passes to our east which should keep the snowfall amounts on the light side for most areas.  Using that 500mb vort max track puts the most signficant risk of accumulating snow centered on a line from Columbia MO...to near Bowling Green....to Near Springfield IL.  While the 500mb system doesn't close off...there is some decent frontogenetic type forcing evident in the 600mb-500mb+ layer...as colder temps aloft work in.  This could give a little extra kick to potential snowfall rates.  Going down a level to 700mb, there is no closed low...until the system passes east of the MS River...another negative factor for major snows...and there is not a strong indication of frontogenesis at this time in the 700mb layer...again...arguing against a significant snowfall.  Down at the 850mb layer modest warm air advection in advance of the system will be the driving force behind the initial burst of precip...which should start as rain...on Saturday afternoon into the evening.  However, as temperatures cool and the lower levels moisten..evap cooling will send temps cold enough for a change to all snow...into STL metro by midnight.

Right now I see a two phase storm system.  Phase #1 is the warm air advection precip which starts as rain by Saturday evening in metro STL.  A change to snow will take place as low levels cool by midnight.   As the system pivots and begins to close off...a deformation zone and weak TROWAL will begin to develop in the "warp around zone"...this will end up producing all snow...and is the primary driving force behind the "dusting to 2" of snow I have painted in metro STL.  Further north...I have a 2+ inch snow possible as they will have the most potential snow impact from both phases of the storm.

I am a little concerned that the models are not producing enough precip in the cold air.  They are all showing plenty of moisture and some decent lift above the -10c line...  I think the biggest limiting factor is that we don't currently have a fully closed off system.  If this thing comes in more closed off...then the numbers will have to be given a boost.

Right now...its not a big storm...but one that I believe has the potential to give roughly the northern 1/2 of the viewing area its first accumulating snow of the season.

 Wow...nice warm-up on Sunday eh?  Another good example of the power of warm air advection ahead of a northwest flow / Clipper type cold front!  It's a pattern we will get to see again by mid week too.

Here's the deal folks...you better fasten your seatbelts because the temperature fluctuations the next 6 to 10 days are going to be pretty amazing.  We start the week with another shot of cold on Monday into Tuesday.  This looks like the coldest air of the season based on the strength of the high and its point of origin.  Temps right now up in Canada are in the single digits above and below zero...and that's where our air is coming from to start the week.  As the colder air arrives on Monday, the models are showing very limited moisture...except in a small sliver from about 6,000 feet down during the day on Monday.  There's enough forcing in that moist layer...along with some low level instability in the cold air... to carry a few flakes/flurries in the forecast for Monday afternoon...or possibly a sprinkle...but that's it.  With clearing skies Monday night and that large high moving in...count on the coldest night of the season so far with teens in the burbs...and low 20s inside the 270/255 loop.  Don't look for much of a temperature recovery on Tuesday as the core of the cold moves overhead.

The next flip comes Wednesday when all models are indicating some impressive warming ahead of the next cold front.  After what happened today, I surged my highs WAAAAY above guidance and went with 65 for the high on Wednesday as all indications are this warm-up will be stronger than the one today was forecast to be.  The models have backed off some on the extent of the cold air behind this midweek front... but I'm not quite ready to go full tilt in that direction.  I went ahead and chilled us back to near 40 on Thursday...with another rebound in temps by the end of the week.

By the weekend, another strong Pacific system will cruise into the northern rockies...this looks strangly similiar to the one that rolled through here about a week ago.  It has the same angle of attack...coming from the west northwest...and looks like it gets hung up over us for a little bit as it tries to close off and then pivot to the east.  It will be an interesting system to watch...but looks pretty moisture starved at the moment.

*** So Long Indian Summer ***

*** Early Week Storm ***

*** Another Late Week Cold Surge ***

The warm Indian Summer temps are a distant memory following a weekend that looked and felt a lot more like November...if not December.  It's been just plain cold the past 48 hours. 

The cold air flow we experienced all weekend will begin to ease Monday.  That's a good thing or we would be looking at a very early season snowfall here.  I don't see that happening.  Instead, I'm still thinking this system is mostly a rain-maker.  And not just here in St. Louis...most of MO and IL will see a cold rain as the southerly flow overwhelms the surface cold air.  In order for that cold air to remain locked in place and generate possible snow...we would have to have a stronger, cold high pressure building south out of Canada...that's not in the cards this time around...so it's a cold rain!

The main push of rain will come in a fairly quick burst Monday night with the warm/moist advection ahead of the storm.  As that kicks east...lots of low clouds and light rain/drizzle will hang around through at least Wednesday.

After a brief moderation in temps and maybe a little sunshine Thursday into Friday...another strong cold front will plow through in time for next weekend.  This pattern looks like it may support our first good shot at some rain/snow showers mixed Saturday into Sunday.  But lots of time to watch that potential.

*** Spell of Indian Summer through Midweek ***

*** Severe Weather Potential Wednesday Night into Thursday ***

*** More Typical November Temps by Late Week ***

An interesting week of weather lies ahead...one that I think gives a strong glimpse of what to expect for through early to mid December.  The more I look at the developing patterns the more I think we will be running above to much above normal around here through early to mid December.  I also believe we may see several rounds of potent late season severe weather between now and Christmas.  More on my thoughts for the winter next week.

For now, its all about Indian Summer to start with temperatures well into the 70s through Wednesday.  Great voting weather so no excuses not to let your voice be heard!

Now...the system for Wednesday into Thursday is complex (suprise!)   The latest models are slowing this thing down some as additional energy digs into the base of the trough.  It would not suprise me at all to see it slow down another 6 to 8 hours.  This is important because it would allow for two key ingredients for severe weather to become better established.  Those are daytime heating Thursday...and longer time for moisture to increase behind the secondary warm front spreading north out of the southern plains.  This warm front and it's intersection with the cold front and dryline accelerating in from the west will provide the surface focus for thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.  Shear looks favorable...but instability is lacking in the models right now this far north.  Upper level dynamics are there with a nicely diffluent flow showing up from 500mb up through 300mb...overspreading the warm sector from the west.  It is quite possible that a slowing of the system would increase the moisture and hence the instability.  Right now the best timing for storms will be from late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon...depending on how fast this system kicks out.

As the trailing cold front swings through Thursday look for strong and gusty winds to follow.  However, the "true cold" will lag the front by several hours and will most likely not arrive until early Friday morning.  Look for windy and cool ... more typical November weather... into next weekend.

The folks at "A Soldiers Wish List" are holding a special Christmas drive this weekend at Mattingly's Sports Bar and Grill in St. Louis.  If the weather holds out, you may just catch me down there having dinner in between newscasts!

*** Two Cold Fronts this Week ***

*** Major Fall Storm on the Way ***

Well here we go.  A new week and finally something to sink my teeth into.  I haven't really had much weather to look at since my return from the desert but that is about to change.  The first of the fall season cut-off lows is forecast to develop over the central plains by midweek.  A couple of things to keep in mind...these usually move slower than the models indicate...and they are notorious for "suprise" early season wet snows.  Now, I'm not seeing any flakes in our future but it certainly is possible for our friends in KS and far western or northwestern MO.  I am pretty certain this system will end up bringing very chilly temperatures with intervals of rain...some isolated thunder and gusty winds starting Wednesday and lasting into the weekend.

The first cold front of the week arrives Monday with little weather.  It will bring clouds but not much else.  Temperatures will run 4-8 degrees cooler Tuesday behind the front.

By Wednesday, the tremendous energy dumping into the plains will cut-off and the ball of low pressure will begin to spin.  But, as you look at the jet stream map above you'll notice there is nothing much to help kick it along ... no follow up systems in Rocky Mountains or on the west coast.  So, this thing looks like it will be hanging out over the Midwest for a few days.  Also, it's interesting to note somewhat of a tropical connection trying to get established out of the GOM.  Another factor that will make timing the rain difficult will be the large and very complex / wrapped up dry slot that will develop.  This will keep bands of rain spining in and out of the area for most of the back 1/2 of the week.  And you can't forget about thudnerstorms with small hail in some unusal places.  With such a strong upper level system and such cool air aloft, I wouldn't be suprised to see some small hail out of  small thunderstorms near the center.

So as you can see...lots to look at this week...with lots of possibilities.  This sure beats the Shamal and haboobs I was dealing with in the desert!

*** Warm Weather Starts the Week ***

*** Slow Low to Bring Rain and Storms ***

*** Watching Cold Build ***

*** Time Change is November 2nd This Year ***

A typical transitional week coming up for the Midwest.  Right off the bat we have a taste of summer with a warm southerly flow sending temps back into the 80s on Monday.  But the warm air will not last.  A weather system is splitting as it slowly heads towards the Mississippi River.  The northern low will head into Canada while the southern energy will get stuck.  I think the models are trying to progress this southern energy too quickly through the upper level ridge anchored over the Great Lakes.  As a result, I expect unsettled conditions to move in Tuesday and continue into Wednesday night...and perhaps linger into Thursday.  This energy/low will be responsible for waves of showers and a few thunderstorms.  The dynamics don't look as favorable at this point as they did a few days ago so severe storms...while not out of the question... don't look like a big factor at this point.   Temperatures with the clouds will get cooler by day....only in the low 70s at best Tuesdsay and Wednesday.  As the system pulls away Thursday into Friday, there is little to no cold air...in fact...it's just more mild Pacific air...so I expect it to warm up nicely late in the week once the clouds finally do break.

Then attention turns to the weekend and early next week when signals are starting to point to a rather potent fall/winter like system taking shape in the Rockies and Plains.  This will eventually bring more rain and much colder temperatures our way...but timing and specifics this far out are impossible to gage.  Needless to say, early next week will feature a transition to colder fall temperatures.

One final note... I have received MANY emails and phone calls about the time change this fall.  We set our clocks back (fall back) on November 2nd.

After almost 5 months of deployment and a couple of weeks of down town to rest, it's time to start getting back into the swing of things here at Fox 2.  Wow, have things changed...station gets sold and now we are merging operations with KPLR.  There will be no shortage of interesting times ahead for us here at Fox 2...that is for sure.

I need to pass along once again to everyone my  most sincere and heart-felt thanks for your thoughts, prayers and just overall well wishes while I was gone.  I especially need to thank my co-workers who picked up the slack....Mark, Angella, Dave and Glenn all did a great job filling the void.  But now I'm back and the it's time to shift back into weather mode.

Looking at the week ahead, the pattern is fairly quiet.  While there will be a dip in the jet this week, the main push with this will stay up to the north keeping any major pushes of cool air away.  This dip is enough to dislodge the pesky upper low that kept our skies mixed up with clouds over the weekend and even produced a few spotty thunderstorms.

With that low out of the picture clouds will be fewer and farther between.  The upper flow might look like one that would argue for a large warm-up...but the surface winds don't indicate it.  In fact, the models are showing little wind on Monday...and only light winds the next couple of days with a ridge of high pressure to our east being the main player.  This type of scenerio will offer only modest warming... lower to mid 80s at most...with stronger warming out west of western MO where the south/southwesterfly flow will become well established.

Don't take your eyes off the tropics... it looks like a new tropical storm is on the way as conditions are at least somewhat favorable for a disturbance near Puerrto Rico to get organized in the next day or so.  This will be a watcher for the east coast ... as current trends block the Gulf of Mexico.

Thanks again to everyone...let the discussions begin!

-Chris

Well here we are...  August 11th and the redeployment date is getting closer.  I'm still more than a month away but its a good feeling to see the calendar shrinking.  I have to give a HUGE thank you to all of you who have contributed to the "Flip Flop or Drop" effort headed up by Mark Christopher and Victoria Babu over at KTRS.  Without the support and hard work  of The Big 550 and the gang at "The Mark Christopher Show" (noon-3pm M-F) this could never have happened.  I've heard through the grapevine there may be as many as 5000 pairs of flip flops!  Thats more than 10x as many as I had hoped for.  Lets pray that many of them go un-used because that will mean fewer and fewer are getting wounded.

Big news for me today may turn out to be the highlight of my deployment.  General Patraeus made a brief stop here today and I had the great privelege of being asked to brief him up on weather conditions throughout the region.  It was relatively short, but the public affairs folks did manage to snap a few pictures. It was an awesome experience.

Tomorrow, we begin shooting "A Day in the Desert"  A camera crew will be following me along through the course of my day to gather video for a story that will air on Fox 2 sometime in the future detailing what my average day has been like here at my deployed locaiton.  I'm not sure when it will air...but most likely before I return in late September.  I have had many requests to see more about what I do here so you guys should find it interesting.  It should be pointed out that this will be only the second time EVER that cameras have been allowed into this highly classified facility and you'll only see it on Fox 2!

Well, its time to head out for a little relaxation time and a couple of games of dominos with the gang.  Good luck to everyone back in St. Louis and go Cards! 

-Capt Higgins

Hello once again from the desert.  I'm now past my 1/2 way point and it feels great knowing there are fewer days ahead than are behind.  But there is still a lot of work to be done.  The weather here has taken another turn.  Now it's not just incredibly hot, but the winds have turned off the nearby water and now we settle into the mid/late summer pattern of steam.  The overnight low last night was 84 with a dew point of 84.  Some people pay to have that kind of steambath...we get to enjoy it for free!

Now, on to good news. For those of you who have been gathering your men's flip flops I now have a drop off point.  Mark Christopher...host of "The Mark Christopher Show" on The BIG 550 KTRS... (M-F Noon-3pm) has brought the folks at KTRS into the mix.  They will be serving as the main drop off location.  I'm also working with my good friends at the Mail Depot in O'Fallon, MO to arrange for shipping.

If you're just hearing about the flip flops...here's the deal.  When our guys are wounded they are rushed directly to the closest medical care.  They often are stripped down....and have no clothing.  I was talking with some of the medical folks here a couple of weeks ago to see if there was anything they could use...and they suggested flip flops.  Especially men's flip flops.  This gives them something to wear (and then pitch) while they are at the receiving treatment.  They also suggested small lap blankets for them to cover up with on the plane when they get transported from theatre hospital to larger european medical facilities.

To help drum up support for this drive I will be going on Mark's show either later today (Tuesday) or Wednesday.  Listen in to get more details.  As always thank you for your support! 

-Chris

Hello gang....sorry this is a day late...but unfortunately the war doesn't take time off for holidays.  It was great to have the chance to spend sometime over the phone with John and Randi Friday morning.  From the comments I ran across in my last blog, it sounds like many of you heard the interview.  I hope I didn't sound too down or tired...but it has been a long stretch and the weather has been a real challenge.  And when it gets challenging, everyone who is impacted (which is everyone) gets a little edgy. 

A quick thank you to everyone who posted in the last few days with well wishes for this Independece Day.  You may remember that I got a little worked up last summer about "Independence" vs. "4th of July".  I still feel strongly about that, but I've mellowed in my time here...probably because of fatigue..lol...and it doesn't bother as much...so long as we all remember that the true day is about more than the number "4".  They had a nice retreat ceremony to retire the colors (flag) last night...followed by your typical stateside bar-b-que.  And yes, we had our limited adult beverage service to top it all off.  So, despite being 1/2 a world away we had a nice celebration here.  Only thing that was missing were the fireworks...but those are generally not a good idea in these parts...could be mis-interpretted if you know what I mean.

To fill the time I have picked up a new game.  Just a new game to me anyway...not to many.  Apparently dominos has been a huge hit with military men and women for years...especially the army.  Up until about two weeks ago I had never played before.  Now I play everynight.  It passes the time and can be a lot of fun.  It's even a good thinking game to bring home and play with my son when I come back...so it's a win win situation.

If you listened to my interview, you heard me throw out another call for help.  I was talking with some of the medical folks the other day and I asked if there was anything they needed.  As it turns out, they need flip flops...mainly for men.  When the wounded are brought in from the field they are pretty much stripped down to the bare minimum and then moved on to wherever they need to go for care.  That means they have no clothing of any sort with them!  Flip flops and boxers/ briefs are in high demand and relatively low supply.  They also could use small lap blankets which are used to help keep patients warm while they are med-evaced to bigger hospitals.  I know that in the group of people who follow this blog we can hit a homerun with this.  They don't have the capacity for a ton of stuff...but maybe a couple hundred flip flops, undgergarments and blankets???  Do you guys think we can pull this off?  I haven't had time to contact anyone about acting as a collection point.  But I bet my good friend at the Kirkwood American Legion could come up with something (good to hear from you by the way!)

Well, my time is up for now...I need to run.  I will post back in here in a day or two to see what you guys come up with.  Thanks again for your prayers and support.  I'm 1/2 way home now and will back in September!

-Chris

Hello once again from the middle of nowhere!

First and foremost I have to extend some huge thank yous to a couple of groups of very special people.  A very very very heart felt thank you to my fellow Knights of Columbus at Ascension parish in Chesterfield.  They pulled together a HUGE care package (actually packages) full of lots of good stuff that arrived late last week.  Only a few days later, I received a second HUGE care package from my awesome co-workers and friends at Fox 2.  I'm now well stocked and should have enough goodies to get me through the rest of the summer. 

The care packages couldn't have come at a better time for me.  I'm now almost six weeks into my deployment with about 3 more months to go.  The reality of being away from my home and family for that long keeps sneaking up on me at the weirdest times.  Instead of getting easier with each day it seems to get more difficult.  I can't even begin to imagine the mental and physical stress our troops went through back during earlier wars...when there were few phones, no computers, no internet or digital cameras.  I get to talk to my wife and family at least 1x a week..sometimes more.  In previous wars they were lucky to get to talk once a month... or longer.  I've actually taken to writing letters home because sometimes it just seems more private and personal.  Besides, who doesn't like to get a letter in the mail, right?

I haven't been able to get a status report on our adopt a soldier program through A SOLDIERS WISH LIST.  But from the sounds of things we are at least making a dent.  Coming up sometime in the next week or two I will be doing a live phone interview with Mark Christopher at KTRS.  I'll use that opportunity to once again put out the call for folks to adopt soldiers.  I've been so blessed by so many friends...I just want to make sure others who are in far worse conditions receive the same.

The weather here during the past week has been horrible.  The worst wind, dust, sand,e tc. storm of my time here so far.  One side effect is that this "Shamal" pattern as it's called, does bring down the temperatures.  It has only been in the 103 to 107 range the past few days which has felt amazingly cool.

BRTN.. congrats on the funnel cloud spotting.  Gotta be careful at night though...especially in MO and IL.  Roads don't exactly go straight...especially in MO and it can be dangerous at best.  I do wish I was there...so save some of the storms for when I get back.  I haven't seen a cloud in nearly 5 weeks...not one! 

The family is doing well... but as I have always said... deployment is more difficult on the family you leave at home.  My wife has been doing an awesome job of keeping everything in good shape while I've been gone.  I think she needs a care package more than I do LOL.  Maybe I can get her a day at the spa?  Any ideas from former military?  What did your spouses like most to get while you were gone?

Well...time is slowly crawling by and its time for me to get back to work.  Best wishes to all...

-Chris