Weather or Not

 Wow...nice warm-up on Sunday eh?  Another good example of the power of warm air advection ahead of a northwest flow / Clipper type cold front!  It's a pattern we will get to see again by mid week too.

Here's the deal folks...you better fasten your seatbelts because the temperature fluctuations the next 6 to 10 days are going to be pretty amazing.  We start the week with another shot of cold on Monday into Tuesday.  This looks like the coldest air of the season based on the strength of the high and its point of origin.  Temps right now up in Canada are in the single digits above and below zero...and that's where our air is coming from to start the week.  As the colder air arrives on Monday, the models are showing very limited moisture...except in a small sliver from about 6,000 feet down during the day on Monday.  There's enough forcing in that moist layer...along with some low level instability in the cold air... to carry a few flakes/flurries in the forecast for Monday afternoon...or possibly a sprinkle...but that's it.  With clearing skies Monday night and that large high moving in...count on the coldest night of the season so far with teens in the burbs...and low 20s inside the 270/255 loop.  Don't look for much of a temperature recovery on Tuesday as the core of the cold moves overhead.

The next flip comes Wednesday when all models are indicating some impressive warming ahead of the next cold front.  After what happened today, I surged my highs WAAAAY above guidance and went with 65 for the high on Wednesday as all indications are this warm-up will be stronger than the one today was forecast to be.  The models have backed off some on the extent of the cold air behind this midweek front... but I'm not quite ready to go full tilt in that direction.  I went ahead and chilled us back to near 40 on Thursday...with another rebound in temps by the end of the week.

By the weekend, another strong Pacific system will cruise into the northern rockies...this looks strangly similiar to the one that rolled through here about a week ago.  It has the same angle of attack...coming from the west northwest...and looks like it gets hung up over us for a little bit as it tries to close off and then pivot to the east.  It will be an interesting system to watch...but looks pretty moisture starved at the moment.

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