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by ChrisHiggins from FOX 2

Last Post 10 days, 4 hours Ago


Chris's Corner - Nov 9th
Nov 9, 2008 | 10:50 PM
Category: Weather
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*** So Long Indian Summer ***

*** Early Week Storm ***

*** Another Late Week Cold Surge ***

The warm Indian Summer temps are a distant memory following a weekend that looked and felt a lot more like November...if not December.  It's been just plain cold the past 48 hours. 

The cold air flow we experienced all weekend will begin to ease Monday.  That's a good thing or we would be looking at a very early season snowfall here.  I don't see that happening.  Instead, I'm still thinking this system is mostly a rain-maker.  And not just here in St. Louis...most of MO and IL will see a cold rain as the southerly flow overwhelms the surface cold air.  In order for that cold air to remain locked in place and generate possible snow...we would have to have a stronger, cold high pressure building south out of Canada...that's not in the cards this time around...so it's a cold rain!

The main push of rain will come in a fairly quick burst Monday night with the warm/moist advection ahead of the storm.  As that kicks east...lots of low clouds and light rain/drizzle will hang around through at least Wednesday.

After a brief moderation in temps and maybe a little sunshine Thursday into Friday...another strong cold front will plow through in time for next weekend.  This pattern looks like it may support our first good shot at some rain/snow showers mixed Saturday into Sunday.  But lots of time to watch that potential.

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Member Comments Total Comments: 412
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snowstorm92 read my blog view my photos
Nov 9, 2008 | 11:13 PM

Sounds good!
snowstorm92 read my blog view my photos
Nov 9, 2008 | 11:13 PM

Sounds good!
dana_bl1 read my blog
Nov 9, 2008 | 11:26 PM

Chris, Do you think we will have a white Thanksgiving or white Christmas. I know it is still early but can you just guess please. When will you have your winter forcast out.
classicsportsgrading read my blog view my photos
Nov 9, 2008 | 11:31 PM

Well hello again you all, Rob here again from South County/Affton. I do post in other blogs thru out the year, however I always look forward to this time of year here in St. Louis, the holidays coming & that oh so interesting winter weather, and love the snow.

In reading a few posts from last week and Chris's blog now, already things look ineteresting.

Apparently, potential cold for next weekend, and I believe I read in last week's Chris's Corner, that a few of you see something happening snow wise as far out as the week before or Thanksgiving week??

Whats the status!

Rob
Classic!
foxfan1 read my blog
Nov 10, 2008 | 12:49 AM

hi guys, I've been out of the loop lately with a family friend dieing and school and getting the house refinanced (YES you can actually get a home loan these days), well luckily most of that is over with so I hope to be able to get back into the weather chat... So I got a few questions here from looking at this pattern, when you say cold rain, your talking at least 35 or above right Chris, Don't want ANY potential ice threats from this.

and looking SUPER long range here, but yes I am seeing some early signs of possible activity of the white kind come thanksgiving time, with it being a week later than usual, that's more expected than in other thanksgiving years... but it's still a long way out for sure.
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 1:16 AM

Definitely no ice threat foxfan, the low-level flow is one of warm air advection this time around - you typically need low-level CAA to have freezing rain. It's just going to be a bit too warm this time around. It does look like a cold, miserable rain is in the cards. The rain should move in after midnight tomorrow, and last through rush hour on Tuesday. Sometime during the day on Tuesday, the heavier rain should let up, but clouds and showers/drizzle definitely look to linger into Wednesday. I'm still thinking .25"-.75" should cover totals.

Long term is looking colder all the time. GFS is showing a strong cold front late in the week, and that will pull down some more cold air just in time for the weekend(where have we seen this before?). Chris gave a hint of flakes this evening on air, and I'd agree w/ him, it is very well possible. At this point, it doesn't look like anything beyond show showers on the backside of the system, but let's keep the idea of a secondary wave and widespread snow on the back burner. After that, a short-lived warm up will likely take place, before another system shows up somewhere around the 20th. It definitely seems like the models are liking a cold second half of the month. The very warm temperatures during the first 6 days of the month will keep the first half above average, and could keep the overall month warmer than I expected, but still below average.
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 8:33 AM

Hey all... I know this is way way down the line but over at accuwx the 15 day forecast for my zip (62225 - Scott AFB) on the 15th day (24 NOV) it shows a high of 38 and a low of 0, yes that is a zero. If that verifies.... whoa!!!
Peagcu read my blog
Nov 10, 2008 | 10:42 AM

That would be a record low for sure.
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 11:42 AM

Thye fixed it now... high is 45 and low is 33. I was a little dumbfounded by that. Must have been "now casting" from the 00Z models.
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 4:16 PM

Rough storms down in TX today...
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 5:07 PM

Hey the NWS LSX offic is saying that there may be a brief onset of sleet tonight as the precip gets here... no accumes are expeted...
stl_fisherman
Nov 10, 2008 | 5:28 PM

We could see a brief period of sleet as the precipitation begins later this evening/overnight.
snowman99 read my blog
Nov 10, 2008 | 6:06 PM

I was wondering about that fisherman, be good to hear a ping or 2 of sleet later. Hope to hear from you frequently this winter with your input on some winter storms. You guys do a great job.
stl_fisherman
Nov 10, 2008 | 6:33 PM

Certainly a better chance for a little sleet north and east of the immediate St. Louis Metro...
ChrisHiggins read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 7:03 PM

Hey Fish... good to see you back. Yeah... I was starting to think about myself. Fortunately ground temps are still warm and the air temp should stay above freezing.

On that note... for the regulars who are starting to come out of summer hibernation... please report the onset of precip if you have a chance along with precip type. I'm sure the guys at the NWS would like to see that info.
ChrisHiggins read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 7:07 PM

And by the way... it looks like I'm off to rough start with the overall outlook through early December. I was expecting the basic... more progressive pattern that kept us relatively mild to continue. The new trends certainly argue against that. I guess I'll stay focused on the short range for the time being ... that's been working pretty well for me :)
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 7:32 PM

Hey Chris, and fish... I will report when we here at SCOTT AFB start getting precip... I would guess that it will start as rain and then mix with sleet from time to time...
Weatherles read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 7:39 PM

Hey Chris, hows it going? We missed you other day when we came to the studio on a tour with my daughters girl scout troop. We were sure hoping you were there. Anyway I kinda glad you might be off on your forecast for the start of the winter season. I think we need a good hard winter for a change. Glad to see you back safe, and congrats on the award the other day for the Vets.
classicsportsgrading read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 7:48 PM

Chris, Rob here /Classic. As mentioned above I am coming out of hibernation lol~

Typically I know this for a fact from seasons past & i think you or Dave even mentioned this at the start of last winter that the average first measurable snow in STL is Dec 6. I recall the last few years it has snowed on or around Dec 6.

With that said it seems that the trend and feeling in this early chat from most, is that the first measurabale snow indeed could be earlier.

Would that be a small possible conclusion at this point, with Thanksgving approaching?

~~
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 10, 2008 | 8:05 PM

stlfisherman... why does sleet warrant a hazardous weather outlook bulletin? Is it because it could be our first winter type precip? Just curious... thanks for what you do!!
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ChrisHiggins

I am the weekend weather guy at Fox 2 and also a weather officer with the US Air Force Reserves. I recently returned back from deployment to the desert of the Middle East where I supported Operation Iraqi Freedom, Operation Enduring Freedom and Joint Task Force Horn of Africa.

Member Since: 9/13/2006


 

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