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by ChrisHiggins from FOX 2

Last Post 10 days, 4 hours Ago


Chris's Corner - 02 November
Nov 2, 2008 | 3:26 PM
Category: Weather
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*** Spell of Indian Summer through Midweek ***

*** Severe Weather Potential Wednesday Night into Thursday ***

*** More Typical November Temps by Late Week ***

An interesting week of weather lies ahead...one that I think gives a strong glimpse of what to expect for through early to mid December.  The more I look at the developing patterns the more I think we will be running above to much above normal around here through early to mid December.  I also believe we may see several rounds of potent late season severe weather between now and Christmas.  More on my thoughts for the winter next week.

For now, its all about Indian Summer to start with temperatures well into the 70s through Wednesday.  Great voting weather so no excuses not to let your voice be heard!

Now...the system for Wednesday into Thursday is complex (suprise!)   The latest models are slowing this thing down some as additional energy digs into the base of the trough.  It would not suprise me at all to see it slow down another 6 to 8 hours.  This is important because it would allow for two key ingredients for severe weather to become better established.  Those are daytime heating Thursday...and longer time for moisture to increase behind the secondary warm front spreading north out of the southern plains.  This warm front and it's intersection with the cold front and dryline accelerating in from the west will provide the surface focus for thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.  Shear looks favorable...but instability is lacking in the models right now this far north.  Upper level dynamics are there with a nicely diffluent flow showing up from 500mb up through 300mb...overspreading the warm sector from the west.  It is quite possible that a slowing of the system would increase the moisture and hence the instability.  Right now the best timing for storms will be from late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon...depending on how fast this system kicks out.

As the trailing cold front swings through Thursday look for strong and gusty winds to follow.  However, the "true cold" will lag the front by several hours and will most likely not arrive until early Friday morning.  Look for windy and cool ... more typical November weather... into next weekend.

 

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Member Comments Total Comments: 127
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WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 4:30 PM

Wow... looks like we are in for some late season (second season) severe weather this week... I cant wait! What a great weekend this has turned out to be!!!! I got a lot of last minute yard things knocked off the honey-do list... thanks to who evere ordered the great weather!!!!
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 4:31 PM

ever*
weatherfan17
Nov 2, 2008 | 4:47 PM

chris what do you mean by we will be running near norman to much above normal??? is that temperatures or precipation?? also do you see our first flakes in the horizon?? thanks!!
weatherfan17
Nov 2, 2008 | 4:47 PM

normal*
ChrisHiggins read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 5:55 PM

Temperatures above normal... precip will be near or slightly below for November.

No flakes on the horizon at this point.
snowstorm92 read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 6:07 PM

wait, so december is going to be warm and thunderstormy???
snowstorm92 read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 6:11 PM

i thought december was going to be cold and even snowy?
ChrisHiggins read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 7:45 PM

This is the first glimpse into my winter outlook that I've given...so those would not have been my words.

Again...to reiterate what I wrote up top...I'm seeing above normal temps and near or slightly below normal precip into early or mid December...but not the entire month.
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 7:51 PM

Chris, this is a rare instance where I don't agree w/ you - I'm not seeing much that would indicate warmer than average temperatures after mid-month. Are your ideas an extrapolation of the current pattern trends? Interesting.

This system later next week should be one to really keep an eye on. With the system trending slower, the low-level ridge to the North of the Gulf, which will block moisture return, will have more time to break down. The models are forecasting a pretty strong LLJ, so I think dewpoints and instability parameters are underdone currently. I like the location of your severe area on the chart Chris, this seems to have the Arklatex in it's bullseye, but I think we could easily get into the action too. I don't think this will be a huge outbreak, and early indications are that storm mode will favor squall lines, but it will likely be the first significant fall severe outbreak. Tornadoes are certainly possible considering the strong wind fields, but low instability and high LCLs could be an issue if dewpoints don't end up higher than currently progged. Too early to get wrapped up in details at this point though.
snowstorm92 read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 8:10 PM

ill just wait and see
BRTNWXMAN read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 8:14 PM

That's about all any of us can do :) Long range forecasting is basically a scientific crap shoot. I'm putting my odds on colder weather come mid-month and beyond. Chris is putting his odds against that. Let's see how the dice roll!
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 2, 2008 | 8:16 PM

ditto snowstorm92... I am standing by as well. I do like the areas that Chris has outlined as well and the NWS' SPC has issued a day 5 outlook that involves us, moreover the types look to be squally with embedded super cells, hail and wind will be the threats.
weatherfan17
Nov 2, 2008 | 9:40 PM

so i guess it wont snow now until mid dec??
weathernut4u2
Nov 3, 2008 | 12:23 AM

I agree with brtn. From the data Ive seen,I would conclude it does look much colder after mid month. Maybe a brief warm up or two between systems,but nothing long term or record breaking. It would be something if this december will turn out to be like december of 1989.Talk about cold,but if the high pressure systems were that strong all of the moisture would be supressed well south.Which of course we dont want that either. We need to be on the southern edge of the arctic air,but enough into the cold air that the warm air wont beat it all back north-northwestward with each storm. We want cold air solidly entrenched with an active jet running just to our south.Keeping those low pressure systems in arkansas and tennesee,close enough to throw all of the rich moisture back into the cold air. Also keep the strongest WAA away as we dont want ice....lol...we always seem to screwed over by the dreaded WAA.Hopefully not this year though.
Beaker read my blog view my photos
Nov 3, 2008 | 9:24 AM

It looks like the truly cold air in the models are having trouble penetrating the mid MS Valley. I would look for the cold air to become more bottled up to our N and W and the St. Louis area is the beneficiary of a predominantly SW flow. The pattern seems to support what Chris is saying with several chances for thunderstorms and generally above normal temps. That is not to say we won't see snow. But keep in mind that I've noticed long range models seem to be overly bullish on pulling the cold air this far south at this time of the year. Any cold waves will be quickly replaced by above normal temps with no lock in sight.
ChrisHiggins read my blog view my photos
Nov 3, 2008 | 2:09 PM

To be clear... I'm not saying there wont be a couple of days of cool/cold air behind these systems...but the persistance of the upper level ridging extending from the ohio valley down into the northern gulf....along with a cut-off low off the southeast coast (a pattern that has already repeated several times already) argue for the idea that the early cool season pattern has become established. In my experience, this pattern holds through November into at least early December..if not a little longer. I see longer periods of southwest flow as beaker mentioned followed by thunderstorms as the fronts pass...followed by several more typical november days. But, when its all said and done, the month will average above to much above normal temperature-wise. Because the precip will be largely thunderstorm related...it is possible some spots could get significantly higher amounts. On average, I would say the month will end up near normal for rainfall...with little if any snowfall through November.
Mommy2 read my blog view my photos
Nov 3, 2008 | 3:01 PM

I do not like to hear that outlook for cold & snow. I am sooo over ready for some snow and now we are going to have to wait till mid december or later, THAT SUCKS.
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 3, 2008 | 3:15 PM

Will you guys relax already... Last year we were all ready for the drought to be over. We all argued insesantly (SP?) about how we would be luck to see any snow at all. Well for those of you who have a shor term memory, we did get snow, DEC 15th to be exact. If we dont see any this NOV, who cares?!?!?!?!? Lets all take a deep breath, start thinking with our common sense hats on, and listine to the experts. I would love to see some snow... I don really care when it falls, NOV, DEC, JAN, FEB or MAR, I do not care. Please continue to make your points, put out your predictions and read the rest of ours. Just dont start being disrespectful when someone says that you have to wait to see snow.

My prediction, late NOV for our first flakes and Mid DEC for our first 4 inches.
OFF MY BOX NOW!
snowstorm92 read my blog view my photos
Nov 3, 2008 | 4:34 PM

wait, or we talking about november or december being stormy and above normal temp and rain wise?
WEAXWATCHER read my blog view my photos
Nov 3, 2008 | 4:37 PM

November snowstorm92
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ChrisHiggins

I am the weekend weather guy at Fox 2 and also a weather officer with the US Air Force Reserves. I recently returned back from deployment to the desert of the Middle East where I supported Operation Iraqi Freedom, Operation Enduring Freedom and Joint Task Force Horn of Africa.

Member Since: 9/13/2006


 

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