Weather or Not

*** A WEEK OF PURE SPRING WEATHER

*** BECOMING STORMY AT TIMES

*** ONE MORE WEEKED

Well, 2008 has certainly has dished up just about everything so far....cold, big snows, record rainfall, record flooding, more cold, easter snow....and then the earthquake.  What more could a weather guy want?  How about some plain ole' spring weather????  Well, mother nature is ready to come through for us this week.  This is a pure spring week.  It will be warm...in the 70s... all week long.  I may be a bit too warm with 82 for Monday, but the I-70 cooridor...just north of the Ozarks... often gets a few degrees warmer than the models would otherwise indicate...and I'm banking on that for Monday.  If I'm off, nobody will complain about upper 70s I don't think so it's a win-win situation.

The warm flow from the south becomes increasingly more humid late Monday into the middle of the week.  At the same time, a rather strong and deep trough digs into the western US.  This will initially send a cold front our way on Tuesday...bringing with it a chance for thunderstorms.  I know the talk at SPC is that the main upper dynamics will be to our northwest...but I think the degree of instability and modest shear should be enough to produce at least some potential of winds and hail.  The main mode will be multicellular...with some potential early on for brief supercell structures... but a quick transition to more multicellular structures should take control.

Now, the biggest question for the forecast for me is with Wednesday.  I'm not at all convinced that Wednesday will be dry.  That is because I'm not at all convinced that the surface cold front/outflows will drive the effective boundary south of our area.  When you look at the upper level ridging and flow... it certainly isn't very conducive to a southward pushing front.  I would not be at all suprised to see the front hang up over the Ozarks between I-44 and I-70 on Wednesday... with the front serving as a firing zone for new development...especially as the low level jet begins to crank back up.  If it doesn't happen on Wednesday... it certainly will on Thursday and Friday. 

Finally, many have been asking when I am leaving on my deployment.  For security reasons, I can't tell you exactly when.  I can tell you that my last day on the air here at Fox 2 will be next Sunday... and that I will not return to the air waves until early fall.  While I'm gone, I'll try and post from time to time in here... but you guys will mostly be on your own this spring and summer.  If I'm allowed, I will be posting some pictures from time to time... and maybe even video... from my deployed location.  No guarantees though.

Have a good week!