Charlie_Brennan's Blog

Colorado drew visits from both Sen. John Kerry and President George W. Bush in 2004, but the two were hardly tripping over one another in coming and going from the Centennial State, as their successors are, this time around.

Colorado matters in 2008 as it has rarely -- if ever -- mattered before in presidential electoral politics, as witnessed by Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's visit Monday, and the Monday-Tuesday stop-over by Sen. Barack Obama. Even before they stopped in to see us - yet again - it had been widely reported that Colorado was seen as a key battleground state in this year's presidential sweepstakes.

But, pigs flying and the moon turning to green cheese, some are now saying Colorado could be - apologies to President Bush - THE decider, in 2008.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the widely respected and bipartisan Rothenberg Political Report, is updating his previous observation that voters in Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and Michigan will determine the winner of the McCain-Obama battle. This week, he revised his analysis to say: "I've become convinced that my initial list of five states can probably be boiled down to just one - one state that is most likely to determine who will be the next occupant of the White House. And that state is Colorado."

He goes on to say that if McCain carries Colorado in November, he would expect McCain to hold on to all of President George W. Bush's states from 2000, minus New Hampshire. If Obama, in turn, kept all the states Al Gore won in 2000, plus New Hampshire, McCain would win the election 274 electoral votes to 264 for Obama.

Colorado, he notes, has voted Republican for president in nine of the past 10 presidential elections - 1992 with Bill Clinton the victor is the exception - and that President George W. Bush won it twice, including by 5 points in 2004.

Rothenberg explained his thinking further in an interview Friday.

"It looks at this point, if the election is close, and most of the Republican states in 2000 and 2004 will go for John McCain, most of the Democratic states in 2000 and 2004 will go for Barack Obama, we're only talking about a handful of states that appear to be extremely competitive, right on the edge for both candidates," said Rothenberg.

"The polls show it, the insiders believe it, and if you look at the recent electoral behavior of Colorado, it's traditionally Republican and moving Democratic. It just has the kinds of swing voters, the upscale white voters, who have been attracted to Barack Obama. I think the state's going to be very close."

He added, "Right now, it looks like they're only a half-dozen states that are really pure toss-ups. And, if you assign the ones that are likely to go Republican and likely to go Democratic, when you get through them all, you get 49 states that are assignable; the one that's hardest to push either toward McCain or to Obama is Colorado."

Rothenberg made note that Colorado's history of trending red has lately tilted toward blue with Democratic control of the legislature, a majority in its Congressional delegation, and Gov. Bill Ritter's election in 2006.

"You have the state's long-term, fundamental Republican bent, and you overlay that with its recent Democratic voting pattern, and I think you get the surprising result that Colorado is the 'swingiest' of all the swing states, for this presidential election."

Rothenberg is not alone in having elevated Colorado from status of "a" key state to "the" key state.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said the same thing in a conference call Thursday, highlighting a trio of potentially critical western states - Colorado, Nevada and Montana, but placing Colorado at the top in terms its potential decisiveness.

Denver-based political analyst Eric Sondermann said Rothenberg was worth heeding on the subject, noting that "He is regarded as one of the two or three non- partisan, non-aligned, very credible substantive political analysts on the national scene."

"Could Colorado be the decisive, pivotal state, not just a swing state but the one that it all pivots on? Absolutely, it could," said Sondermann. "Will that happen? We'll still have to see. It relates to what goes on here, and it also relates to how other states develop, and whether they go into one camp or another, or stay right at the margins."

Sondermann noted, "This is completely uncharted waters for Colorado. We've been a state in play, periodically -- not all that often but periodically. We've been a state in play, but it's a big difference, a big difference, from being a state in play, being contested and being potentially the state that decides it all."

It's certainly exciting - regardless of one's political affiliation or who one might be pulling for Nov. 4, to think that the nation could be talking about Colorado as the state that determined the 44th President of the United States.

Unless, of course you're already tired of the politcal ads - negative and otherwise.

Because, with still more than six weeks to go, you ain't seen nothing, yet.