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by Charles_Jaco from St. Louis

Last Post 134 days, 16 hours Ago


Why Obama Could Easily Lose
Aug 20, 2008 | 5:14 PM
Category: Political
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The 2004 presidential election was not about John Kerry at all. It was, rather, completely about George W. Bush.  The campaign was not so much Bush vs. Kerry as it was Bush vs. The-Guy-Who's-Not-Bush.

 

2008 is the same. Rather than Obama vs. McCain, it's Obama vs The-Guy-Who's-Not-Obama. The academic polling models say that after two terms of an unpopular president, a sinking economy, and a war that's draining both national morale and tax dollars, the opposition party should be a shoo-in to take the White House.  Remember, though, academic aerodynamic models also say it's impossible for a bumblebee to fly.

 

So why could Obama lose, and lose by a possibly substantial margin? That one's easy--he's a black guy with an Islamic-sounding name who scares the bejabbers out of many white voters, and makes millions more uncomfortable. Take the latest Missouri poll from Public Policy Polling--McCain leads Obama 50% to 40% in this vital battleground. But among white Missourians, it's 56% McCain, 35% Obama.  Among African-American Missourians, it's 81% Obama, 14% McCain.  Is race a central factor? No. Race is the central factor.

 

It's an evolution of the racial politics that the late GOP strategist Lee Atwater outlined so clearly to Case Western Reserve University political science professor Alexander Lamis in a 1981 interview. Lamis included it in a compilation he edited called Southern Politics in the 1990's (Louisiana State University Press, 1999):

 

"You start out in 1954 by saying, (n-word, n-word, n-word). " By 1968 you can't say  (n-word)—that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites.

 And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me—because obviously sitting around saying, "We want to cut this," is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "(n-word, n-word)".

 

So now we're even more abstract and coded than ever. "Obama is a celebrity" means "he's an uppity black guy." The bumper sticker with Obama's picture reading "Be afraid. Be very afraid"?  More code, meaning this black guy will get elected, and get even with white folks. The anonymous emails claiming Obama refused to meet with wounded troops, or refused to put his hand over his heart for the Pledge of Allegiance? He's an unpatriotic  black guy.

 

Don't fool yourself. This is exactly what millions of white voters are thinking. And it's why that, unless Obama gets a surge of first-time voters unlike anything we've seen before, he's probably going to lose.

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jimbobbob read my blog
Aug 20, 2008 | 5:26 PM

This is a bunch of crap! How about Obama being an empty suit, or that he is left-wing!! Obama is not good at debating!! Obama flip-flops on most issues, and Obama is programmed. Just maybe, if we looked at the man objectively, we would all realize that he is not a good candidate.


This race claim is a pile of crap!! As a white guy, I would love to vote for Condi Rice or Clarence Thomas, but they are not on the ballot!!
jimbobbob read my blog
Aug 20, 2008 | 5:29 PM

BOOGEDY=C.R.A.P.


I always knew that Mr. jaco was a biased left-winger, but his hate is really spewing on the blogs.
Mutatis-Mutandis read my blog
Aug 20, 2008 | 5:49 PM

Actually, Jaco is correct, and you won't admit it. I've already thought about this. I think when all these older white guys get in the booth they will think " I don't want a (you-know-what) for president.) Dont delude yourself JBB, you know its the truth. Same thing would happen with Clinton. . . because she's a woman, for you slow neo-cons.
JustCurious49
Aug 20, 2008 | 6:20 PM

It's not about race as much as the person being racist himself.

He is a lying white hating racist that just wants to be president because he's black and didn’t want Hillary to making history as the first women for to run for the White House before the first Black man runs. Most blacks will vote for him not because he is the man for the job, but because he is black.
mechany144 read my blog view my photos
Aug 20, 2008 | 7:28 PM

I would like to think that we as a country are beyond this. I do believe that most of us are.
In my 51 years I have rarely run into racism.
Will most blacks vote for him because he is black? Sure. Why not? This is not racism, it is because he is familiar, he is like us. But then again, I really do not think that is a good enough reason to vote for him, and most people are intelligent enough to realize it.
Then again, most people are intelligent enough to realize that McCain is not qualified to be president either.
As far as the code words. Sure. There are racists that believe that way. But not enough to affect the out come of the election. I would put money on it that if General Powell was running it would be a landslide victory for him. And he even ain't half and half!
jimbobbob read my blog
Aug 20, 2008 | 8:18 PM

Sure you will have some whites that will not vote for BO based on race. Many are trying to use this as an excuse, because BO is doing so bad. Face the facts, he is a lousy candidate!! Most people are beyond race, they look for the best qualified. I honestly do not care about race or gender, I only care about policy!
mechany144 read my blog view my photos
Aug 20, 2008 | 8:49 PM

Same here JB. Neither one is up to my standards. I truly think that most of us don't give a hoot and holler what the person looks like. And race is being used as an excuse! Obama is just not connecting good with the voters. McCain really is not either, the negativity both are using is the main culprit here. Tell us where you stand, what you stand for and what you can realistically acomplish.
Quit blowing smoke up our rears. We have you both pegged as worthless candidates. Dang it! We have to vote for the lesser of two evils once again! When will we get someone that we can honestly say is the best person for the job. We deserve someone that is over qualified for the job of President. I say give them a year as prez. If you suck we will have you fired!
Charles_Jaco read my blog view my photos
Aug 20, 2008 | 9:25 PM

Anyone who doesn't think this isn't about race, contact me. I have a bridge over the Mississippi I want to sell you. Public Policy Polling is just out with their new Missouri poll. It shows McCain with 50%, Obama with 40%. But take a look at these racial break-downs--in Missouri, McCain gets 56% of the white vote, while Obama only gets 35%. Compare that with the same poll's reading on Jay Nixon vs. Kenny Hulshof for governor. Hulshof and Nixon split the white vote evenly. The same poll shows Obama gets 81% of Missouri's African-American vote, while McCain gets 14%. I repeat--race has everything to do with this campaign.
mechany144 read my blog view my photos
Aug 20, 2008 | 9:36 PM

Well dang it Mr. Jaco! Wouldn't you know it. I am in the minority of the minority. I am part of that 5%! Libertarian all the way!
Part of this difference between McCain and Obama is also the fact that Missouri is a conservative state. If the Democrats had Biden up there the numbers would be about the same I would imagine. Oh, maybe 5 points closer, but Biden vs. McCain would be pretty much the same.
If I recall correctly it was not all that close with Kerry and Bush, though I was not here at that time.
mechany144 read my blog view my photos
Aug 20, 2008 | 9:37 PM

Which bridge bud? Have always liked the Eads bridge! Got a spare 50 bucks laying around....
Mutatis-Mutandis read my blog
Aug 20, 2008 | 10:08 PM

I see your 50 and raise to 60!
Flaglady read my blog view my photos
Aug 20, 2008 | 11:58 PM

I don't know about everyone, I know about me, I know about my friends. We don't fear Obama because of his race, it is his lack of experience and knowledge.

Is it really the people who you think made it a race issue or was it the news media who promotes it as a race issue thus convincing people it is a race issue?
dannbetty read my blog view my photos
Aug 21, 2008 | 11:49 AM

The fact that BO is in favor of Abortion, against off-shore drilling, in favor of socialized medicine(with no way to pay for it), and likely to change his mind on any of these given the right audience couldn't have anything to do with his electability.
What do you want Jacko- give him a 10% start-up lead and call it affirmative action?
You brought up his race I only respond to his stance on issues.
If you think he's uppity, you have the problem. I just think he's wrong-thinking and definitely lacking experience.
julybabe read my blog view my photos
Aug 21, 2008 | 5:24 PM

I totally agree with danbetty, race is not the issue for me but his lack of expierence and he changes his stance like he changes shoes. Blowing smoke in the wind.
jimbobbob read my blog
Aug 21, 2008 | 11:37 PM

Yeah it is all about Bo's left-wing views, not race. The Democrats did it again, and nominated a fringe-leftist! Of course Missouri voters are not going to support a radical politician. This race excuse is a joke!
SeniorCitizen view my photos
Aug 22, 2008 | 9:58 AM

This is NOT ABOUT RACE - it is about ISSUES. If any person would look at his issues they would see the problem, look at what he has done to Illinois, look how he has flipped flopped. People are NOT IDIOTS and they all do not play the RACE CARD. You appear to be the main one with the race issue - you must have a big problemm, and as a reporter you are to REPORT THE NEWS AND LEAVE YOUR OWN OPINIONS IN YOUR OWN HEAD. If you can not just give the straight news - then get out of reporting as we do not appreciate your thinking that we can not think for ourselves.
MIKE-FROM-IL read my blog view my photos
Aug 22, 2008 | 11:12 AM

JACO, You have lost it bud!!! There is more to it. Republicans are not for social programs. It's not about black vs white it's a democrat vs a republican. The country is 71% white a black president with white supervision makes no difference. He is doing this by himself and a little help from his friends i.e Macaskill. Who many times can a wanna be prescident change his mind? lets see He has a preacher thats a racist for 20yrs he breaks that relationship off. Than theres the Louis
farakon thing he breaks that off. Than he can't decide on his tax plan so he changes that, Than there is the whole middle east thing he keeps changeing his mind on. So he is definitly right about change. Just how many times is he going to change?
MIKE-FROM-IL read my blog view my photos
Aug 22, 2008 | 11:26 AM

As a 50% white guy I would vote for Colin Powell.
jimbobbob read my blog
Aug 22, 2008 | 11:50 AM

As a 100% White guy, I would vote for Clarence Thomas or Condi Rice!!
kkmmuurrpphhyy read my blog view my photos
Aug 22, 2008 | 12:21 PM

Bravo Jaco for yet again getting it all wrong and insulting everyone's intelligence. At least you're consistent.
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Charles_Jaco

I'm a reporter for Fox 2 and host of The Jaco Report, seen Saturdays at 6:30 p.m. and Sundays at 8:30 a.m.

Member Since: 9/13/2006


 

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