Chapman_JMC's Blog

With more fall polling coming our way, it's time for un update to our General Election, state by state, electoral college breakdown between John McCain and Barack Obama. 

As Democrats are starting to group around Barack Obama as their nominee, a few things have started to shift.  Last time, we had McCain ahead 289-249.  Has anything changed in the last week?

This weeks notes and changes:

Maine: This moderate-democrat state seems to be quite displeased with Republicans as Obama now appears to be ahead by double digits.  Maine and it's 4 votes move from "Lean Obama" to "Obama Safe."

Michigan: Polls show that these 17 votes are in a dead tie, so I'm going to move it back to the "Lean Obama" category from the "Lean McCain" one.  The economy here is terrible, so we'll keep this traditional Dem state there for now.

New Jersey: Polls in this state show it to be a close race, thus, I'm moving it's 15 votes from "Safe Obama" to "Lean Obama."

Virginia: I'm switching this state and its 13 votes from Lean Obama to Lean McCain.  Why?  McCain continues to be ahead in the polls. 

Ultimately, this shows a narrowing race in New Jersey, an expanding lead for Obama in Maine, a switch to Obama in Michigan and a switch to McCain in VA.

So, what is this week's election scorecard?:

McCain ahead: 285-253...and the race continues to narrow....

SCORECARD BELOW:

(2004 Numbers posted for comparison.)

McCain Safe: 135

Alabama (9): Bush won by +26...the state certainly won't swing that much.

Arkansas (6): Bush +9.  With a decent sized African American population, Obama might do okay, and the state is traditionally Democratic, but the white-blue-collar socially conservative dems aren't his strong suit.

Idaho (4): Bush +39.  Though Obama does well in the Rockies, and could close the margin, it still ain't going to be close. 

Indiana (11): Bush +21.  Though a neighboring state that gets a lot of Chicago news, this is THE Republican great lake state.

Kansas (6): Bush +25.  Obama's family is from here.  It is SLOWLY becoming more moderate, but it is still the home of Senator Brownback, so it's a far cry from a Dem leaning state, UNLESS Obama picks his favorite governor from the state, that could make things interesting. 

Kentucky (8): Bush +20.  Safe as can be for McCain, nothing else can be said. 

Louisiana (9): Bush +15.  Not the  most racially friendly of places, and growingly conservative.  McCain is safe. 

Mississippi (6): Bush +20.  The South is the South is the South.

Nebraska (5): Bush +33.  You don't turn Nebraska blue overnight. 

North Dakota (3): Bush +27.  See Nebraska. 

Oklahoma (7): Bush +32.  It's Oklahoma. 

South Dakota (3): Bush +21.  See North Dakota. 

Tennessee (11): Bush +14.  A state growing more Republican...

Texas (34): Bush +23.  This is a state that would have a huge swing toward Obama as it becomes more moderate and Bush is off the ballot.  Yes, I just said Texas is becoming more moderate.  (Obviously not in the small towns of West Texas...) Still, again, you don't make up 23 points in four years, McCain safe. 

Utah (5): Bush +46.  Vote for a Dem?  Ha!

West Virginia (5): Bush +13.  This 'Dem' state is in no mood for Obama. 

Wyoming (3): Bush +40.  The only state where Obama may want to play up the fact that Dick Cheney was a cousin.  Otherwise, see Utah. 

McCain Lean: 150

Alaska (3): Though Bush won by +25, anything can happen in Alaska, and Obama's anti-establishment credentials and strong showing in the primaries MIGHT make this closer than many think, especially if he spends any money there.

Arizona (10): Bush +11.  If McCain wasn't on the ballot, this might even lean to Obama.  But, with the home state boy on, seems impossible to get. 

Florida (27): Bush +5.  Florida is arguably growing more conservative, and Obama does not do as well with Older voters.  With some potential Cuban voter problems and the Dem primary mess there, this will be difficult for Obama to pick up. 

Georgia (15): Bush +17.  There is no real chance Obama can win Georgia, but as the state becomes more moderate, thanks to Atlanta, and with a large African American population, Obama may be able to close it to single digits, but a win is out of sight at the moment.

Missouri (11): Bush +7.  Missouri is still mostly a Southern conservative type state, and it seems to be turning redder.  Should stay for McCain. 

Montana (3): Bush +20.  According to recent polls, Obama has closed it to within 5.  Still,  McCain gets an edge. 

New Hampshire (4): Kerry +1.  This will be close, an independent minded state.  Still, McCain has ALWAYS been popular here, and there are no signs of that changing.  SWITCH. 

North Carolina (15): Bush +12.  Another Southern state that is slowly becoming more moderate.  Educated whites and a large African American pop play to Obama, but should still remain comfortably for McCain. 

Ohio (20): Bush +2.  The horror of 2004 will still be close, and with a Dem governor and the Dems finally come back to power in the state in 2006, this is still a socially conservative state that plays more to McCain than Obama. 

Pennsylvania *T* (21): Kerry +2.  Another toss-up, though, as James Carville says, it's Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle.  And, after making some calls there, it's not the most racially progressive of states.  I'm gonna call this a SWITCH for now.

South Carolina (8): Bush +17.  There are many in this state that don't like McCain, even with a strong vet pop.  Obama also made a stand here.  Though it will be closer than '04, this is still McCain country.

 Virginia *T* (13):  This state is becoming purple, with popular Dem governors and Senators.  Obama is VERY popular here (though so is McCain.)  This will likely be THE battleground.  Still, polls show McCain with a modest lead. 

Obama Safe: 172

California (55): Kerry +9.  Obama is popular here and McCain is not a fiscal conservative for those Orange County Republicans...California shouldn't be close.

Connecticut (7): Kerry +10.  Even with the help of Joe Liberman, CT is prime for Obama, especially as one of the only North Eastern states he won in the primary.

District of Columbia (3): Kerry +81.  You got that right, Kerry won by 81 pts, enough said.

Hawai'i (4): Kerry +9.  Always votes Dem, and Obama was born there.  Safe.

Illinois (21): Kerry +11.  Duh.

Maine (4): Kerry +9.  An Independent state, McCain is popular here, but so is Obama, and it still leans Dem.  Obama is now up by double digits in the state.

Maryland (10): +13.  Obama will sweep this liberal and highly African American state. 

Massachusetts (12): Kerry +25.  The most liberal state (though maybe Vermont these days) of them all. 

New York (31): Kerry +19.  Dem safe. 

Oregon (7): Kerry +4.  This toss-up state should be safe for Obama this year, this is his crowd. 

Rhode Island (4): Kerry +21.  The liberal North East...

Vermont (3): Kerry +20.  If Ben and Jerry say so, so does VT.

Washington (11): Kerry +7.  A battleground state no more. 

Obama Lean: 81

Colorado *T* (9): Bush +5.  Colorado gets more and more liberal every election.  It's one of the few states Kerry did better than Gore.  Obama did well here in the primaries, as well as the fact that he has done well in all Mountain states.  I'm giving him the lean. SWITCH

Delaware (3): Kerry +7: With liberal leanings and a large African American pop, this should lean Obama.

Iowa *T* (7): Bush +1. This will be close, it always is.  I'm going to give Obama a slight edge because it's a neighboring state and he also spent A LOT of time winning the primary there. SWITCH

Michigan (17): Kerry +3.  This will be a fun one, also one of the closest.  Though this one will probably be close to the end, McCain is popular here, the state is moderate, and with the primary flap on the Dem side, this may switch to McCain.  Still, the economy is terrible, and the polls show it tied.  So, we'll switch it back to an Obama Lean for now.

Minnesota (10): Kerry +3.  Though, like Iowa and Wisconsin, MN is playing very well for Obama.  Unless McCain picks the Republican governor here, it seems decently safe for Obama.

Nevada *T* (5): Bush +3.  This state is becoming bluer by the election, and Obama does well in the West, even with neighboring Arizona.  Slight advantage Obama.  SWITCH

New Jersey (15): Kerry +7.  Recent polls show this Democratic state leaning toward a toss-up category.

New Mexico *T* (5): Bush +1.  Another Western state that should play to Obama's advantage, still, always a close one.  Richardson would obviously make it a lock if he were the VP.  SWITCH 

Wisconsin *T* (10): Kerry +1.  Always a toss-up, being a neighboring state with a progressive slant, Obama should have the advantage.