Chapman_JMC's Blog

As John McCain runs in a year that is supposed to be prime for Democrats, some on the right still find hope in the close poll numbers.  Still, McCain's current problem is 4-fold, centered on one of his heroes: Ronald Reagan.  But, before we get there, let's start with the other three areas:

-Democratic Unity:  Currently, the polls show a 50/50 race between McCain and a potential Dem heading into the fall.  This largely comes from the current split in the Democratic race.  At the moment, 25% of Dems say they will pick John McCain if their Dem isn't chosen.  Really?  Does anybody believe that will happen? 

The real answer is, no, it will not.  The amount of people in the country who identify themselves as Democrats is the highest it's ever been.  There are now 10% more Dems than there are Republicans, not a small number to ignore.  In contested primaries, parties are always bitter, but as long as the candidate choice represents the party platform, then the party rallies behind their choice.  And, last time I checked, both Hillary and Barack are liberal, quite liberal. 

-Iraq:  As much as John McCain wants to say Iraq is going well, it's clear that, at best, it's not going well enough.  When a death toll hits 4,000 and Baghdad has to return to curfew, things remain downward.  If Iraq is discussed at all, which it will be, it's not good news for McCain.

-Bob Barr:  This one is prospective, but if Barr becomes the libertarian nominee, as discussed, this is HORRIBLE news for McCain.  If Barr is in the race, he will likely get 2-4% of the conservative vote, something McCain can not endure.  And what if Barr gets in the debates?  Uh-oh!  That figure could quickly climb to almost Ross Perot numbers. 

So keep an eye on the Libertarian primaries...

And now, to Reagan, and McCain's largest Achilles heel. 

-The Economy:  In a year when 55% of voters, 55%!, say the economy is the number one issue, then they certainly have to believe that John McCain will be able to better fix it than Barack Obama.  That ain't going to happen.

Why?  John McCain himself has said, to major newspapers and magazines, that he is going to have to 'read up' on the economy, and that he knows little about economics and mostly concentrates on foreign policy.  Last time I checked, that'd make him a better Secretary of State, not president. 

McCain's first economic address, a comment on the housing crisis, was a disaster, and there's no getting it back.  There, McCain spoke of old Reagan economics, saying that the government should have no involvement in the economy.  He blamed home owners, not lenders, for the problems at hand.  Hmmm, blaming the voters is not a wise move Mr. McCain.  Sure, home owners are to blame in that they took out loans that they shouldn't have.  But is there not also blame for the predatory lending companies?  Yes, smokers shouldn't smoke, and they get punished for it.  But we also rightly punish tobacco companies for legally being able to sell poison.  So, just because lenders can ruin people's lives, does that make it fair?

There are many in this country who believe Regan was the greatest president of our time.  It is clear that he was certainly the most influential as his policies continue to exist today.  Which is precisely the problem.

Sure the economy on the surface did okay or quite well for many of the past years.  But Reaganomics lead to an over-burden on the middle class.  The disparity between the classes is not only disgraceful but also detrimental to the economy.  For years, Conservatives thought that lower taxes meant a better economy.  But, for normal families making $40,000 to $120,000 a year, paying for medical bills, home loans, and out of control student tuition and loans for their children, it all added up.  And a weak dollar and four dollar gas prices won't fix the matter.

So, with the nation's largest purchasing class left in debt and struggling, McCain's Reaganesque economic policies are proving naive. 

During the Reagan "error," everyone was fat and happy except for minorities, Blacks, Hispanics, Atheists, Gays, and anyone who wasn't part of the White Christian right.  If you recall, Reagan went to Independence, MS to give a major speech on bringing back the America of old.  This meant an old wealthy conservative white America of the '50s, one that the civil rights era and progressives appropriately changed in the '60s and '70s.  There was no coincidence that Reagan gave this speech in Independence.  This was because it was a slap in the face to Martin Luther King, Jr., who gave one of his first major speeches in the same town.  Still, while these minorities were set back two decades by the Reagan policies, no one else seemed to mind. 

But, twenty years later, the diversity of the country has grown.  The African American, Hispanic, and Asian populations now account for roughly a 1/3 of the electorate.   The GLBT and Jewish populations account for another 7-8%.  With these demographics, and with a population that remembers the '80s, all is not well for a candidate that champions Reagan's old policies. 

And, as it becomes more and more clear that deregulation, drastic tax cuts for the wealthy, and a lack of funding for middle class needs has put the economy into the state that it is today, the rest of the population will look back and figure out that the Reaganomics of old should stay just that way, in the past tense.  A new economic platform is needed, and it is instantly clear that John McCain is not the man to offer that plan. 

So is the fall of the Republican era.