Apr 1, 2008 | 1:57 PM
Category:
Political
Still three weeks out from the next contest in PA, I've decided to update the delegate race. Last time, I showed a scenario that would be VERY favorable to Clinton, and, even then, she still lost the pledged delegate lead by 130 votes. Not nearly close enough.
Would two weeks of occurrences change anything in the delegate totals and my predictions?:
Current Delegate Vote: 1415-1253 (Obama +162)
April 22nd
-Pennsylvania: This race seems to be getting closer. Last time I had Clinton ahead by 16. Let's close the race ever so slightly to her winning now by 12, 56-44. Delegate Net: HRC +20
Lead down to Obama +142
May 3rd
-Guam: I have no idea, really, it's Guam, but there are only 4 delegates, so we'll call it even at 2-2 a piece, moving on...
May 6th
-North Carolina: Last time I had Obama over Clinton, 54-46. Obama continues to gain ground here, often ahead by 15-20 pts in the polls. Let's change it to an Obama victory: 57-43. Obama net gain: +15
-Indiana: Let's
think that Clinton will do well in this most conservative of Great
Lakes states, even with Obama as a neighbor, giving her a 55-45 win.
Clinton Net: +8
Obama lead after May 6th: Back up to +149.
May 13th
West Virginia: Well,
if there was ever a state with a lack of a black population and a lack
of the educated liberal elite, it'd be West Virginia. This is Clinton
Country! Polls continue to give her a big lead. Thus, I'll give her the biggest win she's had so far: 62-38.
Clinton Net: +6
Total after 5/13: Obama still up by 143
May 20th
Oregon: This
should be Obama country if I've ever seen it. Like Washington, it's
young, liberal, educated, etc...Obama wins big, though I'll still be
moderately conservative: 57-43. Obama gain: +8
Kentucky: West Virginia Part II, enough said. Clinton wins: 62-38. Clinton gain: +13
Total after 5/20: Obama up 138.
June 1st:
Puerto Rico: Those
big Clinton backers down there changed this last minute from a caucus
to a primary, helping out Hillary BIG TIME. That being said, she
should do well here as well, we'll call it 60-40. Clinton Gain: +11
Total after 6/01: Obama up 127
June 3rd:
Montana: So
far Obama's won by 20-50 (yes, I said 50) points in the mountain west
and plain states, so, let's be conservative and say he only wins by 15
pts. in both states this day: Obama gain from MT: +2
South Dakota: Obama gain from SD: +3
Total after 6/03: Obama +132
So, even if Clinton continues to do well in IN, PA, PR, KY, and WV, states perfect for her, she still only closes the gap to 132, not nearly close enough. With time running against her, the only thing that has changed in these predictions is a small 2pt. delegate swing toward Obama.
The days of Clinton's candidacy continue to slide toward the door.
