Chapman_JMC's Blog

Alright.  Now that November is in sight (let's pretend it is), I'll start breaking down the fall match-up.  While some may cry foul that the Democratic race is ongoing, until some major event proves otherwise, I'm going to call it Obama vs. McCain for now.

So, to break down the winner, I will start a series hosting a state-by-state breakdown, based on theories, polls, and happenings.  This week we'll start from scratch, listing the Obama safe and McCain safe states, the leaners, and the toss-ups (which I'll always throw into a leaner category to offer an overall electoral prediction so we can see a hypothetical winner.  To Denote a Toss-up, I'll add an * and a 'T')  Switches from the previous election will also be noted.  With that said, let's begin!

(2004 Numbers posted for comparison.)

McCain Safe: 135

Alabama (9): Bush won by +26...the state certainly won't swing that much.

Arkansas (6): Bush +9.  With a decent sized African American population, Obama might do okay, and the state is traditionally Democratic, but the white-blue-collar socially conservative dems aren't his strong suit.

Idaho (4): Bush +39.  Though Obama does well in the Rockies, and could close the margin, it still ain't going to be close. 

Indiana (11): Bush +21.  Though a neighboring state that gets a lot of Chicago news, this is THE Republican great lake state.

Kansas (6): Bush +25.  Obama's family is from here.  It is SLOWLY becoming more moderate, but it is still the home of Senator Brownback, so it's a far cry from a Dem leaning state, UNLESS Obama picks his favorite governor from the state, that could make things interesting. 

Kentucky (8): Bush +20.  Safe as can be for McCain, nothing else can be said. 

Louisiana (9): Bush +15.  Not the  most racially friendly of places, and growingly conservative.  McCain is safe. 

Mississippi (6): Bush +20.  The South is the South is the South.

Nebraska (5): Bush +33.  You don't turn Nebraska blue overnight. 

North Dakota (3): Bush +27.  See Nebraska. 

Oklahoma (7): Bush +32.  It's Oklahoma. 

South Dakota (3): Bush +21.  See North Dakota. 

Tennessee (11): Bush +14.  A state growing more Republican...

Texas (34): Bush +23.  This is a state that would have a huge swing toward Obama as it becomes more moderate and Bush is off the ballot.  Yes, I just said Texas is becoming more moderate.  (Obviously not in the small towns of West Texas...) Still, again, you don't make up 23 points in four years, McCain safe. 

Utah (5): Bush +46.  Vote for a Dem?  Ha!

West Virginia (5): Bush +13.  This 'Dem' state is in no mood for Obama. 

Wyoming (3): Bush +40.  The only state where Obama may want to play up the fact that Dick Cheney was a cousin.  Otherwise, see Utah. 

McCain Lean: 154

Alaska (3): Though Bush won by +25, anything can happen in Alaska, and Obama's anti-establishment credentials and strong showing in the primaries MIGHT make this closer than many think, especially if he spends any money there.

Arizona (10): Bush +11.  If McCain wasn't on the ballot, this might even lean to Obama.  But, with the home state boy on, seems impossible to get. 

Florida (27): Bush +5.  Florida is arguably growing more conservative, and Obama does not do as well with Older voters.  With some potential Cuban voter problems and the Dem primary mess there, this will be difficult for Obama to pick up. 

Georgia (15): Bush +17.  There is no real chance Obama can win Georgia, but as the state becomes more moderate, thanks to Atlanta, and with a large African American population, Obama may be able to close it to single digits, but a win is out of sight at the moment.

Michigan (17): Kerry +3.  This will be a fun one, also one of the closest.  Though this one will probably be close to the end, McCain is popular here, the state is moderate, and with the primary flap on the Dem side, this probably goes McCain.  SWITCH

Missouri (11): Bush +7.  Missouri is still mostly a Southern conservative type state, and it seems to be turning redder.  Should stay for McCain. 

Montana (3): Bush +20.  This is one of the Rocky states where Obama will close the gap, but the margins are just too high.  McCain gets an edge. 

New Hampshire (4): Kerry +1.  This will be close, an independent minded state.  Still, McCain has ALWAYS been popular here, and there are no signs of that changing.  SWITCH. 

North Carolina (15): Bush +12.  Another Southern state that is slowly becoming more moderate.  Educated whites and a large African American pop play to Obama, but should still remain comfortably for McCain. 

Ohio (20): Bush +2.  The horror of 2004 will still be close, and with a Dem governor and the Dems finally come back to power in the state in 2006, this is still a socially conservative state that plays more to McCain than Obama. 

Pennsylvania *T* (21): Kerry +2.  Another toss-up, though, as James Carville says, it's Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle.  And, after making some calls there, it's not the most racially progressive of states.  I'm gonna call this a SWITCH for now.

South Carolina (8): Bush +17.  There are many in this state that don't like McCain, even with a strong vet pop.  Obama also made a stand here.  Though it will be closer than '04, this is still McCain country. 

Obama Safe: 183

California (55): Kerry +9.  Obama is popular here and McCain is not a fiscal conservative for those Orange County Republicans...California shouldn't be close.

Connecticut (7): Kerry +10.  Even with the help of Joe Liberman, CT is prime for Obama, especially as one of the only North Eastern states he won in the primary.

District of Columbia (3): Kerry +81.  You got that right, Kerry won by 81 pts, enough said.

Hawai'i (4): Kerry +9.  Always votes Dem, and Obama was born there.  Safe.

Illinois (21): Kerry +11.  Duh.

Maryland (10): +13.  Obama will sweep this liberal and highly African American state. 

Massachusetts (12): Kerry +25.  The most liberal state (though maybe Vermont these days) of them all.

New Jersey (15): Kerry +7.  Despite the fact that this become more moderate the last time around, I'm keeping it a safe Obama state for now, it always has been for the Dems. 

New York (31): Kerry +19.  Dem safe. 

Oregon (7): Kerry +4.  This toss-up state should be safe for Obama this year, this is his crowd. 

Rhode Island (4): Kerry +21.  The liberal North East...

Vermont (3): Kerry +20.  If Ben and Jerry say so, so does VT.

Washington (11): Kerry +7.  A battleground state no more. 

Obama Lean: 66

Colorado *T* (9): Bush +5.  Colorado gets more and more liberal every election.  It's one of the few states Kerry did better than Gore.  Obama did well here in the primaries, as well as the fact that he has done well in all Mountain states.  I'm giving him the lean. SWITCH

Delaware (3): Kerry +7: With liberal leanings and a large African American pop, this should lean Obama.

Iowa *T* (7): Bush +1. This will be close, it always is.  I'm going to give Obama a slight edge because it's a neighboring state and he also spent A LOT of time winning the primary there. SWITCH

Maine (4): Kerry +9.  An Independent state, McCain is popular here, but so is Obama, and it still leans Dem. 

Minnesota (10): Kerry +3.  Though, like Iowa and Wisconsin, MN is playing very well for Obama.  Unless McCain picks the Republican governor here, it seems decently safe for Obama.

Nevada *T* (5): Bush +3.  This state is becoming bluer by the election, and Obama does well in the West, even with neighboring Arizona.  Slight advantage Obama.  SWITCH

New Mexico *T* (5): Bush +1.  Another Western state that should play to Obama's advantage, still, always a close one.  Richardson would obviously make it a lock if he were the VP.  SWITCH

Virginia *T* (13):  This state is becoming purple, with popular Dem governors and Senators.  Obama is VERY popular here (though so is McCain.)  This will likely be THE battleground.  I'm calling a SWITCH.  

Wisconsin *T* (10): Kerry +1.  Always a toss-up, being a neighboring state with a progressive slant, Obama should have the advantage. 



OVERALL:

Currently, I'm going to give a SLIGHT edge to McCain: 289-249.  That's close folks. 

I currently have  MI, PA, and NH switching to McCain from the 2004 election.  I have Obama picking up VA, NM, IA, CO, and NV, but, at the moment, that's not enough if he loses some of the others.