Chapman_JMC's Blog

So, with nothing going on this week politically, other than one of the largest speeches on race in American history, I've decided to see how close Hillary can actually make it to Obama, from a delegate battle perspective. 

Alas, my predictions for the upcoming contests, generously giving to the Clinton campaign as I believe Obama will do better than this, but this is the probably worst he will do.

Current Delegate Vote: 1414-1246 (Obama +168)

April 22nd

-Pennsylvania: Clinton beats Obama 58-42 (Note a big win here) Delegate Net: HRC +26

Lead down to Obama +142

May 3rd

-Guam: I have no idea, really, it's Guam, but there are only 4 delegates, so we'll call it even at 2-2 a piece, moving on...

May 6th

-North Carolina: Obama over Clinton, 54-46.  I doubt it will be this close, but hey, let's be conservative.  Obama net gain: +9
-Indiana: Let's think that Clinton will do well in this most conservative of Great Lakes states, even with Obama as a neighbor, giving her a 56-44 win.  Clinton Net: +8

Obama lead after May 6th: Back up to +143, pretty much a wash.

May 13th

West Virginia: Well, if there was ever a state with a lack of a black population and a lack of the educated liberal elite, it'd be West Virginia.  This is Clinton Country!  Thus, I'll give her the biggest win she's had so far: 62-38.  Clinton Net: +6

Total after 5/13: Obama still up by 137

May 20th

Oregon: This should be Obama country if I've ever seen it.  Like Washington, it's young, liberal, educated, etc...Obama wins big, though I'll still be moderately conservative: 57-43.  Obama gain: +8
Kentucky: West Virginia Part II, enough said.  Clinton wins: 59-41.  Clinton gain: +9

Total after 5/20: Another wash, Obama up 136.

June 1st:

Puerto Rico:  Those big Clinton backers down there changed this last minute from a caucus to a primary, helping out Hillary BIG TIME.  That being said, she should do well here as well, we'll call it 60-40.  Clinton Gain: +11

Total after 6/01: Obama up 125

June 3rd:

Montana: So far Obama's won by 20-50 (yes, I said 50) points in the mountain west and plain states, so, let's be conservative and say he only wins by 15 pts. in both states this day: Obama gain from MT: +2
South Dakota: Obama gain from SD: +3

Total after 6/03: Obama +130

So, let's see, even with BIG Clinton wins in PA, IN, WV, PR, KY and a close call in NC, Clinton picks up 12 delegates, that's it!  That's less than 10% of what she needs. 

You really think the superdelegates are going to overrule a 100+ delegate lead?  So, again, tell me how it's remotely possible that she wins this?  Anybody?  Anybody?  Bueller?  Anybody?