Chapman_JMC's Blog

Amidst the supposed small town condescension by Barack Obama, it turns out that it may be Hillary Clinton that has said the most offensive of things.

According to the Huffington Post, the very source that unleashed Barack Obama's comments, in 1995, when discussing Southern Working Class Whites, Hillary said to her Husband Bill, "Screw Them!  They don't owe you a thing!" 

Check it out here:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/16/hillary-clint
on-on-workin_n_97017.html

With more fall polling coming our way, it's time for un update to our General Election, state by state, electoral college breakdown between John McCain and Barack Obama. 

As Democrats are starting to group around Barack Obama as their nominee, a few things have started to shift.  Last time, we had McCain ahead 289-249.  Has anything changed in the last week?

This weeks notes and changes:

Maine: This moderate-democrat state seems to be quite displeased with Republicans as Obama now appears to be ahead by double digits.  Maine and it's 4 votes move from "Lean Obama" to "Obama Safe."

Michigan: Polls show that these 17 votes are in a dead tie, so I'm going to move it back to the "Lean Obama" category from the "Lean McCain" one.  The economy here is terrible, so we'll keep this traditional Dem state there for now.

New Jersey: Polls in this state show it to be a close race, thus, I'm moving it's 15 votes from "Safe Obama" to "Lean Obama."

Virginia: I'm switching this state and its 13 votes from Lean Obama to Lean McCain.  Why?  McCain continues to be ahead in the polls. 

Ultimately, this shows a narrowing race in New Jersey, an expanding lead for Obama in Maine, a switch to Obama in Michigan and a switch to McCain in VA.

So, what is this week's election scorecard?:

McCain ahead: 285-253...and the race continues to narrow....

SCORECARD BELOW:

(2004 Numbers posted for comparison.)

McCain Safe: 135

Alabama (9): Bush won by +26...the state certainly won't swing that much.

Arkansas (6): Bush +9.  With a decent sized African American population, Obama might do okay, and the state is traditionally Democratic, but the white-blue-collar socially conservative dems aren't his strong suit.

Idaho (4): Bush +39.  Though Obama does well in the Rockies, and could close the margin, it still ain't going to be close. 

Indiana (11): Bush +21.  Though a neighboring state that gets a lot of Chicago news, this is THE Republican great lake state.

Kansas (6): Bush +25.  Obama's family is from here.  It is SLOWLY becoming more moderate, but it is still the home of Senator Brownback, so it's a far cry from a Dem leaning state, UNLESS Obama picks his favorite governor from the state, that could make things interesting. 

Kentucky (8): Bush +20.  Safe as can be for McCain, nothing else can be said. 

Louisiana (9): Bush +15.  Not the  most racially friendly of places, and growingly conservative.  McCain is safe. 

Mississippi (6): Bush +20.  The South is the South is the South.

Nebraska (5): Bush +33.  You don't turn Nebraska blue overnight. 

North Dakota (3): Bush +27.  See Nebraska. 

Oklahoma (7): Bush +32.  It's Oklahoma. 

South Dakota (3): Bush +21.  See North Dakota. 

Tennessee (11): Bush +14.  A state growing more Republican...

Texas (34): Bush +23.  This is a state that would have a huge swing toward Obama as it becomes more moderate and Bush is off the ballot.  Yes, I just said Texas is becoming more moderate.  (Obviously not in the small towns of West Texas...) Still, again, you don't make up 23 points in four years, McCain safe. 

Utah (5): Bush +46.  Vote for a Dem?  Ha!

West Virginia (5): Bush +13.  This 'Dem' state is in no mood for Obama. 

Wyoming (3): Bush +40.  The only state where Obama may want to play up the fact that Dick Cheney was a cousin.  Otherwise, see Utah. 

McCain Lean: 150

Alaska (3): Though Bush won by +25, anything can happen in Alaska, and Obama's anti-establishment credentials and strong showing in the primaries MIGHT make this closer than many think, especially if he spends any money there.

Arizona (10): Bush +11.  If McCain wasn't on the ballot, this might even lean to Obama.  But, with the home state boy on, seems impossible to get. 

Florida (27): Bush +5.  Florida is arguably growing more conservative, and Obama does not do as well with Older voters.  With some potential Cuban voter problems and the Dem primary mess there, this will be difficult for Obama to pick up. 

Georgia (15): Bush +17.  There is no real chance Obama can win Georgia, but as the state becomes more moderate, thanks to Atlanta, and with a large African American population, Obama may be able to close it to single digits, but a win is out of sight at the moment.

Missouri (11): Bush +7.  Missouri is still mostly a Southern conservative type state, and it seems to be turning redder.  Should stay for McCain. 

Montana (3): Bush +20.  According to recent polls, Obama has closed it to within 5.  Still,  McCain gets an edge. 

New Hampshire (4): Kerry +1.  This will be close, an independent minded state.  Still, McCain has ALWAYS been popular here, and there are no signs of that changing.  SWITCH. 

North Carolina (15): Bush +12.  Another Southern state that is slowly becoming more moderate.  Educated whites and a large African American pop play to Obama, but should still remain comfortably for McCain. 

Ohio (20): Bush +2.  The horror of 2004 will still be close, and with a Dem governor and the Dems finally come back to power in the state in 2006, this is still a socially conservative state that plays more to McCain than Obama. 

Pennsylvania *T* (21): Kerry +2.  Another toss-up, though, as James Carville says, it's Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle.  And, after making some calls there, it's not the most racially progressive of states.  I'm gonna call this a SWITCH for now.

South Carolina (8): Bush +17.  There are many in this state that don't like McCain, even with a strong vet pop.  Obama also made a stand here.  Though it will be closer than '04, this is still McCain country.

 Virginia *T* (13):  This state is becoming purple, with popular Dem governors and Senators.  Obama is VERY popular here (though so is McCain.)  This will likely be THE battleground.  Still, polls show McCain with a modest lead. 

Obama Safe: 172

California (55): Kerry +9.  Obama is popular here and McCain is not a fiscal conservative for those Orange County Republicans...California shouldn't be close.

Connecticut (7): Kerry +10.  Even with the help of Joe Liberman, CT is prime for Obama, especially as one of the only North Eastern states he won in the primary.

District of Columbia (3): Kerry +81.  You got that right, Kerry won by 81 pts, enough said.

Hawai'i (4): Kerry +9.  Always votes Dem, and Obama was born there.  Safe.

Illinois (21): Kerry +11.  Duh.

Maine (4): Kerry +9.  An Independent state, McCain is popular here, but so is Obama, and it still leans Dem.  Obama is now up by double digits in the state.

Maryland (10): +13.  Obama will sweep this liberal and highly African American state. 

Massachusetts (12): Kerry +25.  The most liberal state (though maybe Vermont these days) of them all. 

New York (31): Kerry +19.  Dem safe. 

Oregon (7): Kerry +4.  This toss-up state should be safe for Obama this year, this is his crowd. 

Rhode Island (4): Kerry +21.  The liberal North East...

Vermont (3): Kerry +20.  If Ben and Jerry say so, so does VT.

Washington (11): Kerry +7.  A battleground state no more. 

Obama Lean: 81

Colorado *T* (9): Bush +5.  Colorado gets more and more liberal every election.  It's one of the few states Kerry did better than Gore.  Obama did well here in the primaries, as well as the fact that he has done well in all Mountain states.  I'm giving him the lean. SWITCH

Delaware (3): Kerry +7: With liberal leanings and a large African American pop, this should lean Obama.

Iowa *T* (7): Bush +1. This will be close, it always is.  I'm going to give Obama a slight edge because it's a neighboring state and he also spent A LOT of time winning the primary there. SWITCH

Michigan (17): Kerry +3.  This will be a fun one, also one of the closest.  Though this one will probably be close to the end, McCain is popular here, the state is moderate, and with the primary flap on the Dem side, this may switch to McCain.  Still, the economy is terrible, and the polls show it tied.  So, we'll switch it back to an Obama Lean for now.

Minnesota (10): Kerry +3.  Though, like Iowa and Wisconsin, MN is playing very well for Obama.  Unless McCain picks the Republican governor here, it seems decently safe for Obama.

Nevada *T* (5): Bush +3.  This state is becoming bluer by the election, and Obama does well in the West, even with neighboring Arizona.  Slight advantage Obama.  SWITCH

New Jersey (15): Kerry +7.  Recent polls show this Democratic state leaning toward a toss-up category.

New Mexico *T* (5): Bush +1.  Another Western state that should play to Obama's advantage, still, always a close one.  Richardson would obviously make it a lock if he were the VP.  SWITCH 

Wisconsin *T* (10): Kerry +1.  Always a toss-up, being a neighboring state with a progressive slant, Obama should have the advantage. 

As John McCain runs in a year that is supposed to be prime for Democrats, some on the right still find hope in the close poll numbers.  Still, McCain's current problem is 4-fold, centered on one of his heroes: Ronald Reagan.  But, before we get there, let's start with the other three areas:

-Democratic Unity:  Currently, the polls show a 50/50 race between McCain and a potential Dem heading into the fall.  This largely comes from the current split in the Democratic race.  At the moment, 25% of Dems say they will pick John McCain if their Dem isn't chosen.  Really?  Does anybody believe that will happen? 

The real answer is, no, it will not.  The amount of people in the country who identify themselves as Democrats is the highest it's ever been.  There are now 10% more Dems than there are Republicans, not a small number to ignore.  In contested primaries, parties are always bitter, but as long as the candidate choice represents the party platform, then the party rallies behind their choice.  And, last time I checked, both Hillary and Barack are liberal, quite liberal. 

-Iraq:  As much as John McCain wants to say Iraq is going well, it's clear that, at best, it's not going well enough.  When a death toll hits 4,000 and Baghdad has to return to curfew, things remain downward.  If Iraq is discussed at all, which it will be, it's not good news for McCain.

-Bob Barr:  This one is prospective, but if Barr becomes the libertarian nominee, as discussed, this is HORRIBLE news for McCain.  If Barr is in the race, he will likely get 2-4% of the conservative vote, something McCain can not endure.  And what if Barr gets in the debates?  Uh-oh!  That figure could quickly climb to almost Ross Perot numbers. 

So keep an eye on the Libertarian primaries...

And now, to Reagan, and McCain's largest Achilles heel. 

-The Economy:  In a year when 55% of voters, 55%!, say the economy is the number one issue, then they certainly have to believe that John McCain will be able to better fix it than Barack Obama.  That ain't going to happen.

Why?  John McCain himself has said, to major newspapers and magazines, that he is going to have to 'read up' on the economy, and that he knows little about economics and mostly concentrates on foreign policy.  Last time I checked, that'd make him a better Secretary of State, not president. 

McCain's first economic address, a comment on the housing crisis, was a disaster, and there's no getting it back.  There, McCain spoke of old Reagan economics, saying that the government should have no involvement in the economy.  He blamed home owners, not lenders, for the problems at hand.  Hmmm, blaming the voters is not a wise move Mr. McCain.  Sure, home owners are to blame in that they took out loans that they shouldn't have.  But is there not also blame for the predatory lending companies?  Yes, smokers shouldn't smoke, and they get punished for it.  But we also rightly punish tobacco companies for legally being able to sell poison.  So, just because lenders can ruin people's lives, does that make it fair?

There are many in this country who believe Regan was the greatest president of our time.  It is clear that he was certainly the most influential as his policies continue to exist today.  Which is precisely the problem.

Sure the economy on the surface did okay or quite well for many of the past years.  But Reaganomics lead to an over-burden on the middle class.  The disparity between the classes is not only disgraceful but also detrimental to the economy.  For years, Conservatives thought that lower taxes meant a better economy.  But, for normal families making $40,000 to $120,000 a year, paying for medical bills, home loans, and out of control student tuition and loans for their children, it all added up.  And a weak dollar and four dollar gas prices won't fix the matter.

So, with the nation's largest purchasing class left in debt and struggling, McCain's Reaganesque economic policies are proving naive. 

During the Reagan "error," everyone was fat and happy except for minorities, Blacks, Hispanics, Atheists, Gays, and anyone who wasn't part of the White Christian right.  If you recall, Reagan went to Independence, MS to give a major speech on bringing back the America of old.  This meant an old wealthy conservative white America of the '50s, one that the civil rights era and progressives appropriately changed in the '60s and '70s.  There was no coincidence that Reagan gave this speech in Independence.  This was because it was a slap in the face to Martin Luther King, Jr., who gave one of his first major speeches in the same town.  Still, while these minorities were set back two decades by the Reagan policies, no one else seemed to mind. 

But, twenty years later, the diversity of the country has grown.  The African American, Hispanic, and Asian populations now account for roughly a 1/3 of the electorate.   The GLBT and Jewish populations account for another 7-8%.  With these demographics, and with a population that remembers the '80s, all is not well for a candidate that champions Reagan's old policies. 

And, as it becomes more and more clear that deregulation, drastic tax cuts for the wealthy, and a lack of funding for middle class needs has put the economy into the state that it is today, the rest of the population will look back and figure out that the Reaganomics of old should stay just that way, in the past tense.  A new economic platform is needed, and it is instantly clear that John McCain is not the man to offer that plan. 

So is the fall of the Republican era. 

Two days ago, I wrote of the ever closing race.  At the time, at the start of Obama's bus tour around the state, Hillary's lead had closed from 15-20 pts to 5-12.  Though not close enough, it was a start.

Well, what a difference a few million dollars in TV ads, a six day bus tour, and bowling and beer will do.

In two polls out in the last 24hrs, Obama now trails by 2 in the American Research poll (which has him only getting 55% of the Black vote?) and actually LEADING by two in the PPP poll.  Now, these have been two of the most accurate polls out there. 

This is just dreadful news for Hillary.  She better hope that, over the next 2 1/2 weeks, the numbers don't continue like this.  If her margins are under five points, she will limp on, as if she's not limping already.  If she were to lose PA, I repeat, this race is OVER. 

Obama's problem...19 days is a long time....

Still three weeks out from the next contest in PA, I've decided to update the delegate race.  Last time, I showed a scenario that would be VERY favorable to Clinton, and, even then, she still lost the pledged delegate lead by 130 votes.  Not nearly close enough.

Would two weeks of occurrences change anything in the delegate totals and my predictions?:

Current Delegate Vote: 1415-1253 (Obama +162)

April 22nd

-Pennsylvania: This race seems to be getting closer.  Last time I had Clinton ahead by 16.  Let's close the race ever so slightly to her winning now by 12, 56-44.  Delegate Net: HRC +20

Lead down to Obama +142

May 3rd

-Guam: I have no idea, really, it's Guam, but there are only 4 delegates, so we'll call it even at 2-2 a piece, moving on...

May 6th

-North Carolina: Last time I had Obama over Clinton, 54-46.  Obama continues to gain ground here, often ahead by 15-20 pts in the polls.  Let's change it to an Obama victory: 57-43.  Obama net gain: +15

-Indiana: Let's think that Clinton will do well in this most conservative of Great Lakes states, even with Obama as a neighbor, giving her a 55-45 win.  Clinton Net: +8

Obama lead after May 6th: Back up to +149.

May 13th

West Virginia: Well, if there was ever a state with a lack of a black population and a lack of the educated liberal elite, it'd be West Virginia.  This is Clinton Country!  Polls continue to give her a big lead.  Thus, I'll give her the biggest win she's had so far: 62-38.  Clinton Net: +6

Total after 5/13: Obama still up by 143

May 20th

Oregon: This should be Obama country if I've ever seen it.  Like Washington, it's young, liberal, educated, etc...Obama wins big, though I'll still be moderately conservative: 57-43.  Obama gain: +8
Kentucky: West Virginia Part II, enough said.  Clinton wins: 62-38.  Clinton gain: +13

Total after 5/20: Obama up 138.

June 1st:

Puerto Rico:  Those big Clinton backers down there changed this last minute from a caucus to a primary, helping out Hillary BIG TIME.  That being said, she should do well here as well, we'll call it 60-40.  Clinton Gain: +11

Total after 6/01: Obama up 127

June 3rd:

Montana: So far Obama's won by 20-50 (yes, I said 50) points in the mountain west and plain states, so, let's be conservative and say he only wins by 15 pts. in both states this day: Obama gain from MT: +2
South Dakota: Obama gain from SD: +3

Total after 6/03: Obama +132

So, even if Clinton continues to do well in IN, PA, PR, KY, and WV, states perfect for her, she still only closes the gap to 132, not nearly close enough.  With time running against her, the only thing that has changed in these predictions is a small 2pt. delegate swing toward Obama. 

The days of Clinton's candidacy continue to slide toward the door. 

After leading by 15-20 pts in Pennsylvania a week or two ago, Hillary Clinton's lead is quickly dropping. 

A Rasmussen poll out today has shown that her once 15 point lead fell to 13 two weeks ago, 10 last week, and 5 this week. 

A Survey USA poll out today as well shows that the race isn't quite so close, but still shows that Clinton's 19 point lead has now fallen to 12. 

With several weeks to go before Pennsylvania, anything can happen.  Sure, there could be another 'wright' type controversy against Obama, but, if anything, as seen in these polls, Obama's numbers have actually gone up, since the controversy occurred. 

If Hillary is only able to win PA by single digits, the media will play it as a close race, and she will surely be unable to pick up enough delegates to even make things look competitive.

If Obama continues to close, as he is able to outspend her 4-1, plus he always does well when he has time to campaign, could he actually pull off a surprise victory there?  Though still unlikely, it would certainly put a nail in Hillary's coffin, effectively ending the Democratic primary race. 

A major conservative has entered the race to be a third party challenge to John McCain, and that man is Bob Barr.  According to FitsNews:

http://www.fitsnews.com/2008/03/31/barr-to-announce-pr
esidential-bid-next-week/

Barr was a devout Republican congressman from Georgia, famous for leading the fight against Bill Clinton in the Lewinsky scandal. 

So, what does this mean?  Well, first Barr has to officially announce that he's running as a Libertarian (which he is expected to do next week) and then, secondly, he has to win the party's nomination.  (Yes, third parties have conventions like anyone else, it's just that no one ever pays attention.)

If those two things occur, which, according to this report seems likely, Barr could certainly do some damage.  Though he'd likely not win a single state, or even get close, even if he pulls 2-3%, that could be enough to swing the election if it's close.  (Remember Nader '00?) 

Still, Barr could potentially do even more than that.  Barr could be that candidate for the far right, the Bush right.  Will the Ann Coulter's and the Rush Limbaugh's of the world back Barr?  Possibly.  And what if he is to get the Ron Paul type of money, as Paul is rumored to be endorsing Barr. 

An angry base and money is something Nader never had.  So, now, let's imagine that, especially if he can get in the debates, Barr could potentially get 4-8% of the vote, especially pulling votes in the South.  Would this push Virginia to Obama?  Would this put more moderate Southern states like North Carolina and Georgia more within Obama's reach? 

Whatever the answer is, it's not good for John McCain. 

It seems that the Artic is melting faster than many thought, even those within the global warming community.  Troublesome indeed. 

I've pasted the article below, or you can see it at: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23797247/

MSNBC Article:

A vast ice shelf hanging on by a thin strip looks to be the next chunk to break off from the Antarctic Peninsula, the latest sign of global warming’s impact on Earth's southernmost continent.

Scientists are shocked by the rapid change of events.

Glaciologist Ted Scambos of the University of Colorado was monitoring satellite images of the Wilkins Ice Shelf and spotted a huge iceberg measuring 25 miles by 1.5 miles (about the area of Manhattan) that appeared to have broken away from the shelf.

Scambos alerted colleagues at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) that it looked like the entire ice shelf — about 6,180 square miles (about the size of Northern Ireland)— was at risk of collapsing.

David Vaughan of the BAS had predicted in 1993 that the northern part of the Wilkins Ice Shelf was likely to be lost within 30 years if warming on the Peninsula continued at the same rate.

"Wilkins is the largest ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula yet to be threatened," he said. "I didn't expect to see things happen this quickly. The ice shelf is hanging by a thread — we'll know in the next few days and weeks what its fate will be."

Aircraft reconnaissance
The BAS scientists sent an aircraft out on a reconnaissance mission to survey the extent of damage to the ice shelf.

Jim Elliot, who captured video of the breakout said, "I've never seen anything like this before — it was awesome. We flew along the main crack and observed the sheer scale of movement from the breakage. Big hefty chunks of ice, the size of small houses, look as though they've been thrown around like rubble — it's like an explosion."

An initial iceberg calved away from the Wilkins Ice Shelf on Feb. 28. A series of images shows the edge of the ice shelf proceeding to crumble and disintegrate in a pattern characteristic of climate-caused ice shelf retreats throughout the northern Antarctic Peninsula. The disintegration left a sky-blue patch of hundreds of large blocks of exposed old glacier ice floating across the ocean surface.

By March 8, the ice shelf had lost just over 220 square miles of ice, and the disintegrated ice had spread over 540 square miles. As of mid-March only a narrow strip of shelf ice between Charcot and Latady islands was protecting several thousand more kilometers of the ice shelf from potentially breaking up.

The region where the Wilkins Ice Shelf lies has experienced unprecedented warming in the past 50 years, with several ice shelves retreating in the past 30 years. Six of these ice shelves have collapsed completely: Prince Gustav Channel, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, Larsen B, Wordie, Muller and the Jones Ice Shelf.

Antarctic warming
The Wilkins Ice Shelf was stable for most of the last century until it began retreating in the 1990s. A previous major breakout occurred there in 1998 when 390 square miles of ice was lost in just a few months.

"We believe the Wilkins has been in place for at least a few hundred years, but warm air and exposure to ocean waves are causing it to break up," Scambos said.

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed faster than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere; temperature records show that the region has warmed by over 37 degrees Fahrenheit during the past 50 years — several times the global average and only matched in Alaska.

 

Other parts of Antarctica, including the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, seem to be more stable, though areas of melt have been observed in recent years.

Melting in the Antarctic is different than the recent record melt in the Arctic. Antarctica is composed of ice sheets, or huge masses of ice up to 2.5 miles thick that lie on top of bedrock and flow toward the coast, and ice shelves, the floating extensions of ice sheets. Arctic ice is primarily sea ice, some of which persists year-round and some of which melts in the summer and freezes again in the winter.

After a week of Obama bashing, he went on vacation to the Caribbean.  Good for him, if only we could all be in St. Thomas right now. 

While he is away, Clinton had three days to her own, able to shape it however she wants.  What did she do?  Bring up Bosnia?  Oopps.

Clinton quoted last week that, upon landing in Bosnia in 1996, she remembers coming out of the plane under sniper fire as she ran toward the motorcade, ducking under fire.

How did it actually turn out?  There was a welcome brigade as she AND Chelsea were there, joined by a small Bosnian girl reading a poem.  Hardly a battle zone.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=8BfNqhV5hg4

Why is this a problem for Hillary?  Because she's running on her national experience, and this just goes to show that, while she was traveling the world, it often was little more than a smile for the camera.  As some have said, sure, she's been around the world, but so has my travel agent. 

The oddest thing is that she just mentioned this last week.  Surely she knew that there were reporters around at the time and that it would all be on tape.  So, how could she make such a gaffe?

Alright.  Now that November is in sight (let's pretend it is), I'll start breaking down the fall match-up.  While some may cry foul that the Democratic race is ongoing, until some major event proves otherwise, I'm going to call it Obama vs. McCain for now.

So, to break down the winner, I will start a series hosting a state-by-state breakdown, based on theories, polls, and happenings.  This week we'll start from scratch, listing the Obama safe and McCain safe states, the leaners, and the toss-ups (which I'll always throw into a leaner category to offer an overall electoral prediction so we can see a hypothetical winner.  To Denote a Toss-up, I'll add an * and a 'T')  Switches from the previous election will also be noted.  With that said, let's begin!

(2004 Numbers posted for comparison.)

McCain Safe: 135

Alabama (9): Bush won by +26...the state certainly won't swing that much.

Arkansas (6): Bush +9.  With a decent sized African American population, Obama might do okay, and the state is traditionally Democratic, but the white-blue-collar socially conservative dems aren't his strong suit.

Idaho (4): Bush +39.  Though Obama does well in the Rockies, and could close the margin, it still ain't going to be close. 

Indiana (11): Bush +21.  Though a neighboring state that gets a lot of Chicago news, this is THE Republican great lake state.

Kansas (6): Bush +25.  Obama's family is from here.  It is SLOWLY becoming more moderate, but it is still the home of Senator Brownback, so it's a far cry from a Dem leaning state, UNLESS Obama picks his favorite governor from the state, that could make things interesting. 

Kentucky (8): Bush +20.  Safe as can be for McCain, nothing else can be said. 

Louisiana (9): Bush +15.  Not the  most racially friendly of places, and growingly conservative.  McCain is safe. 

Mississippi (6): Bush +20.  The South is the South is the South.

Nebraska (5): Bush +33.  You don't turn Nebraska blue overnight. 

North Dakota (3): Bush +27.  See Nebraska. 

Oklahoma (7): Bush +32.  It's Oklahoma. 

South Dakota (3): Bush +21.  See North Dakota. 

Tennessee (11): Bush +14.  A state growing more Republican...

Texas (34): Bush +23.  This is a state that would have a huge swing toward Obama as it becomes more moderate and Bush is off the ballot.  Yes, I just said Texas is becoming more moderate.  (Obviously not in the small towns of West Texas...) Still, again, you don't make up 23 points in four years, McCain safe. 

Utah (5): Bush +46.  Vote for a Dem?  Ha!

West Virginia (5): Bush +13.  This 'Dem' state is in no mood for Obama. 

Wyoming (3): Bush +40.  The only state where Obama may want to play up the fact that Dick Cheney was a cousin.  Otherwise, see Utah. 

McCain Lean: 154

Alaska (3): Though Bush won by +25, anything can happen in Alaska, and Obama's anti-establishment credentials and strong showing in the primaries MIGHT make this closer than many think, especially if he spends any money there.

Arizona (10): Bush +11.  If McCain wasn't on the ballot, this might even lean to Obama.  But, with the home state boy on, seems impossible to get. 

Florida (27): Bush +5.  Florida is arguably growing more conservative, and Obama does not do as well with Older voters.  With some potential Cuban voter problems and the Dem primary mess there, this will be difficult for Obama to pick up. 

Georgia (15): Bush +17.  There is no real chance Obama can win Georgia, but as the state becomes more moderate, thanks to Atlanta, and with a large African American population, Obama may be able to close it to single digits, but a win is out of sight at the moment.

Michigan (17): Kerry +3.  This will be a fun one, also one of the closest.  Though this one will probably be close to the end, McCain is popular here, the state is moderate, and with the primary flap on the Dem side, this probably goes McCain.  SWITCH

Missouri (11): Bush +7.  Missouri is still mostly a Southern conservative type state, and it seems to be turning redder.  Should stay for McCain. 

Montana (3): Bush +20.  This is one of the Rocky states where Obama will close the gap, but the margins are just too high.  McCain gets an edge. 

New Hampshire (4): Kerry +1.  This will be close, an independent minded state.  Still, McCain has ALWAYS been popular here, and there are no signs of that changing.  SWITCH. 

North Carolina (15): Bush +12.  Another Southern state that is slowly becoming more moderate.  Educated whites and a large African American pop play to Obama, but should still remain comfortably for McCain. 

Ohio (20): Bush +2.  The horror of 2004 will still be close, and with a Dem governor and the Dems finally come back to power in the state in 2006, this is still a socially conservative state that plays more to McCain than Obama. 

Pennsylvania *T* (21): Kerry +2.  Another toss-up, though, as James Carville says, it's Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle.  And, after making some calls there, it's not the most racially progressive of states.  I'm gonna call this a SWITCH for now.

South Carolina (8): Bush +17.  There are many in this state that don't like McCain, even with a strong vet pop.  Obama also made a stand here.  Though it will be closer than '04, this is still McCain country. 

Obama Safe: 183

California (55): Kerry +9.  Obama is popular here and McCain is not a fiscal conservative for those Orange County Republicans...California shouldn't be close.

Connecticut (7): Kerry +10.  Even with the help of Joe Liberman, CT is prime for Obama, especially as one of the only North Eastern states he won in the primary.

District of Columbia (3): Kerry +81.  You got that right, Kerry won by 81 pts, enough said.

Hawai'i (4): Kerry +9.  Always votes Dem, and Obama was born there.  Safe.

Illinois (21): Kerry +11.  Duh.

Maryland (10): +13.  Obama will sweep this liberal and highly African American state. 

Massachusetts (12): Kerry +25.  The most liberal state (though maybe Vermont these days) of them all.

New Jersey (15): Kerry +7.  Despite the fact that this become more moderate the last time around, I'm keeping it a safe Obama state for now, it always has been for the Dems. 

New York (31): Kerry +19.  Dem safe. 

Oregon (7): Kerry +4.  This toss-up state should be safe for Obama this year, this is his crowd. 

Rhode Island (4): Kerry +21.  The liberal North East...

Vermont (3): Kerry +20.  If Ben and Jerry say so, so does VT.

Washington (11): Kerry +7.  A battleground state no more. 

Obama Lean: 66

Colorado *T* (9): Bush +5.  Colorado gets more and more liberal every election.  It's one of the few states Kerry did better than Gore.  Obama did well here in the primaries, as well as the fact that he has done well in all Mountain states.  I'm giving him the lean. SWITCH

Delaware (3): Kerry +7: With liberal leanings and a large African American pop, this should lean Obama.

Iowa *T* (7): Bush +1. This will be close, it always is.  I'm going to give Obama a slight edge because it's a neighboring state and he also spent A LOT of time winning the primary there. SWITCH

Maine (4): Kerry +9.  An Independent state, McCain is popular here, but so is Obama, and it still leans Dem. 

Minnesota (10): Kerry +3.  Though, like Iowa and Wisconsin, MN is playing very well for Obama.  Unless McCain picks the Republican governor here, it seems decently safe for Obama.

Nevada *T* (5): Bush +3.  This state is becoming bluer by the election, and Obama does well in the West, even with neighboring Arizona.  Slight advantage Obama.  SWITCH

New Mexico *T* (5): Bush +1.  Another Western state that should play to Obama's advantage, still, always a close one.  Richardson would obviously make it a lock if he were the VP.  SWITCH

Virginia *T* (13):  This state is becoming purple, with popular Dem governors and Senators.  Obama is VERY popular here (though so is McCain.)  This will likely be THE battleground.  I'm calling a SWITCH.  

Wisconsin *T* (10): Kerry +1.  Always a toss-up, being a neighboring state with a progressive slant, Obama should have the advantage. 



OVERALL:

Currently, I'm going to give a SLIGHT edge to McCain: 289-249.  That's close folks. 

I currently have  MI, PA, and NH switching to McCain from the 2004 election.  I have Obama picking up VA, NM, IA, CO, and NV, but, at the moment, that's not enough if he loses some of the others. 

It's Friday, which means I'm going to start what may be a weekly series of the 'best three videos' from the world of politics this week. To start:

1) 3 a.m. girl doesn't approve of her image in the Hillary ad, so she made her own:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgraha
mfelsen/gGBnrf

2) And finally, John McCain, the supposed foreign policy expert, demonstrates his 'expertise.' And Joe Liberman (JOE LIBERMAN!) has to correct him. Sheesh.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=-cQdVGLr34M

3) Here on Fox News this morning (as previously posted), Chris Wallace takes his fellow journalists to task for blatant 'Obama Bashing.'

http://youtube.com/watch?v=S5vzwJXszww&feature=bz301a>


And it's a wrap!

See, it's not just me, the good folks at Politico have backed me up, Hillary is virtually toast.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9149.html>

All wasn't all too friendly on Fox News this morning, as Chris Wallace had something to say about his fellow journalists re: "Obama bashing."

Take a look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiIK8jh3ZCE

Today, Obama received one of the biggest endorsements out there, that of former Presidential candidate, Bill Richardson.  The only problem?  It's a little too late as all states with a large Hispanic population have already voted, other than Puerto Rico.  That being said, it's still a good endorsement for the Senator, amidst a rather tough week for him.  It's also a sign that the party elite may still be leaning toward him.

With that being said, this brings up a good time to talk about VP's, so check back for that as I'll break them down, Republican and Dem.

Meanwhile, here's a copy of Richardson's speech:

My friends,

Earlier this week, an extraordinary American gave a historic speech. 

Senator Barack Obama addressed the issue of race with the eloquence and sincerity and decency and optimism we have come to expect of him. 

He did not seek to evade tough issues or to soothe us with comforting half-truths. 

Rather, he inspired us by reminding us of the awesome potential residing in our own responsibility.

Senator Obama could have given a safer speech. 

He is, after all, well ahead in the delegate count for our party's nomination. 

He could have just waited for the controversy over the deplorable remarks of Reverend Wright to subside, as it surely would have. 

Instead, Senator Obama showed us once again what kind of leader he is. 

He spoke to us as adults. 

He asked us to ponder the weight of our racially-divided past, to rise above it, and to seize the opportunity to carry forward the work of many patriots of all races, who struggled and died to bring us together. 

Senator Obama reminded us that cynicism is not realism, and that hope is not folly. 

He called upon us not just to dream about a less racially-divided America, but also to do the hard work needed to build such an America. 

He asked every American to see the reality and the pain of other Americans, so that together we can rise above that which has divided us.

He appealed to the best in us.

As a Hispanic, I was particularly touched by his words. 

I have been troubled by the demonization of immigrants--specifically Hispanics-- by too many in this country.

Hate crimes against Hispanics are rising as a direct result and now, in tough economic times, people look for scapegoats and I fear that people will continue to exploit our racial differences-and place blame on others not like them. 

We all know the real culprit -- the disastrous economic policies of the Bush Administration!

Senator Obama has started a discussion in this country long overdue and rejects the politics of pitting race against race.

He understands clearly that only by bringing people together, only by bridging our differences can we all succeed together as Americans. 

His words are those of a courageous, thoughtful and inspiring leader, who understands that a house divided against itself cannot stand. 

And, after 8 years of George W. Bush, we will desperately need such a leader.

Our national security and our global standing have been gravely damaged by the divisive partisanship of recent years. 

We need a President who can bring us together as a nation so that we can face urgent global challenges and repair the damage done in the last 7 years. 

Barack Obama will make the historic and vital investments into renewable energy, to help create clean energy jobs and fight global warming.

Barack knows that the safety and future of every American child requires that we restore our shared sense of national purpose, so that we can then set about the hard work of rebuilding our alliances and rehabilitating our image in a dangerous world.

By uniting our nation, we can reverse America's global decline. 

We need a realistic, principled, and bipartisan foreign policy again. 

We must restore our international reputation, our influence and our capacity to lead others. 

America must become the beacon for the world again.

We need a foreign policy based upon American ideals, and not upon the mere ideology of a President. 

A foreign policy of diplomacy and respect for international human rights.

We prospered and prevailed in the Cold War because both our friends and our enemies knew that containment of the Soviet Union and the promotion of democratic values was not a Democratic or a Republican policy - it was an American policy--the very essence of what America was.

Senator Obama understands the importance of realism, principle, and bipartisanship in foreign policy. 

He opposed the Iraq war from the beginning because he knew that, despite what the Administration claimed, this war would not be easy. 

He also opposed the war because he saw President Bush's rush to employ military force, and to do so without the support of most of our allies, as dangerous and unwarranted. 

And he saw the war also for what it so quickly became - a terrible source of partisan political division -- and a catastrophic distraction from the war that had united us against the real threat posed by Al Qaeda. 

Now, I trust him to do what is so long overdue-End the Iraq war and bring our troops home!!

I know Senator Obama well. 

I first got to know him when I chaired the last Democratic National Convention, where he gave that wonderful keynote address. 

And then, last year, as we campaigned against each other for the Presidency, I came to fully appreciate his steadfast patriotism and remarkable talents. 

I also felt a kinship with him because we both had one foreign-born parent and we both lived abroad as children. 

In part because of these experiences, Barack and I share a deep sense of our nation's special responsibilities in the world.

[Turn toward Obama and smile]

Barack Obama, you are an extraordinary leader who has shown courage, sound judgment and wisdom throughout your career. 

You understand the security challenges of the 21st century, and you will be an outstanding Commander in Chief. 

Above all, you will be a President who brings this nation together and restores American global leadership. 

You will make every American proud to be an American, and I am very proud indeed to endorse your candidacy. 

Before concluding my remarks, I would like to say that we are blessed to have two great American leaders and great Democrats running for President. 

My great affection and admiration for Hillary Clinton and President Bill Clinton will never waver. 

It is time, however, for Democrats to stop fighting amongst ourselves and to prepare for the tough fight we will face against John McCain in the Fall.  

The 1990's were a decade of peace and prosperity because of the competent and enlightened leadership of the Clinton administration, but it is now time for a new generation of leadership to lead America forward. 

Barack Obama will be a historic and a great President, who can bring us the change we so desperately need by bringing us together as a nation here at home and with our allies abroad. 

I know that all Democrats will work tirelessly to get him elected.

It is my distinct honor and privilege to introduce to you the next President of the United States, my friend, Barack Obama.

So, with nothing going on this week politically, other than one of the largest speeches on race in American history, I've decided to see how close Hillary can actually make it to Obama, from a delegate battle perspective. 

Alas, my predictions for the upcoming contests, generously giving to the Clinton campaign as I believe Obama will do better than this, but this is the probably worst he will do.

Current Delegate Vote: 1414-1246 (Obama +168)

April 22nd

-Pennsylvania: Clinton beats Obama 58-42 (Note a big win here) Delegate Net: HRC +26

Lead down to Obama +142

May 3rd

-Guam: I have no idea, really, it's Guam, but there are only 4 delegates, so we'll call it even at 2-2 a piece, moving on...

May 6th

-North Carolina: Obama over Clinton, 54-46.  I doubt it will be this close, but hey, let's be conservative.  Obama net gain: +9
-Indiana: Let's think that Clinton will do well in this most conservative of Great Lakes states, even with Obama as a neighbor, giving her a 56-44 win.  Clinton Net: +8

Obama lead after May 6th: Back up to +143, pretty much a wash.

May 13th

West Virginia: Well, if there was ever a state with a lack of a black population and a lack of the educated liberal elite, it'd be West Virginia.  This is Clinton Country!  Thus, I'll give her the biggest win she's had so far: 62-38.  Clinton Net: +6

Total after 5/13: Obama still up by 137

May 20th

Oregon: This should be Obama country if I've ever seen it.  Like Washington, it's young, liberal, educated, etc...Obama wins big, though I'll still be moderately conservative: 57-43.  Obama gain: +8
Kentucky: West Virginia Part II, enough said.  Clinton wins: 59-41.  Clinton gain: +9

Total after 5/20: Another wash, Obama up 136.

June 1st:

Puerto Rico:  Those big Clinton backers down there changed this last minute from a caucus to a primary, helping out Hillary BIG TIME.  That being said, she should do well here as well, we'll call it 60-40.  Clinton Gain: +11

Total after 6/01: Obama up 125

June 3rd:

Montana: So far Obama's won by 20-50 (yes, I said 50) points in the mountain west and plain states, so, let's be conservative and say he only wins by 15 pts. in both states this day: Obama gain from MT: +2
South Dakota: Obama gain from SD: +3

Total after 6/03: Obama +130

So, let's see, even with BIG Clinton wins in PA, IN, WV, PR, KY and a close call in NC, Clinton picks up 12 delegates, that's it!  That's less than 10% of what she needs. 

You really think the superdelegates are going to overrule a 100+ delegate lead?  So, again, tell me how it's remotely possible that she wins this?  Anybody?  Anybody?  Bueller?  Anybody?