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by Bruce_Gordon from Philadelphia

Last Post 14 days, 20 hours Ago


what it takes to win (no, it's not what you think)
Aug 26, 2008 | 7:06 PM
Category: Political
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Forget the national polls.  The Democrats, meeting this week in Denver, will win the White House if they figure out a way to "flip" a tiny handful of states this November-- maybe just one!

George W. Bush won re-election in 2004 by beating John Kerry in the Electoral College 286-252 (270 electoral votes gets you the prize).  Assuming- and this is a safe assumption- that the vast majority of states will vote in 2008 the way they voted in '04, the Dems start this election in a 34 electoral vote "hole."  That means they must find 18 "new" electoral votes to win the White House, since their added 18 would also mean 18 fewer for the Republicans (18+18=36-- enough to overcome the 34 vote deficit-- you get the idea).

Where do the new votes come from?  States that voted "red" (Republican) in '04 that can be flipped to "blue" ( Democrat) this time around. Florida is worth 27 electoral votes.  If the Democrats flip Florida and keep what they won last election, they take the Presidency.  Ohio, too, is a big enough "flip," since it's a "red in '04" state that's worth 20 electoral votes.  Or how about some combinations?  Like, for example, Virginia (13 electoral votes) plus Nevada (5) or New Mexico (5).  Or, say, Indiana (11 electoral votes) plus Colorado (9)?

Here's the problem:  All of the polling shows that while Barack Obama is putting lots of time/energy/money into these flip-able states, polling shows none of them is going to be an easy win.  In fact, most of the states are at best "toss-ups."  Without flipping Florida or Ohio, or some combination of smaller states, Sen. Obama cannot win the White House.

Bruce

 

 

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DeweyDevil read my blog view my photos
Aug 27, 2008 | 9:03 AM

Bruce,
Your description of flipping states is somewhat one sided. You are assuming the repblicans are doing nothing to flip states that voted blue?

I mentioned elsewhere..... If Mccain picks Tom Ridge as his vp being a former gov of PA could very well flip pennsylvania red negating any gains the democrats may strive for.

Ridge was the first homeland security tsar as well and left the bush admin it is thought because he could not get the funding to protect our sea ports.... Poitioning himself as a rebel so to speak in the republican party. Kinda like what mccain used to be.
movealready read my blog
Aug 27, 2008 | 9:48 AM

Can you imaginge if Hillary wins a floor vote?
Urban America will ignite. Read on.

I Smell a Clinton Coup Brewing
By JB Williams Tuesday, August 19, 2008



After Barockstar?s near fatal empty suit performance at Saddleback Saturday, the Obama spin machine is in damage control overdrive. I wonder if they?ve had time to realize that they have been triangulated by the Clinton war room and set up to take a fall at the DNC convention?

That old Clinton war room stench is in the air again? It seems the empty suit and his empty headed staff is not quite up to speed on Clintonian strategeries.

Consider the latest Clinton maneuvers
? Camp Clinton convinced Camp Obama to help liquidate her campaign debts.
? Camp Clinton convinced Camp Obama to call for Florida and Michigan voters to be counted. It?s the right thing to do, of course. But had it already been done, Hillary would already be the nominee.
? Camp Clinton convinces Camp Obama to agree to a floor vote at the convention when all the cameras will be rolling. What if Clinton wins on the floor?
? Camp Clinton removes Obama supporter John Edwards from the equation, along with his scheduled convention speaking spot, on the basis that he is now a known lying cheater. But Bill Clinton (also a known lying cheater) is the headliner of the convention, and he?s not an Obama supporter at all.
? Barockstar tanks on national TV only days before the convention and his campaign staff is sent out to do damage control, leaving the super-delegates gasping in a holy crap moment, with the sudden realization that this
movealready read my blog
Aug 27, 2008 | 9:51 AM

empty suit is in no way ready for the big show. Only a promise to make a VP announcement this week can get his failed TV appearance off the front pages.
? Meanwhile, Camp Clinton is mobilizing millions of NObama minions and staging a convention coup in which Hillary can ride in on silver steed to save the party from complete implosion on an international stage?

Even James Carville, Dick Morris and Oliver Stone combined, could not have written this script any better. All we need is a second gunman on the grassy knoll. Howard Dean maybe?

The fact that millions of Democrat voters were intentionally disenfranchised by their own party in the primaries leaves the chosen one the prime target of too many in-house enemies. And nobody in American politics is better at organizing, mobilizing and exploiting in-house enemies than the Clintons.

Barockstar?s off-teleprompter performances consistently make George Bush look like a silver tongued genius. That fact makes even the most ardent Obama supporters second guess their early hypnotic socialist driven lust for the chosen one.

Ship Obama is taking on water faster than the spin machine can bail. The DNC is going to need a new savior by this time next week and guess who is positioned to save the party?

The super-delegates are not bound by their verbal commitments of support for Obama. With each passing hour, Barockstar convinces more and more Americans, including delegates, that his empty suit is only outdone by his empty head.

Without a teleprompter, Obama?s inexperience becomes glaringly obvious. Fa
movealready read my blog
Aug 27, 2008 | 9:52 AM

Face it; Obama lost Saturday?s open forum discussion with a very friendly Rick Warren while McCain was still traveling to the location in his motorcade. Once McCain arrived, all he had to do to win was not follow Barockstar down the toilet.

One must wonder who set this guy up in the first place
Most Americans knew he had little chance of making it to the finish line from the start. Never in history has a less qualified individual sought the highest office in the land with such a blank résumé.

His over-inflated ego made him the perfect mark for a perfect storm. Accidents like this don?t happen in politics, where little is ever left to chance.

Who set this naïve freshman up? Whoever it is, they did it magnificently!

This is the problem with pompous pride. It always leaves you blind and vulnerable to your attackers. The freshman nobody had no chance. He was a minnow swimming among sharks. In today?s cutthroat DNC, which is caught in a perpetual power struggle, such an inexperienced individual was no match for career political deviants like the Clintons.

The only open question at this point is this; does Hillary have the votes to pull it off?

I wouldn?t lay my money against her!

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JB Williams is a business man, a husband, a father, and a writer. A no nonsense commentator on American politics, American history, and American philosophy. He is published nationwide and in many countries around the world. JB Williams? website is jb-williams.com/

JB Williams can be reached at: JB_Williams@comcast
dprin339 read my blog view my photos
Aug 27, 2008 | 11:07 AM

sorry move, i just HAVE to borrow this......thanks
Bruce_Gordon read my blog
Aug 27, 2008 | 2:54 PM

Dear DeweyDevil- thanks for your reponse. In answer to your question, I have not seen any polls (maybe New Hampshire?) that suggest Sen. McCain is in position to win any states that went Democrat in 2004. You're right, Tom Ridge could put PA back in play, but the most recent polls show Obama over McCain by 5-7 percentage points here, and Ridge's pro-choice position would no doubt anger social conservatives among the GOP, making him a longshot for VP. Best Regards, Bruce
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Bruce_Gordon

Hi, I'm Bruce Gordon, FOX 29 News reporter, specializing in political coverage.

Member Since: 10/25/2006


 

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