Oct 10, 2008 | 8:30 AM
Category:
Political
DEMOCRATIC LANDSLIDE?
A month of historic economic upheaval has done more than just tilt a handful of once-reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory on November 4th. Could they be right? They could well be wrong… but John McCain will have to steer his campaign back onto the road with punch and purpose to reverse the trend.
Here’s why the Dems are so gleeful: Four large states McCain once seemed well-positioned to win—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida—have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states—a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events—he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes. 270 Electoral College votes are what it takes to win the White House.
Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide. Politico.com says that would likely mean a sweep of the Southwestern swing states—Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada—not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri.
The dismal economy is clearly making the difference. The Gallup polling organization finds that 69 percent of Americans believe the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. The second most cited issue, the war in Iraq, is now listed as the number one concern by only 11 percent of voters.
And in the latest Gallup poll… Obama has opened a stunning 11 point national lead over McCain… 52 to 41… his largest edge of the entire campaign.
Obama hasn't relinquished the lead in the poll since he went ahead in late September, and he has trailed only during two periods since the start of the summer.
Obama's new high-water mark comes at a time when he has seized substantial leads in many of the battleground states that will determine the winner. He leads McCain 52-42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll in Wisconsin, a 2004 John Kerry state that McCain has made one of his top targets after pulling out of Michigan last week.
Obama's rise has coincided with massive spending on the TV airwaves, where he is relentlessly exploiting a money advantage. The New York Post reports Obama has outspent McCain and the Republican National Committee by nearly $7 million nationwide over the last week.
Yet if the Obama campaign really thinks it has a lock on the election, it’s making a mistake. Maybe a landslide is in the making – but maybe not. There are four weeks to go. A lot can happen. Maybe the Republicans will still manage an October surprise? Or perhaps the news will finally start breaking their way.
PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE #2
Now about this past week’s debate… the second McCain-Obama matchup. I agree with those who said beforehand that McCain really needed to come away with form it with a decided advantage. He didn’t.
McCain did come armed with an ambitious 300-billion dollar surprise plan to buy up the bad American mortgages that helped tip the global economy into crisis. But he phrased it as a headline… providing not a shred of detail. And that was a mistake. Even McCain’s spin room folks had trouble filling in the blanks. It was left to the Obama camp to contend the proposal was merely part of the $700 billion rescue plan. In an Obama aide’s words: “It was Obama, not McCain, who called for this move two weeks ago." Bottom line: the McCain plan, when he said it, sounded refreshing. He and his people should have been ready to sell it hard. They weren’t and they didn’t.
A CNN national poll after the debate found that 54 percent of those asked thought Obama won and 30 percent said McCain was victorious. A CBS survey also gave the debate to Obama -- 40 percent to 26 percent.
Obama seemed as comfortable as his rival in the "town-hall" format. McCain loves that format, but this time he looked uncomfortable pacing the stage at Nashville’s Belmont University (almost like a boxer in a ring) when it was Obama’s turn to speak.
McCain’s best moment came when he tapped the shoulder of a retired Navy man… a Chief Petty Officer who had just asked a question. McCain told him he learned what he knew about leadership from a Navy Chief. Honest, heartfelt words. (Chiefs really do run the Navy!).
On the other hand, McCain -- criticized for rarely looking at Obama during their first debate two weeks ago -- let his dislike of his opponent show again, when he referred to him as "that one" in a tense exchange over energy. Terrible choice of words.
So bottom line is that McCain came to Nashville hoping the second presidential debate would help him jar loose a campaign that for the past month has been about the economy, the economy and the economy.
He didn't get his wish.
