Sep 26, 2008 | 7:59 AM
Category:
Political
WHAT A WEEK!
Lots of big and unexpected political maneuvering this week. You’ve been keeping up with news of a threatened debate delay, while both major candidates parachuted into the teetering negotiations over the $700 billion bailout bill. Did their bailout summit with the president in the Cabinet Room help or hurt? It was supposed to be a bipartisan approach, but hasn’t turned out that way.
All this, including the on-and-off tentative agreement on the massive government resuscitation of sagging banks and brokerages is still playing out as I write this. So, instead, let me draw your attention to three other trends… one of them particularly troubling.
RACIAL MISGIVINGS COULD COST OBAMA THE WHITE HOUSE
Three interesting surveys on the American political mood are out from the folks at the Associated Press and Yahoo News. I found the most interesting – and most disturbing – showing that racial views are steering some white Democrats away from Barack Obama.
In fact, these deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close. The AP-Yahoo survey found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent," responsible for their own troubles.
The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points.
Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.
More than a third of all white Democrats and independents — voters Obama can't win the White House without — agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.
Such numbers are a harsh dose of reality in a campaign for the history books. Obama, the first black candidate with a serious shot at the presidency, accepted the Democratic nomination on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech, a seminal moment for a nation that enshrined slavery in its Constitution.
Stanford political scientist Paul Snider – who helped analyze exhaustive study – had a sharp, but realistic take: "There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there are only a few bigots."
Will the November 4 presidential election really come down to the question of how many whites will pull the lever or punch their ballot card for a black man? Very sadly, it just might.
THE STUBBORN HILLARY VOTERS
Another chapter of the AP-Yahoo polling shows Obama's support from backers of Hillary Clinton is stuck smack where it was in June, a stunning lack of progress that is weakening him with members of the Democratic Party in the close presidential race.
Among adults who backed his rival during their bitter primary campaign, 58 percent now support Obama. That is the same percentage who said so in June, when Clinton ended her bid and urged her backers to line up behind the Democratic senator from Illinois.
The poll shows that while Obama has gained ground among Clinton's supporters — 69 percent view him favorably now, up 9 percentage points from June — this has yet to translate into more of their support.
In part, this is because their positive views of McCain have also improved during this period. This reluctance by Clinton backers' to support Obama helps explain why he is having a tougher time rallying members of his own party. Overall, 74 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Obama, 87 percent of Republicans say they are committed to McCain.
The problem Clinton supporters have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues. From establishing a timeline for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq to abortion to canceling tax cuts on the rich, their views of the importance of issues are virtually identical to Democrats in general.
Yet they find Obama less likable, honest, experienced and inspiring than Democrats overall do, and have a better view of McCain. And that is a big problem for Barack Obama.
THE UNDECIDED: STILL NOT SATISFIED WITH EITHER MAJOR CANDIDATE
And the final set of results from this same sampling finds that with Wall Street in turmoil and the economy in shambles, whichever presidential candidate convinces a swath of persuadable voters that he gets it — and can be trusted to lead the country back to fiscal stability — could well win the White House.
AP-Yahoo! finds 18 percent of likely voters are up for grabs — undecided or willing to change their minds — just five weeks before Americans choose between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.
A large chunk of these voters say they are hurting on a personal level from the country's economic woes, and, like everyone else, they say the economy is the top issue. Most haven't decided who would best solve their problems as president; neither candidate has an advantage on handling the economy.
Simply put: Most are looking for a better life and a leader to help make it happen — and most haven't found what they seek in Obama or McCain.
Historically, the ruling party loses the White House when the economy is bad, and it's rare for voters to keep the same party in power for three straight terms. But the poll shows that Obama still hasn't sealed the deal and McCain still has a shot after eight years of President Bush.
National surveys indicate a competitive race, meaning persuadable voters could affect the outcome. Thus, both campaigns are pouring millions of dollars into advertising with precisely targeted pitches aimed at this small slice of the electorate.
The key to unlocking the support of persuadable voters may be this: convincing them that one candidate alone has the ability to identify, understand and fix the country's ills, especially the economy.
For better or worse, the election is still more than a month away, and that's plenty of time for voters to settle on a candidate — or change their minds.
