Sep 19, 2008 | 8:08 AM
Category:
Political
BIG MO STARTS TO SWING BACK OBAMA’S WAY
The party conventions and the Sarah Palin surge behind them, Barack Obama and John McCain are neck and neck again in their race for the White House. Indications are – however – that both the momentum and the political environment are tilting toward Camp Obama.
The next most likely chance for change lies with the upcoming televised debates. And the first one of those comes up next Fri Sep 26. It will be in Oxford, Mississippi at the University of Mississippi. The topics: foreign policy and national security. The debate will be formatted into nine nine-minute segments, with the moderator introducing the topics.
Just looking ahead, the Vice Presidential Debate is set for Thr Oct 2 at Washington University in St. Louis. The second presidential debate is set for Tue Oct 7 in Nashville with the third on Wed Oct 15 in Hempstead, New York at Hofstra University on domestic and economic policy. Like the first debate, this one’s to be formatted into nine nine-minute segments.
In recent days, Democrat Obama has seemed to regain his footing amid Wall Street's chaos and a renewed focus on the economy, a Democratic strength with a Republican in the White House. Also, McCain's late-summer boost, credited to his choice of Palin as his running mate, appears to be dissipating.
THE POLLS
A flurry of national polls now show Obama even or slightly ahead of McCain depending on the survey. The race to reach 270 Electoral College votes, however, remains extraordinarily close in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and other key states.
Let’s run through poll results (as of Thursday night) in those and other battlegrounds. I am citing the Real Clear Politics average of these state by state surveys. McCain leads by 4.5% in Florida, 1.5% in Ohio, 2.3% in Virginia, 6.6% in Missouri and 1% in Nevada. Obama is ahead by 1.3% in Pennsylvania, 2.3% in Michigan and Wisconsin, 3.3% in New Hampshire, 2.5% in Colorado, and 4.3% in New Mexico.
Here in California – no surprise – Obama is well ahead, with an RCP average lead of 12.6%
WHY OBAMA HAS STRUGGLED
By most indicators, this is an election year made for Democrats.
Most people think the country is headed the wrong direction, and they are very sour on Bush. The nation is at war and in economic straits. History shows voters are reluctant to keep a political party in office for three straight terms, and people are hungry for change.
Even so, Obama has struggled to stake out a significant lead. He has been fighting to reassure voters who continue to be troubled by these points: He is a first-term senator from Chicago with a foreign-sounding name, has black skin and a liberal voting record.
Yet Obama spent much of the summer driving the campaign agenda.
Then, McCain – in the start of a series of hard-hitting TV ads -- painted him as a celebrity who offered little but soaring rhetoric. Many Democrats worried that their guy wasn’t hitting back hard enough, soon enough. Memories came flooding back of John Kerry’s wobbly and ultimately losing campaign four years ago.
McCain entered the fall having energized the party's conservative base with his Palin pick while wielding a message of change. Polls showed an uptick in overall support as women swung toward the Republican team. Yet it’s hard to believe Palin is really picking up more than a very few Hillary Clinton diehards. Their politics are so different.
"IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID"
As the days went by early this month, Obama's campaign appeared unsure how to respond as questions of character and personality dominated the dialogue. Party insiders openly urged Obama to return to the one issue that Democrats have had an edge on for months — the economy.
Then, financial institutions began failing and of course the stock market tumbled this week. Obama was quick to blame Bush policies and argued McCain would offer the same. He empathized with a smarting public.
McCain, meantime, has stumbled — at, perhaps, the worst possible time. As markets nose-dived, the Arizona senator made his oft-repeated assertion that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong." Democrats called him out of touch and just like Bush.
VIEWING RUSSIA FROM HOME
Then fellow Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel didn’t do McCain any favors by calling it a "stretch" to say Palin has the experience needed to be president if necessary and added: "She doesn't have any foreign policy credentials." That very funny Saturday Night Live parody by Tina Fey last weekend had her Palin character countering by saying: “I can see Russia from my house.”
And, while he didn't question her qualifications, Bush's former political guru Karl Rove (and party operative supreme) labeled Palin a "political pick" and said excitement over her will subside.
Perhaps it already has.
