Aug 15, 2008 | 9:01 AM
Category:
Political
THE CLINTONS: “EXRACTING RANSOM”
It’d been a guessing game for weeks… what role did Barack Obama have in mind for the Clintons at the Democratic Convention – which starts Mon Aug 25 in Denver? We now have the answer… both the former president and the current senator from New York will get plum prime time speaking windows Much more important – although totally symbolic – is that the vanquished Hillary Clinton will be placed in nomination beside Obama.
It’s clearly a move to give her frustrated supporters a final chance to publically vent and hopefully – for the Democrats at least – to heal those divisive primary season wounds. So on the Wednesday night traditional state-by-state roll call vote… we’ll hear each delegation sing out with X number of votes for Obama and Y number of votes for Clinton. When that occurs, Clinton – herself a superdelegate who gets a vote – is expected to release her delegates to Obama, announce her support for him and ask her backers to do the same.
Yet while the fix is in – and Obama still gets the nomination and gives a thundering acceptance speech in the Denver Broncos football stadium the next night – all that high-profile Clinton action, spread over at least half of the convention’s four prime-time speaking nights, ensures an enormous presence for a super-power couple who have been national fixates in the Democratic Party since 1992.
There’s a big risk in this – one Obama would be keenly aware of – and that is the Clintons could wind up overshadowing him. In fact, the party has a history of other Democrats showing-up the guest of honor.
I remember that well while being in the hall in Boston when the keynote speaker – an up-till-then little known fellow named Barack Obama – seemed to get more love and better reviews than hometown nominee John Kerry. And remember it was Kerry who selected the up-and-comer to speak. That very morning, Obama stepped into the Fox 11 fourth-story broadcast skybox and extended his hand and it actually took me a few seconds to realize who he was (I wasn’t expecting to see him there). Back in ’88, Jesse Jackson stole Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis’ show in Atlanta and Ted Kennedy’s “dream will never die” speech brought down New York’s Madison Square Garden during Jimmy Carter’s 1980 soiree.
To try and guard against that, Obama’s keynote speaker – Mark Warner of Virginia – will deliver his address the same night Clinton does – Tue Aug 26 – while the ex-president shares the next day – Wed Aug 27 – with the yet-to-be-named vice presidential running mate. Then, as I mentioned, Obama triumphantly shuts it all down on Thr Aug 28 from the football field.
Fierce rivals then but wary allies now, Obama and Clinton agreed to put both their names into nomination after weeks of negotiations. They made the announcement yesterday (Thr Aug 14) in a collegial joint statement that noted that some 35 million people participated in the primary and that both wanted to “honor and celebrate these voices and votes.”
Obama probably really didn’t want it to play out this way – but in reality was left with little choice. He absolutely needs Clinton and her legion of loyalists.
Of the Clintons, Doug Muzzio, a professor of politics at Baruch College in New York, told the AP: “In a sense, they’ve got Obama hostage and are extracting their ransom” with their convention involvement.
Well said.
WORRISOME SIGNS FOR OBAMA
It was just last month that Time magazine was suggesting that John McCain was in danger of sliding down from a “long shot” to a “no shot.” Around the same time, a hard-noised former Clinton insider declared the race “effectively over” thanks to the McCain campaign’s ineptitude, the tanking of the American economy and Obama’s advantages in cash, charisma and hope. And Obama, up by three to six points nationally, was about to leverage a much-anticipated trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe into a pre-convention poll surge.
That might have been the script. But events haven’t played by that. Instead, Obama supporters seem to be suffering a kind of pre-Denver panic attack, watching as McCain draws incrementally closer in state and national polls – with Rasmussen’s most recent daily tracker showing a statistical dead heat.
Clinton’s pollster Mark Penn recently red-flagged Obama’s lukewarm leads among white female voters and Hispanics – while saying it would take only a five point swing to turn a presumed Obama win into a McCain landslide.
Obama’s aides point to the stability of his small national lead, say they aren’t worried about his summer stall and think his numbers will improve when voters begin tuning into the conventions. The campaign’s confidence may turn out to be justified but we’re now going into the week prior to the Democratic affair and there are definite worrisome signs for Obama.
Race is the unspoken one. It hurts me personally to say it, but doesn’t this come down to whether enough white people are going to support a black guy? As one political professor put it the other day: “If Obama was a tall, skinny white guy named Paul Jones this would be a different story.”
A major question remains: how much does Obama’s race factor into tightening contests in Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota and Ohio? Nobody knows – and that’s the problem.
A huge challenge for Obama, insiders say, is simply determining how much skin color will matter in November. Race is nearly impossible to poll – no one ever says “I’m a racist” – and no campaign wants it revealed they are even asking questions on the issue.
Obama’s strength in Virginia may be overhyped. His chances of ending the Democrats’ 44-year losing streak in the commonwealth are said by many there to be pretty good. But Obama campaign insiders have said privately his odds in Virginia are probably no better than 50-50 and that the state is far from a lock-solid hedge if he loses Ohio and Florida.
Michigan’s in play for McCain. In the year of the down turn, the hard-hit upper Midwest should be prime Obama country. Instead it’s a political minefield. Obama is still ahead by two to five points there – similar to margins of victory enjoyed by Gore and Kerry in the last two presidential contests – but McCain has quietly crept up over the past month. And I think he could vault ahead in Michigan if he picks native son and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for VP.
Yet another worry: Obama also hasn’t pulled away in other Democrat-friendly neighboring states, watching leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota erode over the past month.
Finally, bad times could be good for McCain. If anger helps Democrats, fear might give the advantage to the GOP. A growing number of Democratic strategists worry that some swing states may opt for McCain if the economy veers from merely awful to downright terrifying.
The good news for Obama, of course, is that McCain – who infamously admitted he “never understood” economics – is loathed by unions. And let’s face it, McCain was awash in ill-defined policy at the start of the housing meltdown and he has yet to come up with a coherent economic approach that doesn’t include the words “offshore drilling.”
But there’s only more thing: There are some pundits saying Americans may actually want a divided government. The thinking here is that a possible Democratic landslide in congressional races could backfire on Obama. A New York based political consultant was quoted – not by name, for obvious reasons – by Politico.com as saying: “Fairly or not, folks think he’s pretty liberal and nobody wants a pair of Pelosi’s running things.”
Former Nebraska senator and governor and presidential candidate himself Bob Kerrey adds: “The country’s still pretty divided… people may want a divided government. They want change but I’m not sure that the Democratic agenda has the support of a majority of Americans.”
Now, once again, time for your take. I’ll be blogging from the Fox 11 News HQ in Denver during the Democratic Convention. Of course, this time Obama isn’t going to wander up to our skybox with just one aide as he did in 2004. But just in case he does, I can assure you the recognition, on my part, will be instant.
