Oct 10, 2008 | 8:30 AM
Category:
Political
DEMOCRATIC LANDSLIDE?
A month of historic economic upheaval has done more than just tilt a handful of once-reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory on November 4th. Could they be right? They could well be wrong… but John McCain will have to steer his campaign back onto the road with punch and purpose to reverse the trend.
Here’s why the Dems are so gleeful: Four large states McCain once seemed well-positioned to win—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida—have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states—a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events—he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes. 270 Electoral College votes are what it takes to win the White House.
Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide. Politico.com says that would likely mean a sweep of the Southwestern swing states—Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada—not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri.
The dismal economy is clearly making the difference. The Gallup polling organization finds that 69 percent of Americans believe the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. The second most cited issue, the war in Iraq, is now listed as the number one concern by only 11 percent of voters.
And in the latest Gallup poll… Obama has opened a stunning 11 point national lead over McCain… 52 to 41… his largest edge of the entire campaign.
Obama hasn't relinquished the lead in the poll since he went ahead in late September, and he has trailed only during two periods since the start of the summer.
Obama's new high-water mark comes at a time when he has seized substantial leads in many of the battleground states that will determine the winner. He leads McCain 52-42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll in Wisconsin, a 2004 John Kerry state that McCain has made one of his top targets after pulling out of Michigan last week.
Obama's rise has coincided with massive spending on the TV airwaves, where he is relentlessly exploiting a money advantage. The New York Post reports Obama has outspent McCain and the Republican National Committee by nearly $7 million nationwide over the last week.
Yet if the Obama campaign really thinks it has a lock on the election, it’s making a mistake. Maybe a landslide is in the making – but maybe not. There are four weeks to go. A lot can happen. Maybe the Republicans will still manage an October surprise? Or perhaps the news will finally start breaking their way.
PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE #2
Now about this past week’s debate… the second McCain-Obama matchup. I agree with those who said beforehand that McCain really needed to come away with form it with a decided advantage. He didn’t.
McCain did come armed with an ambitious 300-billion dollar surprise plan to buy up the bad American mortgages that helped tip the global economy into crisis. But he phrased it as a headline… providing not a shred of detail. And that was a mistake. Even McCain’s spin room folks had trouble filling in the blanks. It was left to the Obama camp to contend the proposal was merely part of the $700 billion rescue plan. In an Obama aide’s words: “It was Obama, not McCain, who called for this move two weeks ago." Bottom line: the McCain plan, when he said it, sounded refreshing. He and his people should have been ready to sell it hard. They weren’t and they didn’t.
A CNN national poll after the debate found that 54 percent of those asked thought Obama won and 30 percent said McCain was victorious. A CBS survey also gave the debate to Obama -- 40 percent to 26 percent.
Obama seemed as comfortable as his rival in the "town-hall" format. McCain loves that format, but this time he looked uncomfortable pacing the stage at Nashville’s Belmont University (almost like a boxer in a ring) when it was Obama’s turn to speak.
McCain’s best moment came when he tapped the shoulder of a retired Navy man… a Chief Petty Officer who had just asked a question. McCain told him he learned what he knew about leadership from a Navy Chief. Honest, heartfelt words. (Chiefs really do run the Navy!).
On the other hand, McCain -- criticized for rarely looking at Obama during their first debate two weeks ago -- let his dislike of his opponent show again, when he referred to him as "that one" in a tense exchange over energy. Terrible choice of words.
So bottom line is that McCain came to Nashville hoping the second presidential debate would help him jar loose a campaign that for the past month has been about the economy, the economy and the economy.
He didn't get his wish.
Oct 3, 2008 | 8:40 AM
Category:
Political
MISSIONS
ACCOMPLISHED
The marching
orders were clear: Joe Biden’s goal was
to attack… and not be overbearing. Sarah
Palin's was to attack, connect, get the subject onto energy and off of the Bush
administration all while sticking to her folksy script.
Missions
accomplished! Both vice presidential
candidates succeeded in their only debate of the campaign last (Thursday)
night. Biden was strong, stronger than
long time Biden watchers say he’s been in any previous debate. But the stakes were much higher and the bar
was much lower for Palin. So, in the contest of low expectations, I’d say Palin
won.
If nothing
else, the first-term Alaska governor got past the raft of nonsensical and
meandering answers in network interviews with Katie Couric and Charlie Gibson,
the spoofs by Saturday Night Live and the mockery of late-night comics and
Internet websites and blogs.
From her
first words, a confident Palin sought to connect with conservative voters whose
confidence in her qualifications has waned. She used the buzz words and phrases that would
please the base. She sprinkled down-home
phrases throughout her answers — "bless their hearts" and "darn
right." Americans weren't just people they were "Joe Six-Pack"
and "Hockey Moms." And who needs polls, she suggested, when there are
youth soccer games with parents on the sidelines.
She defended
Republican presidential nominee John McCain from Biden's litany of criticisms,
and took Biden to task over both his record and that of Democratic nominee
Barack Obama.
And yet, it
wasn't a perfect performance. When she
didn’t know the answers or was unable to counter Biden’s superior knowledge of
facts and figures, she shifted to a well rehearsed non-answer or simply
resorted to her favorite subject of the night, energy.
For
instance, not even halfway through the debate, Palin was asked a question about
sub-prime mortgages. That was one of
several spots where she quickly maneuvered back to energy where she was clearly
more comfortable — and where she had her lines down. It appeared to be a
non-sequitur.
She twice
referred to the commanding U.S. general in Afghanistan as "General
McClellan." In fact, his name is
Gen. David McKiernan and, as Biden said, he called this week for the U.S. and
its allies to rush more troops "as quickly as possible" to Afghanistan
and warn that the fighting there could worsen before it gets better.
She was
adept at not answering questions and stuck to breezy sound bites, frequently
looking to her notes. She criticized Biden and Obama with a smile and her
Alaska accent.
Palin's head
bobbed up and down from notes on her podium to Biden as she resurrected — and
listed — his disagreements with Obama on the Iraq war.
Biden was
critical from the start, accusing President Bush of overseeing "the worst
economic policies we've ever had." Often tagged as undisciplined, Biden
stuck to the Democratic script.
When Biden
repeatedly listed failings of the Bush administration on domestic and foreign
policy, she responded that Biden was just looking at the past and that a
McCain-Palin administration would bring the change America craves.
But where
she was strong (on energy, for instance), she did sound convincing. Best of all
for the McCain campaign machine, she didn’t stumble. Didn’t hit any foul balls. She was evasive at times, but what politician
isn’t?
In the end,
Palin did nothing to hurt McCain’s effort – but I don’t think she really helped
him either. Biden, according to various
instant polls, seems to have helped Obama with undecided voters. In the
end, that’s all that will really matter.
QUICKIE
POLLS LEAN TO BIDEN
A CBS News-Knowledge
Networks poll surveyed 473 uncommitted voters nationwide and found 46 percent
of them saying Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Sarah
Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.
Eighteen
percent of previously uncommitted percent say they are now committed to the
Obama-Biden ticket. Ten percent say they are now committed to McCain-Palin.
Seventy-one percent are still uncommitted.
CNN/Opinion Research Corp. said 51 percent of those polled thought Biden did
the best job, while 36 percent thought Palin did the best job. Survey participants thought that while Biden
won, Palin exceeded expectations.
Respondents also found the folksy Palin was more likable, scoring 54
percent to Biden's 36 percent. Seventy percent said Biden was more of a typical
politician.
Eighty-four
percent of those taking part in the CNN poll said Palin did a better job than
they expected, while 64 percent said Biden also exceeded expectations.
THE FACTS
AND FALSEHOODS
Some facts
floated out the window during the vice presidential debate… facts about taxes,
deregulation and more. The Associated
Press provides some examples:
PALIN: Said
of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama: "94 times he voted to
increase taxes or not support a tax reduction."
THE FACTS: The
dubious count includes repetitive votes as well as votes to cut taxes for the
middle class while raising them on the rich. An analysis by factcheck.org found
that 23 of the votes were for measures that would have produced no tax increase
at all, seven were in favor of measures that would have lowered taxes for many,
11 would have increased taxes on only those making more than $1 million a year.
___
BIDEN:
Complained about "economic policies of the last eight years" that led
to "excessive deregulation."
THE FACTS:
Biden voted for 1999 deregulation that liberal groups are blaming for part of
the financial crisis. The law allowed Wall Street investment banks to create
the kind of mortgage-related securities at the core of the problem now. The law
was widely backed by Republicans as well as by Democratic President Clinton,
who argues it has stopped the crisis today from being worse.
___
PALIN:
"Two years ago, remember, it was John McCain who pushed so hard with the
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reform measures. He sounded that warning bell."
THE FACTS:
Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska led an effort in 2005 to tighten
regulation on the mortgage underwriters — McCain joined as a co-sponsor a year
later. The legislation was never taken up by the full Senate, then under
Republican control.
___
BIDEN:
Warned that Republican presidential candidate John McCain's $5,000 tax credit
to help families buy health coverage "will go straight to the insurance
company."
THE FACTS:
Of course it would, because it's meant to pay for insurance. That's like saying
money for a car loan will go straight to the car dealer.
___
PALIN:
"We cannot afford to lose against al-Qaida and the Shia extremists who are
still there, still fighting us."
THE FACTS:
She appeared to confuse the two main Muslim sects in Iraq. Al-Qaida is solely
made up of Sunni Muslim militants. Through the course of the war, U.S. forces
fought ferocious opposition from both the Sunnis and the country's dominant
Shiite sects. Now, both groups are largely maintaining a cease-fire with the
U.S. A much-diminished al-Qaida, mainly foreign fighters, remains the primary
threat.
___
BIDEN: Said
McCain supports tax breaks for oil companies, and "wants to give them
another $4 billion tax cut."
THE FACTS:
Biden is repeating a favorite saw of the Obama campaign, and it's misleading.
McCain supports a cut in income taxes for all corporations, and doesn't single
out any one industry for that benefit.
___
PALIN: Said
the United States has reduced its troop level in Iraq to a number below where
it was when the troop increase began in early 2007.
THE FACTS:
Not correct. The Pentagon says there are currently 152,000 U.S. troops in Iraq,
about 17,000 more than there were before the 2007 military buildup began.
___
BIDEN:
"As a matter of fact, John recently wrote an article in a major magazine
saying that he wants to do for the health care industry — deregulate it and let
the free market move — like he did for the banking industry."
THE FACTS:
Biden and Obama have been perpetuating this distortion of what McCain wrote in
an article for the American Academy of Actuaries. McCain, laying out his health
plan, only referred to deregulation when saying people should be allowed to buy
health insurance across state lines. In that context, he wrote: "Opening
up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we
have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of
innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation."
___
PALIN: Said
Alaska is "building a nearly $40 billion natural gas pipeline, which is
North America's largest and most expensive infrastructure project ever to flow
those sources of energy into hungry markets."
THE FACTS:
Not quite. Construction is at least six years away. So far the state has only
awarded a license to Trans Canada Corp., that comes with $500 million in seed
money in exchange for commitments toward a lengthy and costly process to
getting a federal certificate. At an August news conference after the state
Legislature approved the license, Palin said, "It's not a done deal."
___
PALIN:
"Barack Obama even supported increasing taxes as late as last year for
those families making only $42,000 a year."
BIDEN:
"The charge is absolutely not true. Barack Obama did not vote to raise
taxes. The vote she's referring to, John McCain voted the exact same way."
THE FACTS:
The vote was on a nonbinding budget resolution that assumed that President
Bush's tax cuts would expire, as scheduled, in 2011. If that actually happened,
it could mean higher taxes for people making as little as about $42,000. But
Obama is proposing tax increases only on the wealthy, and would cut taxes for
most others. In the March 14 budget resolution supported by Obama and Biden,
McCain actually did not vote.
___
PALIN: Said
a McCain-Palin administration "will support Israel," including
"building our embassy ... in Jerusalem."
THE FACTS:
Moving the U.S. Embassy from its present location in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem is a
perennial promise of presidential candidates courting the Jewish-American vote.
In fact, moving the embassy is actually required by U.S. law. But successive
administrations of both parties, including President Bush's, have made the same
pledge only to find that the realities of Middle East peacemaking have forced
them to invoke a waiver to delay it. Jerusalem is claimed as a capital by both
Israel and the Palestinians, and Israel's occupation of east Jerusalem is not
internationally recognized. The city's status is a key issue of disagreement in
peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.
___
Again, those
facts and falsehoods are from the Associated Press. Now, standby for Presidential Debate #2, coming up next Tuesday. And it is amazing to think that we’re finally
just one month from Election Day.
Sep 26, 2008 | 7:59 AM
Category:
Political
WHAT A WEEK!
Lots of big and unexpected political maneuvering this week. You’ve been keeping up with news of a threatened debate delay, while both major candidates parachuted into the teetering negotiations over the $700 billion bailout bill. Did their bailout summit with the president in the Cabinet Room help or hurt? It was supposed to be a bipartisan approach, but hasn’t turned out that way.
All this, including the on-and-off tentative agreement on the massive government resuscitation of sagging banks and brokerages is still playing out as I write this. So, instead, let me draw your attention to three other trends… one of them particularly troubling.
RACIAL MISGIVINGS COULD COST OBAMA THE WHITE HOUSE
Three interesting surveys on the American political mood are out from the folks at the Associated Press and Yahoo News. I found the most interesting – and most disturbing – showing that racial views are steering some white Democrats away from Barack Obama.
In fact, these deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close. The AP-Yahoo survey found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent," responsible for their own troubles.
The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points.
Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.
More than a third of all white Democrats and independents — voters Obama can't win the White House without — agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.
Such numbers are a harsh dose of reality in a campaign for the history books. Obama, the first black candidate with a serious shot at the presidency, accepted the Democratic nomination on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have a Dream" speech, a seminal moment for a nation that enshrined slavery in its Constitution.
Stanford political scientist Paul Snider – who helped analyze exhaustive study – had a sharp, but realistic take: "There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there are only a few bigots."
Will the November 4 presidential election really come down to the question of how many whites will pull the lever or punch their ballot card for a black man? Very sadly, it just might.
THE STUBBORN HILLARY VOTERS
Another chapter of the AP-Yahoo polling shows Obama's support from backers of Hillary Clinton is stuck smack where it was in June, a stunning lack of progress that is weakening him with members of the Democratic Party in the close presidential race.
Among adults who backed his rival during their bitter primary campaign, 58 percent now support Obama. That is the same percentage who said so in June, when Clinton ended her bid and urged her backers to line up behind the Democratic senator from Illinois.
The poll shows that while Obama has gained ground among Clinton's supporters — 69 percent view him favorably now, up 9 percentage points from June — this has yet to translate into more of their support.
In part, this is because their positive views of McCain have also improved during this period. This reluctance by Clinton backers' to support Obama helps explain why he is having a tougher time rallying members of his own party. Overall, 74 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Obama, 87 percent of Republicans say they are committed to McCain.
The problem Clinton supporters have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues. From establishing a timeline for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq to abortion to canceling tax cuts on the rich, their views of the importance of issues are virtually identical to Democrats in general.
Yet they find Obama less likable, honest, experienced and inspiring than Democrats overall do, and have a better view of McCain. And that is a big problem for Barack Obama.
THE UNDECIDED: STILL NOT SATISFIED WITH EITHER MAJOR CANDIDATE
And the final set of results from this same sampling finds that with Wall Street in turmoil and the economy in shambles, whichever presidential candidate convinces a swath of persuadable voters that he gets it — and can be trusted to lead the country back to fiscal stability — could well win the White House.
AP-Yahoo! finds 18 percent of likely voters are up for grabs — undecided or willing to change their minds — just five weeks before Americans choose between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.
A large chunk of these voters say they are hurting on a personal level from the country's economic woes, and, like everyone else, they say the economy is the top issue. Most haven't decided who would best solve their problems as president; neither candidate has an advantage on handling the economy.
Simply put: Most are looking for a better life and a leader to help make it happen — and most haven't found what they seek in Obama or McCain.
Historically, the ruling party loses the White House when the economy is bad, and it's rare for voters to keep the same party in power for three straight terms. But the poll shows that Obama still hasn't sealed the deal and McCain still has a shot after eight years of President Bush.
National surveys indicate a competitive race, meaning persuadable voters could affect the outcome. Thus, both campaigns are pouring millions of dollars into advertising with precisely targeted pitches aimed at this small slice of the electorate.
The key to unlocking the support of persuadable voters may be this: convincing them that one candidate alone has the ability to identify, understand and fix the country's ills, especially the economy.
For better or worse, the election is still more than a month away, and that's plenty of time for voters to settle on a candidate — or change their minds.
Sep 19, 2008 | 8:08 AM
Category:
Political
BIG MO STARTS TO SWING BACK OBAMA’S WAY
The party conventions and the Sarah Palin surge behind them, Barack Obama and John McCain are neck and neck again in their race for the White House. Indications are – however – that both the momentum and the political environment are tilting toward Camp Obama.
The next most likely chance for change lies with the upcoming televised debates. And the first one of those comes up next Fri Sep 26. It will be in Oxford, Mississippi at the University of Mississippi. The topics: foreign policy and national security. The debate will be formatted into nine nine-minute segments, with the moderator introducing the topics.
Just looking ahead, the Vice Presidential Debate is set for Thr Oct 2 at Washington University in St. Louis. The second presidential debate is set for Tue Oct 7 in Nashville with the third on Wed Oct 15 in Hempstead, New York at Hofstra University on domestic and economic policy. Like the first debate, this one’s to be formatted into nine nine-minute segments.
In recent days, Democrat Obama has seemed to regain his footing amid Wall Street's chaos and a renewed focus on the economy, a Democratic strength with a Republican in the White House. Also, McCain's late-summer boost, credited to his choice of Palin as his running mate, appears to be dissipating.
THE POLLS
A flurry of national polls now show Obama even or slightly ahead of McCain depending on the survey. The race to reach 270 Electoral College votes, however, remains extraordinarily close in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and other key states.
Let’s run through poll results (as of Thursday night) in those and other battlegrounds. I am citing the Real Clear Politics average of these state by state surveys. McCain leads by 4.5% in Florida, 1.5% in Ohio, 2.3% in Virginia, 6.6% in Missouri and 1% in Nevada. Obama is ahead by 1.3% in Pennsylvania, 2.3% in Michigan and Wisconsin, 3.3% in New Hampshire, 2.5% in Colorado, and 4.3% in New Mexico.
Here in California – no surprise – Obama is well ahead, with an RCP average lead of 12.6%
WHY OBAMA HAS STRUGGLED
By most indicators, this is an election year made for Democrats.
Most people think the country is headed the wrong direction, and they are very sour on Bush. The nation is at war and in economic straits. History shows voters are reluctant to keep a political party in office for three straight terms, and people are hungry for change.
Even so, Obama has struggled to stake out a significant lead. He has been fighting to reassure voters who continue to be troubled by these points: He is a first-term senator from Chicago with a foreign-sounding name, has black skin and a liberal voting record.
Yet Obama spent much of the summer driving the campaign agenda.
Then, McCain – in the start of a series of hard-hitting TV ads -- painted him as a celebrity who offered little but soaring rhetoric. Many Democrats worried that their guy wasn’t hitting back hard enough, soon enough. Memories came flooding back of John Kerry’s wobbly and ultimately losing campaign four years ago.
McCain entered the fall having energized the party's conservative base with his Palin pick while wielding a message of change. Polls showed an uptick in overall support as women swung toward the Republican team. Yet it’s hard to believe Palin is really picking up more than a very few Hillary Clinton diehards. Their politics are so different.
"IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID"
As the days went by early this month, Obama's campaign appeared unsure how to respond as questions of character and personality dominated the dialogue. Party insiders openly urged Obama to return to the one issue that Democrats have had an edge on for months — the economy.
Then, financial institutions began failing and of course the stock market tumbled this week. Obama was quick to blame Bush policies and argued McCain would offer the same. He empathized with a smarting public.
McCain, meantime, has stumbled — at, perhaps, the worst possible time. As markets nose-dived, the Arizona senator made his oft-repeated assertion that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong." Democrats called him out of touch and just like Bush.
VIEWING RUSSIA FROM HOME
Then fellow Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel didn’t do McCain any favors by calling it a "stretch" to say Palin has the experience needed to be president if necessary and added: "She doesn't have any foreign policy credentials." That very funny Saturday Night Live parody by Tina Fey last weekend had her Palin character countering by saying: “I can see Russia from my house.”
And, while he didn't question her qualifications, Bush's former political guru Karl Rove (and party operative supreme) labeled Palin a "political pick" and said excitement over her will subside.
Perhaps it already has.
Sep 12, 2008 | 7:40 AM
Category:
Political
SHADES OF LIPSTICK TINT A RACE
This Political Week has been quite a week for lipstick. Of course by now, everyone knows Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska introduced herself to the Republican Convention as John McCain’s running mate by answering her own question: What’s the difference between a pit bull and a hockey mom, which is how she typically describes herself? Of course, you know her answer: “Lipstick.” It instantly became the big line of the GOP confab.
The sound bite has been re-run and re-run. This week, in Pennsylvania, Senator Barack Obama made his own lipstick allusion, drawing on a very old comparison as he derided McCain and the Republicans for now embracing the “change” mantle that’s become a cornerstone of his own campaign. Obama: “John McCain says he’s about change, too – except for economic policy, health care policy, tax policy, education policy, foreign policy and Karl Rove-style politics. That’s not change. That’s just calling the same thing something different. You can put lipstick on a pig – it’s still a pig.”
Now Obama didn’t mention Palin until later in his speech… but the lipstick and pig reference was enough to get a big howl from the McCain troops who called it “disgraceful” and “sexist” and demanded an apology.
As my Fox 11 News colleague Jeff Michael noted on the air the other night: “Obama: Note to self… lipstick smears easily.”
But the Obama campaign was ready to fire back… offering up a year-ago quote by McCain in which he was criticizing a health care plan by Senator Hillary Clinton. Said McCain then: “I think they put some lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig.”
And before things quieted down for the Day of Remembrance yesterday (Thursday), Obama was accusing McCain’s campaign of using "lies and phony outrage and Swift-boat politics.” In turn, conservative commentators on radio and TV were treating the lipstick and pig issue as the potential breaking point for Obama’s campaign.
Oink!
For me, it’s far too little, too early to be a long range turning point.
The same can be said for the “bridge to nowhere” federal dollar earmark – the one Sarah Palin was for before she was against. The one that Palin says over and over again that she told Congress “thanks but no thanks.” The facts show she actually didn’t tell Congress anything about the bridge. It’s a bit of an issue for the Democrats but it won’t have long mileage traction.
OBAMA NOW PLAYING DEFENSE AGAINST MCCAIN
Away from bridges and pigs now… Obama did find himself in a position this week he hasn't been in during many long months of campaigning — on defense against Republican rival John McCain.
With just over seven weeks left in the race, the candidates are now running even in most polls, money and, it seems, even rank-and-file enthusiasm — all fronts where Obama had led for months.
At the same time, Iraq, the issue that anti-war Obama successfully used during the primaries, has faded to the background. The economy is voters' primary concern but, on that topic, too, McCain has made gains to start leveling the playing field.
All this, despite an election season in which the sour mood of voters and their thirst for a new direction are just two of several advantages for Democrats trying to recapture the White House after eight years of Republican rule.
With voters craving change and Obama offering it, McCain has started pushing hard to reclaim the reformer mantle he owned eight years ago. That leaves Obama, the change candidate of the primaries, spending much of his time explaining to voters why McCain and Palin don't deserve the label.
On Monday in Detroit, Obama declared: "How do they have the nerve to say it? When you've been supporting this current president, your party has been in power, and you're not offering anything new, how is it that you're serious about change? You're not. It's empty words.”
That was a lead-up to the “lipstick on a pig” line the next day. But Democrats clearly have to be worried that the Republican ticket is gaining, and in no small part because of the addition of the first-term Alaska governor who is the first Republican woman on a presidential ticket.
A CNN-Opinion Research Corp. poll finds nearly six in 10 people view Palin favorably, and about a third say she was an excellent choice as the GOP's vice presidential nominee. That's a bit higher than said the same about Obama's vice presidential choice, Democratic Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.
THE FIRST PALIN INTERVIEW
Toward the end of the week, Palin did her first one-on-one media interview since accepting the nomination. In talking to ABC’s Charlie Gibson, she defended her qualifications but struggled with foreign policy. For one thing, she couldn’t describe President Bush's doctrine of pre-emptive strikes against threatening nations and admitted she's never met a foreign head of state.
She was very well prepped. And when she met a Gibson question she didn’t like, she handled it by shifting topics and answering a hypothetical question she would have preferred (a ploy most politicians attempt, with varying degrees of success).
Palin told Gibson "I'm ready" to be president if called upon. However, she managed to keep sidestepping his queries about whether she really had the national security credentials needed to be commander in chief.
Despite some stumbles and less than knowledgeable answers, Palin and her new boss can – overall -- afford to be very happy with September, at least so far.
RON PAUL: NOT ENDORSING FELLOW REPUBLICAN
And this week also saw Republican, but libertarian-leaning Texas Congressman Ron Paul resurface. You’ll recall Paul attracted a devoted following in the GOP primaries, but when that season ended he never endorsed his party’s standard bearer. He now says he’s been courted by a GOP big… who tried to convince him now is the time to publically support McCain. Paul refused.
Interestingly, Paul said the request had came from Phil Gramm, the former McCain adviser and ex-senator whom the campaign jettisoned after he said
the country was a "nation of whiners" about the economy. It was Paul who Gramm defeated Republican primary for the Senate in 1984.
Paul says Gramm’s prime sales point was that McCain “would do less harm than the other candidate." Now that is wimpy.
Certainly Gramm would have preferred that remark to remain private. But it didn’t, with Paul revealing the conversation during a news conference with three third-party candidates: independent Ralph Nader; former Georgia Democratic Rep. Cynthia McKinney, the Green Party candidate; and Chuck Baldwin, the
Constitution Party candidate.
Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, was invited but said at his own news conference later that he declined because Paul didn't endorse one candidate.
Indeed he didn’t. Paul said voters should consider all the third party choices… but didn’t back any single one of them.
Paul has called the presidential elections a charade and said voters are faced with the "lesser of two evils."
Think he’s right?
Sep 5, 2008 | 12:11 PM
Category:
Political
A GOP CONVENTION WITH VERY NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
Another Republican Convention is history. It was different on a lot of scores, being indirectly buffeted on the front end by Hurricane Gustav, and then making history in the middle with the confirmation of the party’s first female VP candidate, but it also set a different standard throughout.
The Republican Party runs the White House now but acted through most of the week as if it doesn’t. Senator John McCain was variously described as a “restless reformer who will clean up Washington” and as a future president going to the capital to “drain that swamp.” Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin describes her mission with McCain as “change, the goal we share.”
McCain accepted the Republican nomination for president as he and his prime backers invoked the call to topple the establishment, even though their party heads the establishment. The present occupant of the Oval Office received nothing much more than a backhanded salute. George W. Bush was given an eight minute satellite TV appearance on Tuesday (which played to the hall before the broadcast networks began their live coverage) and Vice President Dick Cheney was ignored.
In his speech last night, McCain thanked “the president” for leading the country “in those dark days” and for “keeping us safe from another attack” but never named him. And he never made either a direct or indirect to Bush again. As for the improved situation in Iraq, he credited that remarkable general, David Petraeus.
It was fascinating but of course, McCain had little choice. The Bush Administration is an albatross he needs to free from his neck if he is to defeat the Democrats. His acceptance speech was honest and straight forward. I found it refreshing that he didn’t use the specially elongated stage as the place to take on the role of attack dog. After all that had been left to the other GOP bright lights – including Gov. Palin -- who took the stage earlier in the week. Instead, the Republican standard-bearer portrayed himself as a fighter, and he brought some fight to a party that had seemed unsure of its footing.
Overall, the week saw the Republican Party set off on the right foot – playing heavily to the base while trying hard to attract new voters. No one was better at it than the woman relatively few in the country had heard of until a week ago today (Friday). Sarah Palin – depending on your party – can be seen to have accomplished much on two fronts. She lit a fire under smoldering delegates with her life story, then a solid bombardment of the Democrats and a bashing of the media. At the same time, she was motivating Democrats, who – according to their party – pumped $10 million more dollars into the Obama-Biden campaign war chest in just one day after she spoke.
Palin is an attractive woman who really knows how to deliver a speech. Sneering and smiling at the same time. There are few politicians in the world who can bring that off so well. Palin and her Republican supporters held back little in their dismissive attacks on Barack Obama and flattering praise on her credentials to be vice president.
But the Associated Press has taken a close look at what she and others said this week and how in some cases both their attacks and their praise stretched the truth.
The rest of this blog is from that AP account, which effectively cites these examples:
PALIN: "I have protected the taxpayers by vetoing wasteful spending ... and championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending by Congress. I told the Congress 'thanks but no thanks' for that Bridge to Nowhere."
THE FACTS: As mayor of Wasilla, Palin hired a lobbyist and traveled to Washington annually to support earmarks for the town totaling $27 million. In her two years as governor, Alaska has requested nearly $750 million in special federal spending, by far the largest per-capita request in the nation. While Palin notes she rejected plans to build a $398 million bridge from Ketchikan to an island with 50 residents and an airport, that opposition came only after the plan was ridiculed nationally as a "bridge to nowhere."
PALIN: "There is much to like and admire about our opponent. But listening to him speak, it's easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or reform — not even in the state senate."
THE FACTS: Compared to McCain and his two decades in the Senate, Obama does have a more meager record. But he has worked with Republicans to pass legislation that expanded efforts to intercept illegal shipments of weapons of mass destruction and to help destroy conventional weapons stockpiles. The legislation became law last year. To demean that accomplishment would be to also demean the work of Republican Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, a respected foreign policy voice in the Senate. In Illinois, he was the leader on two big, contentious measures in Illinois: studying racial profiling by police and requiring recordings of interrogations in potential death penalty cases. He also successfully co-sponsored major ethics reform legislation.
PALIN: "The Democratic nominee for president supports plans to raise income taxes, raise payroll taxes, raise investment income taxes, raise the death tax, raise business taxes, and increase the tax burden on the American people by hundreds of billions of dollars."
THE FACTS: The Tax Policy Center, a think tank run jointly by the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute, concluded that Obama's plan would increase after-tax income for middle-income taxpayers by about 5 percent by 2012, or nearly $2,200 annually. McCain's plan, which cuts taxes across all income levels, would raise after tax-income for middle-income taxpayers by 3 percent, the center concluded.
Obama would provide $80 billion in tax breaks, mainly for poor workers and the elderly, including tripling the Earned Income Tax Credit for minimum-wage workers and higher credits for larger families.
He also would raise income taxes, capital gains and dividend taxes on the wealthiest. He would raise payroll taxes on taxpayers with incomes above $250,000, and he would raise corporate taxes. Small businesses that make more than $250,000 a year would see taxes rise.
MCCAIN: "She's been governor of our largest state, in charge of 20 percent of America's energy supply ... She's responsible for 20 percent of the nation's energy supply. I'm entertained by the comparison and I hope we can keep making that comparison that running a political campaign is somehow comparable to being the executive of the largest state in America," he said in an interview with ABC News' Charles Gibson.
THE FACTS: McCain's phrasing exaggerates both claims. Palin is governor of a state that ranks second nationally in crude oil production, but she's no more "responsible" for that resource than President Bush was when he was governor of Texas, another oil-producing state. In fact, her primary power is the ability to tax oil, which she did in concert with the Alaska Legislature. And where Alaska is the largest state in America, McCain could as easily have called it the 47th largest state — by population.
MCCAIN: "She's the commander of the Alaska National Guard. ... She has been in charge, and she has had national security as one of her primary responsibilities," he said on ABC.
THE FACTS: While governors are in charge of their state guard units, that authority ends whenever those units are called to actual military service. When guard units are deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan, for example, they assume those duties under "federal status," which means they report to the Defense Department, not their governors. Alaska's national guard units have a total of about 4,200 personnel, among the smallest of state guard organizations.
FORMER ARKANSAS GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE: Palin "got more votes running for mayor of Wasilla, Alaska than Joe Biden got running for president of the United States."
THE FACTS: A whopper. Palin got 616 votes in the 1996 mayor's election, and got 909 in her 1999 re-election race, for a total of 1,525. Biden dropped out of the race after the Iowa caucuses, but he still got 76,165 votes in 23 states and the District of Columbia where he was on the ballot during the 2008 presidential primaries.
FORMER MASSACHUSETTS GOV. MITT ROMNEY: "We need change, all right — change from a liberal Washington to a conservative Washington! We have a prescription for every American who wants change in Washington — throw out the big-government liberals, and elect John McCain and Sarah Palin."
THE FACTS: A Back-to-the-Future moment. George W. Bush, a conservative Republican, has been president for nearly eight years. And until last year, Republicans controlled Congress. Only since January 2007 have Democrats have been in charge of the House and Senate.
The AP's take on the facts versus the rhetoric.
Aug 30, 2008 | 2:40 PM
Category:
Political
What a political week this was… starting with the Democrats still fretting over what, if anything, the most ardent Hillary Clinton supporters might do to disrupt Barack Obama’s coronation and ending with the dramatic news that John McCain had picked as his running mate a woman from Alaska with zero national political experience.
From conversations with political wise sages in Denver yesterday to a chat with my neighbor Ray over the fence back home in L.A. this morning, the question was: what do you think of McCain’s choice of freshman Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his #2.
Yes, John McCain, who argues with a straight face that Barack Obama's 12 years in the Illinois legislature and U.S. Senate aren't enough to qualify him to run for president, has picked a running mate who just two years ago was serving as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, population 5,470.
In short, the presumptive Republican nominee, an Old Soldier in all senses of that term, drafted the political equivalent of the Unknown Soldier as his co-pilot.
McCain's pick of Palin jettisons his attack that Obama isn't ready to lead and looks more like a desperate "Hail Mary" campaign tactic aimed at female voters. A “Hail Sarah” as a Democrat told me in Denver yesterday.
Governors can be grand on presidential tickets… just look how well these former state chief executives excelled on the national stage: Presidents Clinton, Reagan and both Roosevelts. Each had extensive executive experience in running a state – which like a company had a complex budget. But Sarah Palin has been in office for less than two years and remains a neophyte in her own statehouse, let alone in the national arena.
Worse, the Alaska Legislature voted last month to investigate allegations that Palin dismissed the state's public safety commissioner after that official resisted pressure to fire a state trooper involved in a contentious divorce from Palin's sister.
The legislature has hired a former district attorney to investigate the troubling allegations and report by Oct. 31 — just before the Nov. 4 general election.
Talk about an October surprise. Has McCain harnessed himself to a political time bomb?
Clearly her selection is a desperate effort to court the still irritated Clinton voters. But if McCain intends his running mate to be a bridge to supporters of the superbly qualified New York senator, Palin's lack of credentials and her hard-line anti-abortion stance will be tremendous roadblocks.
So bottom line in my view… McCain shines in timing, introducing his surprise VP choice the morning after Obama’s big stadium show in Denver… quickly changing the court of the political conversation. But his age – 72 yesterday -- is a major issue and his choice of such an inexperienced #2 can easily come back to bite him.
Speaking of timing, Hurricane Gustav – now at Category 3 as it roars over western Cuba and takes aim at the Gulf Coast – has the potential of being a convention killer for the Republicans. What’s the GOP’s plan B, C or D? Will George W. Bush skip St. Paul to actually pay attention to the hurricane’s potential victims this time… instead of his gigantic Katrina fumble?
It should be a great news week… and Fox 11’s reporter Phil Shuman, photographer-editor Greg Montemurro and producer John Simerson will be in St. Paul, starting today, to blog and broadcast it all.
Of course, I was on our team that spent the week covering the Democrats in Denver. So some final thoughts on Obamarama, since I didn’t get the chance to blog yesterday.
As Barack Obama took the stage on the 50-yard line to a blinding flicker of flashbulbs, there was an 84-thousand fan roar befitting a Denver Broncos touchdown. Invesco Field was literally rocked by that. I can tell you… I was underneath the stands, working on John Schwada’s lead story for that night and the whole metal framework rattled.
The thunder above my head was the culmination of a marathon political carnival that bore little resemblance to any convention finale that had come before.
The night sky brought an air of majesty to replace the summery festival feel of the late afternoon. Earlier, I was topside in the stadium when singer/songwriter Michael McDonald sang America the Beautiful. Tens of thousands of American flags waved… thousands sang. I found it very emotional, enough to bring a tear. It was, for me, the golden moment of the Democratic Convention – a salute to our country that transcended political lines. I am grateful to have been there.
Personal thanks to John Schwada and rapid-fire photographer-editor Darryl Kim for a great week of hard work and much accomplishment.
Finally, a word of appreciation to law enforcement in Denver, federal and local. The Secret Service agents who had their hands full guarding their “protectees” and screening all the rest of us were unfailingly courteous, even in the hot sun of Sunday when we were dragging our heavy equipment cases in a long line to pass the dog sniff test.
And then there was Sergeant Mike O’Donnell from the Denver Police Gang Bureau. He was just outside Invesco Field when our long day and night wrapped up at 12:30AM Friday. We had no easy way to get back to our Pepsi Center workspace from the Stadium, about a mile and a half away. No cabs, no private cars. We had to be back there in just few hours for Good Day L.A. live shots. Would we have roll all our stuff through a dark and rough Denver neighborhood? Sergeant O’Donnell saved the day… bundling us all into his unmarked police car, helping us stack all the broadcast gear onto our laps, then getting us to where we needed to go.
That’s the four of us after our ride. Sergeant Mike (second from left) you’re the man!
Aug 28, 2008 | 12:49 PM
Category:
Political
DENVER -- Drop into the Pepsi Center today and you see nothing but workers... tearing down (over only a couple of days) the Democratic National Convention backdrop, rigging, podium, cameras, lights, stacks of laptops, and thousands of miles of cables that took weeks to put up.
That's because the Democrats' big Denver show rolls about a mile and a half away to Invesco Field (which the locals also call Mile High Stadium) for Barack Obama's big wrapup speech.
Showmanship? Sure. Just check out the Roman column facade. Will this just fan the Republican argument that Obama is nothing much more than a rock star. Sure. But showmanship and celebrity play well. And the Democrats decision to take their big closing night to a 75-thousand seat arena was a smart one. Oh sure, the media is bitching... moving all this stuff just for one night. But this isn't about inconvenience for us.
It's about Barack Obama using the most public of platforms to tell his story... to weave the personal with the political as he tells the football stadium crowd -- and millions more at home -- how as president he would make a difference in their lives.
Aides call his address accepting the Democratic presidential
nomination a "direct conversation" with Americans on what's at stake and the risks of putting another Republican in the White House.
It will be quite a show tonight, almost six hours worth.... entertainment from Stevie Wonder and Sheryl Crowe among others... lots of warm up speeches, including one by Al Gore... but the headliner will, of course, be Obama... and his speech begins starts at 8P Denver time... 10P in the east, 7P in the west.
Republican John McCain – whose big show comes next week in Minnesota – says today he's still not ready to name his running mate... although that could happen tomorrow... in an effort to try and blunt the bounce Obama will have coming out of tonight.
Finally just a word about last night. After days of suspense over whether Clinton supporters would fall in line behind Obama when the roll call of the states was called, it all fell into place in the end for Obama. A nicely done piece of cheoreography. Illinois -- Obama's home state -- passing the torch to New York. That's when Hillary Clinton herself stepped forward to propose that Obama be declared the nominee by acclamation. The convention roared its approval.
Bill Clinton spoke... a masterful performance (by far the best speech of this convention so far)... then Obama's VP pick, Joe Biden. The night ended with Obama himself on stage. Republicans watching at home would have been hooting. But in reality it played well. The Democrats had pulled off a flawless day and night.
The GOP just shrugged. Just wait, McCain's people say, for our Democrat-bashing four-day party, starting Monday in St. Paul.
It is interesting to note, however, that the Republicans kick off on Labor Day... burying their unpopular President and Vice President on that first night when few will be watching. They are smart to do that.
Part of the big story next week in Minneapolis-St. Paul will be the demonstrators... left wingers of every stripe will attempt to clog the streets. There were relatively few marches here in Denver, no violence. As someone remarked to me last night, all the Denver demonstrators were all ready inside the hall.
Aug 27, 2008 | 1:42 PM
Category:
Political
DENVER – So it's Day 3 here... and
tonight at 7P Denver time all eyes at the Democratic convention will
be on Bill Clinton, as the former president and one-time darling of
the party seeks to put aside months of hard feelings by backing
Barack Obama. His speech will really be one to watch... as he's
been a thorn in Barack Obama's hide for months and it seems to me
he's still a bitter man, angrier than his wife that Obama arrived on
the scene to seize the nomination Bill Clinton thought was hers.
So Bill Clinton's ill-tempered feud
with the Obama campaign has stopped him from offering a full-throated
endorsement of the new party standard bearer. It will be painful
him no doubt, but party etiquette says he has to deliver and I think
there's no doubt he will.
Act two of the Clinton melodrama at the
convention will come a day after Obama's former primary rival Hillary
Clinton stirred a rapturous reception and ordered her army of
millions of supporters to back the party ticket.
Delegates will also create a piece of
history, by going through a formal roll-call to enshrine the Illinois
senator, 47, as the party's White House candidate, making him the
first ever black presidential nominee.
Obama 's vice presidential nominee
Joseph Biden meanwhile is set to deliver his keynote speech, likely
to hammer the convention's Wednesday theme of national security, and
to highlight his tragedy-scarred life story.
One more thing about Bill Clinton,
there is some chatter around here that he won't be attending Obama's
acceptance speech, due to be delivered before more than 70,000
supporters in the open air Invesco Field football stadium tomorrow
night.
If there are no camera cutaways of a
smiling, clapping former President Clinton that could be considered a
snub.
So lots still to watch for... as this
convention reaches its mid-point.
Aug 25, 2008 | 4:51 AM
Category:
Political
DENVER -- It's a photo show for you this time... to give you some sense of visions captured and experiences had during our second day in the Democratic Capital (at least for this week).... Denver.
You can find Obama mania everywhere here... the political keepsakes being hawked on many street corners... like this gas station. As far as I am concerned you can have the political goodies, but coming from California I love the gas prices.
Above, driving toward Invesco Stadium -- home to the Denver Broncos -- and on Thursday the stage for Obama's passion play as he formally accepts his party's presidential nomination. 70,000 Dems will be packed in there. A several mile stretch of I-25 (from where this photo was taken) will be closed... surely making for a major travel and logistics mess.
The action for the first three days of the Convention is at the Pepsi Center (where I actually made the mistake of asking for Coke this evening-- dirty looks ensued). For the media (and for delegates starting today--Monday) getting into the place (especially with our mountain of gear) meant an hour in the broiling sun. That's our photog/editor Darryl Kim with the boxes full of stuff that makes television.
And here's some of the now-sun tanned broadcast and print reporters, phtographers and producers... SLOWLY making their way to the front of the long line, heavy boxes in tow. And, oh, check out those "rednecks."
From that point you haul the stuff into a fenced off area... turn all the electronics on, leave everything open and watch the Secret Service dog give it all the sniff test.
Once inside and at our cramped work space (we have the Fox stations from Minneapolis, Phoenix, and Miami practically on our laps... it was down to work... with John Schwada crafting the script for Sunday night's story.
In the piece -- which he introduced from a skybox overlooking the Pepsi Center convention floor -- we covered Sunday's protest march by several thousand left-leaning demonstrators through downtown, the latest McCain campaign attack ad, and previewed Hillary Clinton's appearance.
Then, from our perch high above it all, John did a live "tour" of the convention floor... from the Skyboxes to the big California section (biggest here) to the newly re-located Deleware delegates (brought out of the shadows by the addition to the ticket of their Senator Joe Biden) to the balloon-free rafters. First time I've ever seen that... no balloons to come down at the end of the nominee's acceptance speech. That's because the speech will be happening a mile and a half away at that football stadium.
So long for now.
Bob Tarlau | Senior News Producer | KTTV-KCOP Los Angeles
Aug 24, 2008 | 1:20 PM
Category:
Political
DENVER -- Saturday night/early Sunday in Denver... and it seemed like every cafe we passed at about 12:30AM had a roof top or patio party going... some folks we spotted with campaign buttons so it's clear the big local business bonanza that always goes with a major party political convention is in full steam.
Reporter John Schwada, photographer Darryl Kim and I blazed through the California delegation's HQ at the Sheraton in early evening... with many willing to talk about how much they thought Joe Biden was a fine choice as Barack Obama's #2. One die-heart Hillary Clinton delegate from San Francisco, however, fears a floor fight of some kind generated by some of her fellow Hillary lovers. Personally, Rachelle Franklin says she's all for party unity... but she's convinced that has yet to happen.
A 15 year old from San Diego wearing an Obama '08 vest was in the Sheraton lobby with her aunt—who was wearing Clinton buttons. They've now come together on Obama, they insist.
Last night, John did live reports (which those Californians and others on tape) into our 10P News on KTTV Fox 11 and KCOP My 13 from the roof of our Fox Denver friends at KDVR. A public thanks for their hospitality... especially long time friend and assistant news director Linda Hunter.
Fairly small protest marches are snaking their way through pre-assigned parade routes today (Sunday). Security is getting tighter and tighter around the Pepsi Center (Convention Central). After casing the town a bit this morning, we'll move our small mountain of gear into our workspace so that we can start reporting live from this week's political ground zero.
The star of the show isn't here yet, of course. Barack Obama – his vice presidential running mate selection sealed, with the formal announcement yesterday of Senator Joe Biden – is on the campaign trail... a winding road to Denver that is taking him through Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri and Montana before the nomination becomes his on Wednesday night.
Obviously one reason Biden was picked is that the loquacious Delaware senator brings more than verbiage to Obama's side. Biden is a foreign policy heavyweight with a decade longer in the Senate than the seasoned John McCain. That's almost three more decades of experience than his new boss, Obama.
A new poll finds McCain, who has not announced his running mate, holds a 2-1 lead over Obama as more knowledgeable on world affairs and as better suited to be commander in chief. So will Biden really help with that? Maybe not. This same poll – from ABC News and the Washington Post -- does give Obama a slight 49 percent to 43 percent overall lead. But it also finds that 75 per cent of those responding feel Biden will make no difference in their vote.
Meanwhile the McCain campaign is doing what it can to fan the fervor of jilted Hillary fans. A new ad says Obama snubbed her as a running mate because of her criticism of him. The ad features clips of Clinton during the primary battle saying critical things about Obama, including, "Senator Obama's campaign has become increasingly negative." A voiceover announcer says, "She won millions of votes but isn't on the ticket. Why? For speaking the truth."
The Obama and Clinton PR machines here rushed into action... trying to assure us all once again that Clinton strongly supports Obama now... and that the McCain ad is just making mischief.
This will certainly be a week of nasty-grams.
Aug 22, 2008 | 8:01 AM
Category:
Political
OFF TO DENVER
Fox 11 is hitting the road for Denver on Saturday… and we’ll blog and broadcast from Fox HQ just outside the Pepsi Center at Braun’s Bar and Grill – which might raise an eyebrow or two. But advance word has it the beer taps have been disconnected… and the kegs have been rolled out of there.
I am sure we’ll all get intoxicated by the rich political brew anyway. Reporter John Schwada and I have covered a lot of these conventions… and it’s always a heady experience of being on the floor during the height of the evening session.
Photographer/Editor Darryl Kim makes up the third member of our team. We start blogging and broadcasting from Denver on Saturday (the first night from our friends at KDVR Fox 31 in Denver)… and are due to wrap-up mid-morning Fri Aug 29.
John’s one of the great writers in the TV news business. His most recent blog recalling other convention moments – both memorable and forgettable – is wonderful reading.
Here’s a link to it on the myfoxla.com website.
THE VERY CLOSE RACE
So the conventions loom and the White House race has turned from Barack Obama holding a soft lead to a real tossup. John McCain has been surging and in most of the polls out this week he’d narrowed the contest to a statistical dead-heat, halving Barack Obama's opinion poll leads.
A CBS/New York Times poll found Senator McCain had punched deep into Obama's advantage in just two weeks, while an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey confirmed the finding, revealing the Illinois senator's lead had "nearly disappeared."
The latest national figures came with the media fixated over the vice presidential picks of each candidate and ahead of an intense two-and-a-half month sprint towards polling day in November. At this writing, Obama says he’s made a choice but hasn’t said yet who it is – and McCain appears ready to announce his running mate on Fri Apr 29 (in a well timed ploy to try and steal a bit of the Democrats’ thunder coming out of their convention). Time Magazine is out with a web prediction that it will be Indiana’s popular Evan Bayh. Others say Joe Biden has it. We’ll soon see who is right.
In both the CBS and NBC polls, Obama leads McCain 45 to 42 percent. The Democrat had led by six points last month. The NBC poll, however, found McCain's supporters to be much less enthusiastic than Obama's, and found widespread concern among voters about his age. McCain is 72 on Aug 29 (the very day that he's likely to reveal his choice for VP). Obama turned 47 on Aug 4.
Also this week, a new George Washington University survey found McCain led the accelerating race by a single point, suggesting his new robust strategy was paying off.
McCain appears to have closed the gap partly by stressing energy policy, as 40 percent of those polled by George Washington University said he was the best bet to peg back high gasoline prices compared to 37 percent who liked Obama.
In May, Obama had led on that question by 19 percent, but McCain's demands for an expansion of off-shore oil drilling appeared to be bearing fruit, despite Democratic claims it would do little to cut prices at the pump.
TURNING NASTY
The dueling campaigns certainly ratcheted up the negative this week. McCain – obviously enjoying his new momentum – chided Obama for, as McCain put it, getting "a little testy.” So Obama sharpened his rhetoric a bit further, saying of McCain: "I honor his service. I don't honor his policies. I don't honor his politics." Obama is taking on McCain with renewed vigor – just as some Democrats fret that their candidate has not been aggressive enough.
Both candidates also unveiled fresh attack ads ahead of their back-to-back national conventions. Trying anew to tie McCain to George W. Bush (now with a 29 percent approval rating in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll), Obama's TV commercial asks: "Can we really afford more of the same?" It slams McCain's tax plan as a giveaway for big corporations and oil companies.
McCain's radio ad claims: "Celebrities like to spend their millions. Barack Obama is no different. Only it's your money he wants to spend."
Democrats – both privately and publicly – now question whether Obama has a second act beyond his message of change and wonder whether he can throw an effective punch against a Republican Party willing to play hardball.
Obama was confronted by those concerns at a town hall meeting in
Virginia this week, when a woman told him McCain was running a lot of negative ads. Her question: "You think you can win by taking the higher ground? I worry about you." To that Obama insisted he's up for the fight. In his words: “I'm skinny but I'm tough. We will hit back with the truth. We intend to win this election."
Yet Republicans are emboldened by their improving poll numbers:
Even some ardent critics of the way McCain has run his campaign see a way he could win even though Bush's low popularity plus war and economic distress have created a dreadful political environment for the GOP.
HOUSING CRISIS?
On Thursday, we saw McCain create his own mini-housing crisis. When Politico.com asked him how many houses he and his multi-millionaire wife own, McCain fumbled the answer badly… saying he didn’t know. "I think — I'll have my staff get to you," he mumbled. The real answer – says the AP – is at least nine on seven properties. Ooops! The Democrats smelled blood in the water and Obama smartly seized the moment – with his team quickly producing a biting TV ad – and the candidate himself using a series of campaign stops to portray McCain as wealthy and out of touch. With the economy the top issue in the race, Obama is obviously trying to turn McCain's gaffe into one of those moments that stick in voters' minds.
Scratch the archives and out tumbles John Kerry sail boarding or the first President Bush wowed by a grocery store checkout scanner (and not having a clue about the price of a loaf of bread), John Edwards with his $400 haircut, Michael Dukakis riding in a tank or Gerald Ford eating a tamale with the husk still on. Yes, some campaign trail stumbles do take on a life of their own.
Think it might not be that big a deal-- that it will blow over by tomorrow? Well the broadcast networks did Obama a favor… either leading with the story Thursday night or playing it second. Plus, you can bet the McCain miscue is getting written into some of next week’s Democratic Convention speeches.
But the Republicans say McCain’s brand is too well established, that this won’t hurt him. And the GOP political machine did fight back fast, responding with a Web site highlighting Obama's ties to Chicago businessman Antonin "Tony" Rezko, a friend and contributor who was convicted in June on more than a dozen felonies in a corruption scandal.
Obama and his wife bought their home in Chicago in 2005 for $1.6 million after getting advice from Rezko. The corruption case had no connection to Obama, and Obama has said it was a mistake to work with Rezko on buying the house. But the Rezko business keeps coming back to bite him.
Back to packing all the stuff – paperwork, computers, extra hard drives, wires and more wires – that you have to take with you on a venture like this.
More from Denver over the weekend.
Aug 15, 2008 | 9:01 AM
Category:
Political
THE CLINTONS: “EXRACTING RANSOM”
It’d been a guessing game for weeks… what role did Barack Obama have in mind for the Clintons at the Democratic Convention – which starts Mon Aug 25 in Denver? We now have the answer… both the former president and the current senator from New York will get plum prime time speaking windows Much more important – although totally symbolic – is that the vanquished Hillary Clinton will be placed in nomination beside Obama.
It’s clearly a move to give her frustrated supporters a final chance to publically vent and hopefully – for the Democrats at least – to heal those divisive primary season wounds. So on the Wednesday night traditional state-by-state roll call vote… we’ll hear each delegation sing out with X number of votes for Obama and Y number of votes for Clinton. When that occurs, Clinton – herself a superdelegate who gets a vote – is expected to release her delegates to Obama, announce her support for him and ask her backers to do the same.
Yet while the fix is in – and Obama still gets the nomination and gives a thundering acceptance speech in the Denver Broncos football stadium the next night – all that high-profile Clinton action, spread over at least half of the convention’s four prime-time speaking nights, ensures an enormous presence for a super-power couple who have been national fixates in the Democratic Party since 1992.
There’s a big risk in this – one Obama would be keenly aware of – and that is the Clintons could wind up overshadowing him. In fact, the party has a history of other Democrats showing-up the guest of honor.
I remember that well while being in the hall in Boston when the keynote speaker – an up-till-then little known fellow named Barack Obama – seemed to get more love and better reviews than hometown nominee John Kerry. And remember it was Kerry who selected the up-and-comer to speak. That very morning, Obama stepped into the Fox 11 fourth-story broadcast skybox and extended his hand and it actually took me a few seconds to realize who he was (I wasn’t expecting to see him there). Back in ’88, Jesse Jackson stole Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis’ show in Atlanta and Ted Kennedy’s “dream will never die” speech brought down New York’s Madison Square Garden during Jimmy Carter’s 1980 soiree.
To try and guard against that, Obama’s keynote speaker – Mark Warner of Virginia – will deliver his address the same night Clinton does – Tue Aug 26 – while the ex-president shares the next day – Wed Aug 27 – with the yet-to-be-named vice presidential running mate. Then, as I mentioned, Obama triumphantly shuts it all down on Thr Aug 28 from the football field.
Fierce rivals then but wary allies now, Obama and Clinton agreed to put both their names into nomination after weeks of negotiations. They made the announcement yesterday (Thr Aug 14) in a collegial joint statement that noted that some 35 million people participated in the primary and that both wanted to “honor and celebrate these voices and votes.”
Obama probably really didn’t want it to play out this way – but in reality was left with little choice. He absolutely needs Clinton and her legion of loyalists.
Of the Clintons, Doug Muzzio, a professor of politics at Baruch College in New York, told the AP: “In a sense, they’ve got Obama hostage and are extracting their ransom” with their convention involvement.
Well said.
WORRISOME SIGNS FOR OBAMA
It was just last month that Time magazine was suggesting that John McCain was in danger of sliding down from a “long shot” to a “no shot.” Around the same time, a hard-noised former Clinton insider declared the race “effectively over” thanks to the McCain campaign’s ineptitude, the tanking of the American economy and Obama’s advantages in cash, charisma and hope. And Obama, up by three to six points nationally, was about to leverage a much-anticipated trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe into a pre-convention poll surge.
That might have been the script. But events haven’t played by that. Instead, Obama supporters seem to be suffering a kind of pre-Denver panic attack, watching as McCain draws incrementally closer in state and national polls – with Rasmussen’s most recent daily tracker showing a statistical dead heat.
Clinton’s pollster Mark Penn recently red-flagged Obama’s lukewarm leads among white female voters and Hispanics – while saying it would take only a five point swing to turn a presumed Obama win into a McCain landslide.
Obama’s aides point to the stability of his small national lead, say they aren’t worried about his summer stall and think his numbers will improve when voters begin tuning into the conventions. The campaign’s confidence may turn out to be justified but we’re now going into the week prior to the Democratic affair and there are definite worrisome signs for Obama.
Race is the unspoken one. It hurts me personally to say it, but doesn’t this come down to whether enough white people are going to support a black guy? As one political professor put it the other day: “If Obama was a tall, skinny white guy named Paul Jones this would be a different story.”
A major question remains: how much does Obama’s race factor into tightening contests in Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota and Ohio? Nobody knows – and that’s the problem.
A huge challenge for Obama, insiders say, is simply determining how much skin color will matter in November. Race is nearly impossible to poll – no one ever says “I’m a racist” – and no campaign wants it revealed they are even asking questions on the issue.
Obama’s strength in Virginia may be overhyped. His chances of ending the Democrats’ 44-year losing streak in the commonwealth are said by many there to be pretty good. But Obama campaign insiders have said privately his odds in Virginia are probably no better than 50-50 and that the state is far from a lock-solid hedge if he loses Ohio and Florida.
Michigan’s in play for McCain. In the year of the down turn, the hard-hit upper Midwest should be prime Obama country. Instead it’s a political minefield. Obama is still ahead by two to five points there – similar to margins of victory enjoyed by Gore and Kerry in the last two presidential contests – but McCain has quietly crept up over the past month. And I think he could vault ahead in Michigan if he picks native son and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for VP.
Yet another worry: Obama also hasn’t pulled away in other Democrat-friendly neighboring states, watching leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota erode over the past month.
Finally, bad times could be good for McCain. If anger helps Democrats, fear might give the advantage to the GOP. A growing number of Democratic strategists worry that some swing states may opt for McCain if the economy veers from merely awful to downright terrifying.
The good news for Obama, of course, is that McCain – who infamously admitted he “never understood” economics – is loathed by unions. And let’s face it, McCain was awash in ill-defined policy at the start of the housing meltdown and he has yet to come up with a coherent economic approach that doesn’t include the words “offshore drilling.”
But there’s only more thing: There are some pundits saying Americans may actually want a divided government. The thinking here is that a possible Democratic landslide in congressional races could backfire on Obama. A New York based political consultant was quoted – not by name, for obvious reasons – by Politico.com as saying: “Fairly or not, folks think he’s pretty liberal and nobody wants a pair of Pelosi’s running things.”
Former Nebraska senator and governor and presidential candidate himself Bob Kerrey adds: “The country’s still pretty divided… people may want a divided government. They want change but I’m not sure that the Democratic agenda has the support of a majority of Americans.”
Now, once again, time for your take. I’ll be blogging from the Fox 11 News HQ in Denver during the Democratic Convention. Of course, this time Obama isn’t going to wander up to our skybox with just one aide as he did in 2004. But just in case he does, I can assure you the recognition, on my part, will be instant.
Aug 8, 2008 | 10:39 AM
Category:
Political
NO VP CANDIDATES… YET!
My prediction that I might be pondering the major candidates' vice presidential picks this week has – so far – gone astray. There are no picks to ponder. Maybe this coming week… but then there’s the Olympic competition for voters attention. Of course, the end of the Olympics is right up against the start of the Democratic Convention in Denver. Tight calendar and tough decisions. Or maybe we’ll just see the curtains rise on the VP picks amid the blaze of the conventions themselves… a ratings booster for sure.
OBAMA GOES FOR IT IN SEVEN GOP STATES
Now, let’s consider these seven states… all long time Republican stalwarts. Alaska is young. Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia have growing populations and many black voters. Montana has seen recent Democratic inroads, and North Dakota has sent only Democrats to Congress since 1986. Indiana borders Barack Obama's home state.
The Democratic presidential candidate is pouring money and manpower into all seven of them — at levels unmatched by Republican rival John McCain. For decades, these states have almost exclusively voted for Republican presidential candidates. So they have rarely seen any campaign action. Now, thanks in part to demographic and political shifts, they are emerging as new battlegrounds.
Obama’s campaign chief David Plouffe puts it this way: "We have the organizational ability and the financial ability to compete there, There is not a head fake among them." Undeterred, senior McCain strategist Steve Schmidt counters: "We feel very confident about holding these states." He also expressed optimism that McCain can win several Democratic-leaning perennial swing targets.
In the seven historically GOP bastions, Obama has run five six weeks of TV ads and dispatched dozens of workers to sign up legions of unregistered voters that his campaign believes can be persuaded to support the Illinois senator in droves if courted aggressively. Among their targets are blacks and young people, two constituencies that favor Obama but historically have been unreliable voters.
McCain is largely absent from most of these states, trusting for now that right-leaning well rooted supporters in all seven will prevail. Unlike McCain, Obama had a presence in all seven during the protracted Democratic primaries and that could benefit him.
But Republicans — and even some skeptical Democrats — claim Obama simply is trying to lure McCain into spending money defending GOP turf so he has less to compete with elsewhere.
That’s probably true, but can McCain afford to gamble that previously solid conservative majorities in all seven states will stay that way?
NEW BOOK CLAIMS OBAMA’S A LEFTY, NOT A REFORMER
The first serious negative biography of Senator Barack Obama casts the Democratic nominee as a fake reformer and a real liberal. The book is “The Case Against Barack Obama,” by National Review’s David Freddoso, obviously no friend of Democrats. I haven’t read it yet… but Politico.com says Freddoso blasts Obama for failing to take on the Chicago machine, for listening to “radical advisors,” and for backing “doctrinaire liberal” causes from teachers unions to abortion rights.
It does not, however, compare him to Paris Hilton, or dwell at length on his religion or race – making the substance of his “Case Against Barack Obama” somewhat fresh amid a campaign cacophony of hyperbolic web ads and alleged race cards.
But Freddoso also has some strong advice for McCain, his campaign and Republicans at large… contending that they are making the wrong case against Obama.
“I don’t think you beat Obama by saying that he’s Paris Hilton,” said Freddoso, referring to McCain’s latest advertising campaign. “The more important thing is really to look at is he who he says he is? Is he really this great reformer?”
Freddoso’s book, released this wee
