Blizzard-on-GFS's Blog

Well this maybe the last night this website is still visited lol.   Robs new website looks awesome and will probably be a lot better than myfoxphilly.  I'd encourage everyone to make the move over to robguarino.com.   Its been a fun couple of years on this website.  These blogs really sparked my interest in weather forecasting.  cant wait to blog with everyone.  PS good luck rob with your future, whether it be here at fox or where ever you end up!

 

Sever Weather Tommorow!

 

The strong cold front sparking up tornadoes in the middle of the country looks to arrive here late tomorrow night (7-12 pm).  The models are between having the severe weather in central PA and Having the Severe weather along the I-95 corridor.  We will have to use nowcasting to get this one right.   Look for strong to sever storms to possibly affect the area between 6-10 pm tomorrow.  Main threat will be strong winds with an isolated tornado possible.  Some small hail could also be associated with the stronger storms as thunderstorms in the fall tend to have colder temperatures aloft making it easier to produce hail.

 

PS- i do more reading then posting. 

 

 What a storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

What an impressive storm.  With the barometric pressure of a catagory 2 hurricane its gonna whallop the shoreline.  This will be a sight to see.  The winds will be much like when hurricane Floyd affected the area.  Expect waves well excess in 8 feet probably around 10-16 feet!  Snow well north and west of the city and flooding just about everywher else.  Its going to pack a big punch as it may stick around for up to 3 days.  The storm will start sometime sunday morning.  Here is my forecast.

 

Wind-

All coastal regions within 15 miles of the shore- Sustained winds of 40-50 mph its gonna be nasty gusts up to 70 mph!!!!!!  In combination with the strong persisting winds high gusts and storm surge the spring tide will reek havov on the shoreline.   Widespread power outages and devestating surge damage as well as a farir amount of wind damage.The worst storm to hit the nj coast since 1992.

Central corridor of nj going north to south-   Strong sustained winds just under tropical storm force from 30-40 mph.  Scattered power outages.  Gusts 45-55 mph.

I-95 west to allentown running north to south-  Sustained winds of 25-35 mph.  Gusts from 40-55 mph.  Possible power outages.  Will cause alot of trees to fall.

 West of allentown-  Breezy with sustained winds of 15-20 mph.  Gusts to 40 mph.  No damage or power outages expected.

 

 

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 MY thinkings for the greater phily area.

 

Again with this storm the main concern is the flooding winds and damage to the coastline.  However we probably will see at least a tiny bit of snow monday as colder air works into the back of the system.  AT A MAXIMUM 3 inches probably a coating to an inch, however this must be watched.  Rainfall should be anywhere from 2-5 inches.  YES a lot of rain is expected causing a lot of flooding with the river due to the 2 inches of rain we just saw thurday.  The pocconos, sussex county, and anywhere west of lancaster are fair game for significant snowfall acumulations probably around 6-12 inches.

Sooooooooooooo.........................   stay tuned this storm will have in impact on your plans so be prepared.

 

 

JOE.

 

 

Clipper Update

Well the models have dropped a little bit in the snow totals bue heavier snow band moved towards the t we will still see accumulating snow. Right now my call is 2-4 inches. The snow will start around 7 a.m. and end around 4-6 p.m. Remember how the last storm the heaviest band was near the shore when it was supposed to be north of I-95? Well I wouldn't be supprised if the heaviest band forecast to be to our south ends up here and we pick up 3-5 inches so we will have to watch as the snow develops. This will be a powdery snow and will blow around. Looking at the numbers it doesn't sound like much but 3 inches completely covers the grass and roads and causes travel problems. Im expecting most schools to release students early. I will have a short update tommorow.

Mercer-Bucks-Monmuth-
2-4 inches possible.

Burlington-Philly-Ocean-Lancaster- and points south and west to dover.
3-5 inches with localy 6 inches.

Dc area
2-4 inches a little less because of a little mixing with rain.

Norfolk-
Will see a good amount of precip on the fringe of mixing a coating to 1 inch.

Middlesex-Warren-Bergen-Pessaic
1-2 inches

Sussex and Pocconos-
Coating to an inch.

Sorry about that last post. I couldnt find the time to update it, the models went snow-happy and changed their ideas the next day. Today, was the first day of snow this season. A lake effect squall traveled through Pennyslvania and into New Jersey bringin a very short but moderate burst of snow. It was about time, its the middle of January and we just saw our first snowflakes! THE PATTERN IS CHANGING.
Below are my thoughts.


Many people right now are in shock of this recent record-setting warmth. Its crazy how the tempture can climb up to 76 degrees in the middle of january. January is supposed to be cold and snow, not flowers and shorts. Well if your one of those people who enjoy this warmth looks like your luck has changed, we will be lucky if we see a stretch of two or more days above 40 degrees in the next 30 days. WINTERHAS FINALLY ARRIVED. For all those people who have written this winter off, guess again. The pattern is shifting causing the jet stream to dive south, very south. This means that instead of storms coming through pittsburgh and dumping us with rain as well as 60 degree weather the storms will dip south head along the coastline, strengthen, and dump us with snow. The reason for this extending period of warmth was that el nino was causing the jetstream to stay more level and north of the mid-atlantic. This type of jet stream brings in warm weather from the gulf as well as the pacific. Unfortunately, we were locked in this pattern for a very long time. All that is going to change. Next week a very large airmass over SIBERIA will unite with a very large canadain airmass and head south all the way into Tennesse. This cold air will be locked in for a long time and their appears to be no other warm airmass brewing. So this means we will see average high tempatures of 34 degress in this period and will see many days in the 20's. As this cold air diggs south it will bend the trough down leading storms up along the coast which means lots of snow. Meteoroligists everywhere are starting to agree with this idea. A chief editor of accuweather.com predicts this 2nd half of winter will compete with the top five coldest stretches in history possibly the coldest of them all. COLD WEATHER + ACTIVE STORM TRACK+ JET STREAM BENDING= A LOT OF SNOW!!! Finally, something to look foreward too. Get ready becuase winters coming and its gonna come with vengance.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS,


LOOKS like christmas will be fairly mild with some showers. However, I can almost guarantee we will see our first snow of the season this week. For a while the GFS has been thinking that a noreaster will form off the coast on December, 30th! This one model run would be 2-4 inches for the city 6-12 for the burbs and 8-12 in NYC. Even if this is'nt a full-fledged noreaster we could still see at least some flakes flying!
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25th-26th COULD IT SNOW?


There is a slight chance we could see a small amount of snow if this storm pulls down some cold air as it travels northeast. If so we could get some snow with the backlash precipatation, christmas night into the 26th. If this happens expect around a coating to 2 inches, but dont get your hopes up fo this storm....... 18% chance

So one thing is for sure this week will be interesting!

Merry Christmas and Have a happy holidays!!!